Connecticut likely Democratic primary voters back challenger Ned Lamont 51 - 45 percent lead over incumbent Sen. Joseph Lieberman in the U.S. Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 54 - 41 percent Lamont lead among likely Democratic primary voters in an August 3 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
In this latest survey, 4 percent of likely Democratic primary voters remain undecided, but 90 percent of voters who name a candidate say their mind is made up.
Among Lamont supporters, 54 percent say their vote is mainly against Lieberman. Lieberman's support for the war in Iraq is the main reason they are voting for Lamont, 36 percent of Lamont voters say, while 54 percent say it is one of several reasons.
This remains a solid lead for Lamont, but there are several factors with summer polling:
- Likely voter models are tough to put together
- CT Democratic primaries historically skew liberal
- Intensity is unmeasured, as is GOTV
- Lamont's favorable/unfavorable: the unfavorable remain relatively low at 42-18%, so negative ads haven't worked
- Lieberman's have slightly improved at 40-34%, but he's the incumbent and is below 50%
- How much does Lieberman's support of the war in Iraq influence your decision to vote for Lamont - Is it the main reason you are voting for Lamont, is it only one of the reasons, or is it not a reason at all?
LIKELY DEM PRIME VOTERS
Main reason 36%
Only one reason 54
Not a reason at all 9
- The above means for 90% of voters the war matters (the national press conclusion), but that other factors matter for more than half the voters (the local conclusion, generally ignored by the national press).
In the Democratic primary for Governor, likely voters back New Haven Mayor John DeStefano
48 - 41 percent over Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy, with 10 percent undecided. This compares to a 48 - 38 percent DeStefano lead August 3.
In this latest survey, 28 percent of likely Democratic primary voters who choose a candidate say they still might change their mind.
From July 31 - August 6, Quinnipiac University surveyed 784 Connecticut likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.
No self-congratulations today. Support your candidate, and do the work first. We'll talk tomorrow night.