Israel's attacks on Lebanon are obviously a humanitarian disaster. But I think they are also a foreign policy disaster of the first order, perhaps of a magnitude even greater than the Iraq War. Lebanon, you see, is an American ally. From that fact will come many ominous implications . . .
Other American allies in the Middle East, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait, and Qatar, surely must see that when it comes to a conflict between Israel's desires and Lebanon's desires, this country stands with Israel. Therefore those nations will, reasonably enough, conclude that their alliance with the United States is conditional and totally dependent on maintaining a disagreement-free relationship with Israel. And how will the Arab "people on the street" in those allied contries of Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar view the United States and a government that cooperates with it? I think these attacks will radicalize the populations in those countries, too, putting at risk friendly governments and increasing the possibility that our interests in the region will be further destabilized. And, by the way, I wouldn't be surprised to hear of Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda issuing a new communique, emphasizing yet again and this time with the Lebanese evidence, the need to return the Middle East to a unified caliphate to oppose Israel and its American handmaiden.
Moreover, our nation's failure to assert its diplomatic or military strength in an effort to put an end to the carnage in Beirut and elsewhere is a clear signal that we are overstretched. Too many troops are tied down in Iraq and we simply lack the political, financial, and military will to project power where necessary. So, just in case the Iranian reluctance to cooperate with international demands for restraints on its nuclear program or the North Korean missile launches don't make it clear, the Hezbollah aggressiveness in taking two Israeli soldiers hostage in Israel tells the whole world that our enemies think we are weak.
But I think the worst damage that our encouragement of the Israeli overreaction will do is the destruction of any perception in the Middle East that this country really does care about democracy, human rights, and international law. There is no way that Israel's bombing campaign in Lebanon is an appropriate response to the Hezbollah crime of abducting two soldiers. Innocents, hundreds of them so far, have been killed; indeed, the vast majority of casualties are civilians. Few of those civilians have any link to Hezbollah's military operations. And Lebanon itself is governed by a moderate, democratic, multiparty government - a true success story for the kind of reform this administration claims to want for the region.
But how long can that government survive when it is powerless not only to stop the Israeli attacks but even to obtain American diplomatic efforts to convince Israel to ratchet things down? The Lebanese people will ultimately be radicalized against Israel and against the United States as a result of this tragedy. That means that Hezbollah's political strength may increase, not decrease, and that Lebanon itself may feel compelled to strengthen, not reduce or eliminate, ties to Syria and Iran.
And Iran . . . a nation that wants to be a regional power in the Persian Gulf region is now further strengthened as other nations in the Middle East see that perhaps they would be better served by having a strong strategic counterweight to Israel. Furthermore, Iran's desire to build a nuclear arsenal will be enhanced, politically, as its leaders can point to Israel's action in Lebanon as justification for a stronger "self-defense" system.
Then we have the damage likely to be done to our relationship with European allies. Those nations, already frustrated with America's unilateralism in Iraq, will no doubt see our passive response to Israel's military overreaction as further evidence that the United States has turned its back on international law, institutions, and opinion. In response they may further integrate the European Community into a cohesive military alliance, increase efforts to replace the dollar as the world's benchmark currency with the Euro, and distance themselves from American policy preferences with respect to Russia.
Then there's the Turkey problem. The Turks are restive about increasing clamor for independence by the Kurds in northern Iraq. They have already threatened to take military action to prevent any moves toward independence. Now the Turkish government, already under siege by Islamic militants, will see even less reason to fear an American response.
Finally, there is Iraq itself. Does anyone here doubt that the insurgency will be strengthened by this? Al-Sadr's brigades will seek further public sympathy on grounds that Shiite brothers and sisters are being killed with American weapons in Lebanon. The Sunnis, desperate for protection, will begin to doubt even more that America can or will protect them from a Shiite-dominated government.
I am angry about the attacks in Lebanon and the attacks on Israel. Toddlers - infants, even - are being burned alive. Our government dithers, enables this needless war, and refuses to recognize that our own strategic interests are being harmed with every bomb that falls on Beirut. This episode confirms, beyond any question, that George W. Bush is a President either completely out of touch with America's real-world strategic interests or totally incompetent in the execution of foreign policy. In either case, I cry not only for the innocents, both in Israel and Lebanon, that are dying, but also for the further loss of our own innocence.