Crossposted from SmokeyMonkey.org.
This diary is an attempt to provide a logical framework in which to discuss the phenomenon known as "Global Warming". While scientifically the debate may be over and a general consensus reached, scientific knowledge trickles into the modern consciousness somewhat more slowly than we would like. Therefore, one will often come up against foolish or irrelevent or debunked arguments against the reality of global warming. Being armed with logic and factual arguments can overcome that historical inertia.
The commonsense argument breaks down nicely to 6 points:
The Argument
- Average surface temperatures are increasing
- Average atmospheric temperatures are rising
- Such global warming is due to the "greenhouse effect".
- "Greenhouse gases" create the "greenhouse effect".
- Humans have increased levels of "greenhouse gases" in the atmosphere.
- Humans exacerbate global warming.
Read on to explore some of the evidence supporting each hypothesis.
The Evidence
I believe every hypothesis has very strong supporting evidence, which I intend to display in this article.
Hypothesis 1: Average surface temperatures are increasing. NASA has data on trends in surface temperature dating from 1880, when worldwide geological observation truly began. Surface temperatures reflect the lows and highs that our local meteorologist predicts and records daily, averaged over the entire planet. NASA has demonstrated the first hypothesis. In fact, they are convinced enough to give it a cutsy title: Earth Gets a Warm Feeling All Over.
Hypothesis 2: Average atmospheric temperatures are rising. Atmospheric temperature can be a contentious part of the argument, as it can be misconstrued. I think this NASA webpage makes clear the difference between stratospheric temperatures, which are influenced strongly by local heating events such as volcanoes, and tropospheric temperatures, which are effected more strongly by oceanic currents such as El Nino. ClimateScience.gov has released a report that reconciles differences in atmospheric temperature data. The concern is that many local heating events can in fact influence the datasets used to analyze the atmosphere. Obviously, you are adding another dimension that needs to accounted for: altitude. Therefore, the modelling is more complex. However, it would appear from this that stratospheric temperatures are, in fact, rising.
Hypothesis 3: Such global warming is due to the "greenhouse effect". The greenhouse effect is, also, misunderstood by some to mean global warming in the greater sense. This is not the case. We like the greenhouse effect because without it surface temperatures would be sub-freezing. Our atmosphere creates the greenhouse effect and global warming is due to changes in the atmosphere. The greenhouse effect is indisputable; it is the very reason we exist. Check out this EPA Kid's Site for a simple explanation and a neat little flash animation.
Hypothesis 4: "Greenhouse gases" create the "greenhouse effect". It is indisputable that the gases in an atmosphere are responsible for the environment on any planet. Having virtually no atmosphere, the moon is a barren rock; having a thick atmosphere of carbon dioxide, Venus' surface temperature is around 872 Fahrenheit. The most important greenhouse gases are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide.
Hypothesis 5: Humans have increased levels of "greenhouse gases" in the atmosphere. This should go without saying. For the sake of it, here is a breakdown of the types of energy humans in the United States use. Note that all not listed as "non-fossil" emit carbon dioxide.
[DOE] The U.S. produces about 25 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels; primarily because our economy is the largest in the world and we meet 85 percent of our energy needs through burning fossil fuels.
Hypothesis 6: Humans exacerbate global warming. It takes only the simple admission to the above that gives this conclusion its power. Humans are unlike any other species on the planet in our ubiquitous abuse of natural resources. Our greenhouse gas emissions are but one aspect of the self-inflicted destruction humans precipitate upon the planet. It is an aspect we should be able to control, however.
Previous diaries:
Why Not to Drill in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge
Our Future is Melting Away
Global Warming Increases Glacial Earthquakes
NASA Studies Retreating Glaciers
Largest Coral Reef Die-off Ever
Thank you for reading. For further reading:
NOAA Global Warming FAQ
EPA on Global Warming
Energy Information Administration of the Department of Energy has specific numbers for US greenhouse gas emissions.