Short and straight: the first major poll of Democratic likely 2008 Iowa caucuses attendees has Edwards at 30%, Clinton at 26%, Kerry at 12%, and Vilsack at 10% with others bringing up the far rear.
So, "many people" assume that Hillary Clinton is running for President in 2008. One reason I don't include myself in that group is I think there are too many apparent obstacles to her being successful. Such as the fact that she'll have a ferocious fight on her hands for the nomination. A bitter nomination fight only leaves her bloodied and poor going into a general election where the GOP will prepare for her as if they were running in an olympic triathlon.
Today's Des Moines Register Poll confirms as much. Iowa Democrats already have a favorite over Hillary, and it's not Tom Vilsack:
The poll confirms that with John Edwards at 30% he remains in an excellent position to win the 2008 Iowa caucuses. Also, take into account that most of the key advisors for the new Iowa Democratic gubernatorial nominee, Chet Culver, worked for John Edwards in 2004 and by all accounts will work for him again in 2008...in Iowa. Lastly, Edwards is making his 9th trip since Jan 2005 to Iowa, today. As usual, he's being vastly underestimated by the national political class.
Clinton's 26% will do damage to her current national aura of inevitability. While Edwards has an unfavorability rating of 11%, Clinton's is 25% (Kerry's is 26% and Vilsack is at 23%). This poll will stand as an ominous thunder clap in Hillaryland that will force a reevaluation of future plans.
The other major headline to come out of this is that Vilsack is only at 10% in his native party of the state of which he is currently governor. This puts major brakes on the Vilsack '08 plans which were beginning to pick-up steam. Tom Vilsack and the rest of the national political class just learned that Vilsack is not Tom Harkin.
Full disclosure: I'm a Bayh guy...who registered at 2% in the DMR poll.