The Bush Administration tried everything to keep peace away from Somalia. They abandoned and isolated the chaotic nation. They put
warships off the Somalia coast. Then, in the most morally repugnant action of all, they gave guns and money to the
exact same warlords that killed American soldiers in 1993.
But this last step completely backfired, and now the Somalia people are closer to an actual working government and peace than any time since the 1980's. And as you might imagine, the Bush Administration, in its usual "sour grapes" moment, has
ruled out any contact with the new leader of Somalia.
But the world is moving past the Bush Administration.
Two weeks ago I created
this diary detailing what had happened in Somalia since "Black Hawk Down". It explained the rise of the Islamic Courts as Somalians looked for a way to solve disputes, and how those courts went into the business of security and police protection, schools and health care, and then eventually into powerful militias.
In response to the rise in their popularity, the Bush Administration funded a coalition of warlords...and that was a
kiss of death.
The Joint Islamic Courts militias appeared Thursday to have defeated the warlords after capturing their last two strongholds, and have vowed to rapidly open Sharia courts in the areas under its control.
Only a few months ago, this would have been impossible for lack of public support, experts said.
But the US support for the warlord Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism -- hated by the population -- sparked a wave of anti-American sentiment that massively boosted support for the Islamists, they said.
Karin von Hippel, a former UN expert on Somalia and member of the US Center for Strategic and International Studies, says that by backing the warlords, Washington encouraged the Islamic courts to take up arms.
In other words, the Bush Administration created exactly the scenerio they tried to stop from happening.
Now technically, Somalia already had a "government" that was internationally recognized. However, it was a joke. When Abdullahi Yusuf, President of
Puntland, was elected the President of Somalia on October 10, 2004, the election was held in Nairobi, Kenya. The session of Parliament was also held in Nairobi, and "the government" refused to even enter Somalia. So while the governments of the world recognized this body as the government of Somalia, it leaves the average person to wonder who exactly it represented (much less who voted for it).
When the Islamists drove out the warlords, the Somalia "government" appealed to the African Union to send peacekeepers. Since they never bothered to ask for peacekeepers when warlords were ravaging the countryside, their obvious motivation was the threat of peace happening without them being involved. Somalians
have had enough with foreign troops on their soil. The Islamists reacted by starting to
encircle the Somalian "government" outpost at Baidoa. This brought the "government" to the table to negotiate.
And so, within the past two weeks, the ICU has:
* destroyed the warlords
* forged agreements with influential clan leaders
* come to a
powersharing agreement with the internationally recognized Somalia "government".
With this consolidation of power, the changes in Mogadishu have been startling to say the least.
Things have never been so quiet, he says. Two weeks ago AK-47s sold for $550 as fresh fighting consumed the city. This week, he cannot move them for $350.
"Before, there were always two or three groups that I could sell to. Now there is just the Islamic courts and we are worried that they will bring peace here and put us out of business," he says.
Of course what is bad for the gun dealers is generally
good for everyone else.
For the most part, Somalis have welcomed the elimination of roadblocks manned by drug-addled teens who extorted money on warlords' orders and robbed, raped and killed with impunity.
Elmer Mahmoud Mohammed, a 52-year-old worker at El-Maan port, said he was thrilled that the warlords and their militiamen were gone.
"It is much better, it is quiet, there is no war," he said, standing on the beach where almost all of Somalia's imports are brought ashore by small barges and more than 10,000 laborers.
At a new $7 million Coca-Cola bottling plant, acting general manager Mohammed Hassan Awale said the end of the warlord era was good for business.
"Before we had gunmen accompanying our distributors, now no guns are needed," he said. "If there is peace, there is opportunity for work, for business and people will have money to buy Coke."
So what's not to like about the end of 17 years of war and chaos? Ask the guys who backed the wrong horse.
The Bush Administration is convinced that the ICU is
harboring al-Qaeda terrorists. Where did they get that information? From the
same warlords who called themselves the Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism (ARPCT) in order to get American taxpayer dollars from gullible neocons.
You have to remember that when the news media approached the Bush Administration about allegations of funds going to Somalian warlords, the first reaction by the Administration was to
lie about their involvement. Then, when diplomats in the State Department warned that the policy was misguided, those same diplomats had their
careers cut short.
Meamwhile Marchal said it was essential for the international community to open up channels of communication with the moderate elements in the Islamic courts as soon as possible.
"To cry that this is an Al-Qaeda plot will only radicalise the population. We are busy creating an enemy that didn't exist two months ago."
But creating enemies seems to be the grand design of this administration. And so the Bush Administration continues to stumble along, creating enemies, causing policies to backfire, and ignoring warnings along the way.
The Islamists are a fractured group of ethnic clans. The only reason they united and won was because of our support of the warlords. Their continued success at consolidating power is partly because of Bush's continued opposition to them. It is starting to look like Somalia just may find its way to peace simply because Bush doesn't want it to happen.
How ironic.