Until a week or so ago, I thought that the GOP would hold on to the Congress because even though I believed we would do well in the Northeast and West, we were underperforming in the Midwest. My perception of that changed completely this week. That is no longer the situation. Out in the heartland, its becoming an absolute massacre for the GOP-there simply is no good news to be found for them anymore. The data points here support no other logical conclusion. I'm not so sure where the bottom dropped out for them, but $3 gas has strained an already bad local economy in some of these places. There are big time corruption and scandal problems in Ohio and Kentucky aiding us, and Matt Blunt seems like he's heading that way in Missouri. Add to that the GOP's national woes, and is no longer merely a situation where the wind is at our backs-its a full scale blowout.
US Senate Races
Bob Casey is beating Santorum by 15 points. The only remaining question there is how big his coattails are. In the Buckeye State, Sherrod Brown looks like he's finally pulling ahead in Ohio. More importantly, in the last few days, I've sensed a momentum change in this race. DeWine is getting blasted for his tastefully low 9/11 ads, and the Brown campaign has apparently mastered one of the most important things in campaigning-"speed kills". They aren't taking any crap from anyone. In Minnesota, Amy Klobuchar is whaling the tar out of Mark Kennedy (their most highly touted GOP senate challenger this cycle) with the highly regarded Minnesota Poll showing her a whopping 19 points ahead. Claire McCaskill is holding her own in Missouri, which always has nailbiters.
One imporatnt thing to keep in mind on the Senate side is the unexpected windfall we should have. Not only is Chuck Schumer and the DSCC outraising Liddy Dole by big margins, but you have to keep in mind what I'll dub "the Pennsylvania effect". The "Pennsylvania Effect" arises out of the fact that at the beginning of this cycle, everyone (including the DSCC) assumed that to be win against Santorum, we'd have to spend $20-$25 million. But Santorum has proved to be very weak and unpopular. Casey should be able to finish him off on $6-9 million, which means that I'm guessing we have a windfall of something like $8-$15 million; life is gonna be very difficult for GOP Senate candidates this fall.
US House
On the House end, many believe that Bruce Braley has the best shot at picking up a seat for Democrats in the entire country. He'll be getting a lot of help from John Edwards, who is very popular in the Hawkeye State.
Further east, in Illinois, Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth is running dead even against highly touted State Senator Peter Roskam in the heavily Republican suburbs of Chicagoland. Melissa Bean appears to be headed to re-election in the Illinois 8th.
In deep red Indiana, we are on the brink of sending a Democratic delegation to Washington for the first time in decades. Chris Chocola is losing by 5 to Democrat Joe Donnelly in the Indiana 2nd. Baron Hill is set to retake the Indiana 9th, with a poll showing him ahead by 10. Finally, the "bloody" Indiana 8th appears to be within our grasp; Brad Ellsworth is an exceptional candidate and John Hostettler is an exceptional moron (who votes against Katrina relief in a year where Republicans are going to get blasted?).
Ken Lucas is on track to take back the staggeringly Republican Kentucky 4th from GOP clown Geoff Davis in the Cincinnati burbs. I wouldn't be at all surprised if John Cranley was winning across the River in the much more Democratic Ohio's 1st.Mary Jo Kilroy is breathing down Deborah Pryce's neck (ie within 3 points) in Columbus, Ohio's 15th District. Bob Ney has got to be falling down on his knees every night praying he won't be indicted; for him it probably doesn't matter much because Zack Space is running ahead of him.
In the Minnesota 6th, the GOP is paying the price for nominating whackjob Michele Bachman; the DCCC will be dropping $400k for Patty Wetterling this cycle. In the only poll I've seen in the 6th, Wetterling leads Bachmann by 5 points. I also would guess that Tim Walz is at the very least running close to even with Gil Gutknecht. In Wisconsin's 8th, Packer Backers are backing Democrat Nancy Nusbaum by 5 points over Republican State Rep. John Gard.
Governorships in this region, once seemingly the only silver lining for the GOP, have turned in our favor; beleagured incumbent Governors like Jim Doyle of Wisconsin are in the lead, and Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania is beginning to pull away. Even scandal plagued Blago is winning in Illinois. Ken Blackwell is losing by 20 points to Ted Strickland in Ohio, and once seemingly invincible Tim Pawlenty is on the ropes against Mike Hatch in Minnesota.
For them, its bad all over. If its this grim for them in the Midwest, then the Northeast has to be an absolute catastrophe for them. For us, its nothing but good news.