Israel is back in Lebanon. No one, and not one square inch is safe, they say. It's Israel against Hezbollah and Friends, Round Number two thousand and six.
But this time out, Olmert has the world's largest military at his beck and call, his to toy with with. He doesn't even have to pay for it -- hell, the Americans will pay their own way and half of his besides.
This time out, one man in one small country has options few emperors have ever enjoyed. He can knock some dominoes down and see what comes of it. Mister Olmert can instantly embroil America, China, Japan, Europe, India and just about everybody else out there in a fight to the death over energy. He can screw the pooch. Will he?
Hezbollah
is southern Lebanon, right down to curbside garbage collection, toys for tots, and civil defense. Hezbollah has proven for decades that they can withstand and wait out whatever the Israelis send their way. It's a classic guerilla setup -- the Israelis have to win, while Hezbollah merely needs to not lose.
Olmert is in a closed box as long as he's in Lebanon, and the longer he's in there the more Israel loses, on the ground and internationally. He can occupy all of Lebanon and still be nowhere.
Israel is merely back at that old guerilla game of looking for enemies hiding in plain sight. And yet, unpleasant as it is all around, the situation still has brakes, if only because pushing a boulder uphill means it isn't likely to run away on you. If Israel stays in Lebanon until 2525, the headlines won't vary much throughout that time.
But -- if Olmert hits Syria, for its support of Lebanon, Iran will be in the open as the last bulwark and champion of the Muslim world. Iran is allied with Syria, and bound to come to Syria's defense, just as surely as we are bound to defend Israel.
This is how world wars start.
So, Mister Olmert has the entire option, the entire choice of taking America into a war that has a strong chance of going nuclear. It's his choice. Our Congress and our President will not make the choice, Mister Olmert will.
All he has to do is bomb Syria, and the US will be in there on Israel's side, while Iran will be busy shutting down the Middle East as a reliable or affordable petroleum source.
Neither Europe, China, Japan nor India will have the option of staying out of it even overnight, not if they want to some semblance of their economies functioning on the following Monday morning.
Russia can coast a little bit, but certainly will not come in on America's side. They do not see the Middle East or Caspian Basin as our 51st State.
So -- here be the shit, and there be the fan. If Mister Olmert screws the pooch, it won't be possible to unscrew it, boys.
Just raise the black flag, and the devil take the hindmost.