Last Saturday, I saw the film Million Dollar Baby one more time. I remember one scene where the dirty fighter Billie the Blue Dog knocked down her boxing opponent to the mat, and as she was trying to slowly get back on her feet, Billie knocked her back down again, hard!
With that image, I think I can formulate a perfect analogy for how, in my personal opinion, the 2006 election will turn out to be. Granted there are a few more primaries to consider (including the August Connecticut Primary), but as an indication from Tuesday's results, to get our hopes and expectations up that we will gain control of either the House or Senate will be seriously damaging to our psyche.
The reason - old habits die hard.
Democrats (not the new-school, netroots Democrats, but the ones that still hold a considerable amount of power) got hit with a hard knock-down punch in 2004 when Kerry failed to beat Bush, and the party failed to retake any house in Congress. We failed in a system where the Republicans were legions better in GOTV efforts and doing what needed to be done to win, regardless if their tactics were dirty or not supported by the masses. We have been trying to get back up on our feet ever since.
Now, instead of adapting a new style to throw the Republicans off guard just enough for us to take advantage of the fight, the Democrats are trying to get back up with the same knowledge and game plan they've have always had. The Republicans know this, as do the voters. That's why I think come November 2006, when the Democrats are ready to get back up, instead of the Dems dodging the incoming hit, the Republicans will come back with an equally hard knock-out blow to put them down for the count.
Then, and only then, will Democrats finally realize that a brand new game plan and method of action will be needed.
I'm not saying we should not put more effort into the races of 2006. Who knows, we may actually do what is increasingly becoming the impossible - regain control of the House or Senate or even both. However, I think our expectations for such a change should be focused more on 2008 than 2006. Why? Because old habits die hard.
I agree with Hesiod - the tide is SO in our favor that the Democrats should regain control of at least the House, AT LEAST the House! But yet, the expectations that we once had are being lowered, and the question is not what kind of change will the Democrats bring to Washington or how much of a landslide this election will be for them, but what will the Democrats do this time to lose again?
The Beltway Democrats cannot understand why that is the current CW. Given that, maybe to lose in such a favorable environment will finally force the Democrats to realize that the old rules of the game no longer apply.
One thing is certain though. Voters are mad as hell right now at so many issues they have to deal with, and are equally mad at a Congress that seemingly does not recognize their own constituents. The voters are demanding change and they want change, badly. The only problem is that some are either assuming that it will be done or are being very cynical about it.
People had their fears played in 2004, but by the end of 2005, the people finally began to wise up and realize that what they voted for was just not working. The American people are turning against the kind of government they have had for the last five years. If nothing really changes after this November, people will not understand how what they had before and seriously disliked is back in the saddle once again.
If a noticeable change, like Democrats taking control of the House, does not come after Election Day 2006 (and make no mistake about it, they should!), it will not be a signal to the voters that there is something wrong with them, although the pundits will spin it that way. Instead, it will be a signal to the voters that there is something deeply wrong not just with this country but, most importantly, with the current system and parties in place. Voters will not be able to look and say they are getting what they voted for with yet another pending two years of Republican-controlled government, a government that is seen unfavorably by more than 60% of the public according to most polls.
And that is when real change will come.
I have a friend of mine who began drinking at a young age, early teens. He smoked some and stayed away from all the other hard drugs, but boy did he drink. After only six years of that lifestyle, he felt sick one day and went to the doctor. He wasn't prepared for what the doctor told him - his kidneys were shriveling, and that if he wanted to live past the age of 30, he had better get his act together. Today, while he still drinks on occasion, it is in huge moderation, and he has lessened his partying lifestyle drastically to where he does not really party that much anymore. It took a drastic consequence of his body almost shutting down before my friend did anything really differently, and to this day, he considers it one of the best moves of his life.
There should really be no excuse why the Democrats can't at least pick up the House, but then again, old habits die hard, and sometimes the consequences of those old habits have to be so drastic that they force people to no longer do them. Nobody wants the Democrats to fail, but based on this past Tuesday's results, the chances of them failing look about as likely now as them winning.