Bob Herberts op-ed column articulated the left's outrage and fear that General Casey's drawdown plan is just a Karl Rove "head-fake" to mollify the electorate with meaningless withdrawals until we get past the November elections. The outrage is justified, the fear that Rove is playing politics with the lives of our troops is real, but Herbert may have missed the real dynamic between Casey, the military and the administration ...
... Muledriver was on the right track with his diary comments on Herberts column:
The fact that the military has prepared a withdrawal plan consistent with the Democratic proposal shows that the Republicans are out of touch and and demonstrates that their accusations that a troop withdrawal plan represents a desire to "cut and run" is nothing more than political gamesmanship.
What I have not seen considered, is that Casey's plan is the real deal, and it is not consistent with Republican political strategy. Tony Snow's comments and Bush's pandering are intended to distract the base from the Casey drawdown plan until we get past the November election. I know that long term memory is apparently a liability in the blogosphere, but it was only last April that five retired Generals were calling for Rumsfeld's head. Why would we think that military dissatisfaction with administration strategy is limited to retired generals (who can talk openly) and not active generals (who cannot talk openly)? Presenting withdrawal plans to the ideologs in this administration may be the only vehicle for the military to communicate their strategic preference. The Casey plan creates a real political problem for Rove. Let's call it "The 38%er Problem" in deference to the hard-core support from 38% of the population that still think the President is doing a good job on Iraq. That 38% must be motivated and turn out in November for the Republicans to retain Congress. In fact, with the redistricting and the political dice heavily loaded for incumbents, that 38% may be all that is needed for the Republicans to retain control. Those 38%ers are motivated by "stay the course" and really do not want to hear anything out of the Bush adminstration except "stay the course". The Casey plan just does not sound like "stay the course". It actually sounds closer to "cut and run". Hence the problem. It is just too hard to explain - even for Karl Rove. An Iraq exit plan now presents real political risk with the core Republican base.
Getting behind the military and the Casey plan may be the right solution for the Democratic Party in '06 as well as the right thing to do for the country.
This diary is an excerpted and edited x-post from the most recent post at Divided We Stand United We Fall.