The
Q-Poll has trends and therefore is the one to watch.
No poll predicts turnout.
Connecticut likely Democratic primary voters back challenger Ned Lamont 51 - 45 percent lead over incumbent Sen. Joseph Lieberman in the U.S. Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 54 - 41 percent Lamont lead among likely Democratic primary voters in an August 3 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
In this latest survey, 4 percent of likely Democratic primary voters remain undecided, but 90 percent of voters who name a candidate say their mind is made up.
Among Lamont supporters, 54 percent say their vote is mainly against Lieberman. Lieberman's support for the war in Iraq is the main reason they are voting for Lamont, 36 percent of Lamont voters say, while 54 percent say it is one of several reasons.
This remains a solid lead for Lamont, but there are several factors with summer polling:
- Likely voter models are tough to put together
- CT Democratic primaries historically skew liberal
- Intensity is unmeasured, as is GOTV
Observations:
For Governor:
In the Democratic primary for Governor, likely voters back New Haven Mayor John DeStefano
48 - 41 percent over Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy, with 10 percent undecided. This compares to a 48 - 38 percent DeStefano lead August 3.
In this latest survey, 28 percent of likely Democratic primary voters who choose a candidate say they still might change their mind.
From July 31 - August 6, Quinnipiac University surveyed 784 Connecticut likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.
No self-congratulations today. Support your candidate, and do the work first. We'll talk tomorrow night.