Forgive the pessimistic title. The Cook Report has ranked Sen Maria Cantwell (D-WA) as one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent. This diary will take a look at why.
Make no mistake about it, the voters are angry with the direction of the country. And nowhere is that more apparent that in Eastern Washington where Sen. Cantwell is running for re-election against Mike McGavick. That anger is being channeled quite well and will ensure a victory . . . for Mike McGavick.
Kos and others around Left Blogistan have been pointing out that a number of Dems are running their typical whishy-washy campaign instead of voicing the voters' anger, about Iraq, deficit, and what Digby calls the squeeze on middle income families. Smart GOP candidates are using this opportunity to run on familiar ground: anti-government. The Stranger, the best alt-weekly in the country IMHO, has a great article on how McGavick is running as a Republican who's against the (GOP) status quo. Read on as it really is a remarkable feat . . .
First a little background for those of you not familiar with Washington state electorate. It is not a safely blue as you might imagine. It gets distorted by the People's Republic of Seattle and other areas around Puget Sound. For Dems to win state-wide races in Washington they need voter-rich Seattle to turn out. An example of this is the Governor's race in 2004. It was a squeaker a win by the Dem candidate of 132 votes. Kerry, on the other hand won Washington state handily. Here was
the difference:
Seattle's satisfaction should be paramount to Cantwell. Gregoire famously took the liberal wing of her party--Seattle--for granted (75,135 people in King County who voted for John Kerry did not vote for Gregoire), and was nearly embarrassed by a slick, soft-focus businessman.
All of you are saying at this point that she might not be the greatest candidate, but surely Eastern Washington is just as sick of the current government as everyone else is. And you'd be right. The bad news is how McGavick is taking advantage of two issues that should damn the GOP this fall: Iraq and Katrina.
McGavick, whose lilting, high-pitched voice sounds like Mike Tyson imitating a Texan, kicks off his stump speech by singling out the government response to Katrina as the "moment that crystallized" his decision to run. "On [TV] you would see someone standing on their rooftop waving to be rescued," he begins. "Yet what did you see in the corner of the screen? Some politician, Republican or Democrat, blaming somebody else, trying to gain partisan advantage of this crisis. If we want change we have to have some new people back there."
In a similar feat of political alchemy, McGavick addresses public disappointment over Bush's handling of the war with another all-purpose, antigovernment attack. McGavick speaks to public frustration by saying mistakes were made. But he inoculates his party by saying it's not kosher for Congress to debate Iraq now. "We have learned things--since being there--that turned out not to be true," McGavick admits after a lone Democratic community-college student sitting in back brings up the war. "But it's inappropriate to have those debates until our troops are out of harm's way. I would not take up the Congress's time right now debating those things. I can learn about them later."
In other words he's running an outsider vs. insider campaign and it is working. Cantwell's lead has slipped from 55-25 in Feb to 47-33 this month. Cantwell is giving McGavick the angry vote. And here is another lesson for Democratic candidates just because you support the war don't think that will help you one bit:
Rich Childress, owner of Moses Lake's C&V auto dealership, loves McGavick's message. "Keep your mouth shut if you want to debate the war," he says. "Don't go on TV with the word[s] 'U.S. Senator' on your chest and badmouth the war." When I remind Childress that Cantwell voted for the war and stands by her vote, he smiles. "Yeah, that's true."
The specifics about Cantwell don't match McGavick's campaign. Cantwell isn't a war critic. And she's not hotly partisan. She famously teamed up with the GOP to pass bipartisan campaign finance reform; she reached across the aisle to pass the sales tax deduction; she didn't join the Democrats' gimmicky Alito filibuster; she voted for the PATRIOT Act. She's under fire from liberals for being conservative.
Cantwell is dangerously close to losing. First not many voters in her base of Seattle are all that excited about voting for her. Yeah we might, you know, if it's a slow day and we happen to be passing the polling place on election day. She needs just one vote-driving red-meat liberal position. Universal Health Care, keeping the estate tax, repealing bankruptcy reform. C'mon Maria give us something, fer christsakes!
Second, she is losing the angry vote east of the Cascades. As the Stranger put it:
McGavick is running against D.C., not against Cantwell. If McGavick can continue to do an end run around Cantwell with his broad critique of D.C.--he could win. And Cantwell is letting this happen. She needs to make McGavick run against her--and things like her VA funding vote-- if she wants to short-circuit McGavick's charming attempt to co-opt public anger to his advantage.
Take heed Democratic incumbents and beware. Don't be afraid to get angry. Not 24/7 mind you, but pick just a few things to really let lose on. It's not like there's nothing to chose from: cutting veteran's funding, war profiteering in Iraq as the GOP turns a blind eye, tax cuts for Paris Hilton, the time-wasting GOP Congress with nonsense like Schiavo and flag burning. It is a target-rich environment, Dems, use it to your advantage.