Kos wonders whether the Wyoming at-large seat should be included in the possible pick-up category in
his thread on Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball. I posted this comment late there so decided to share it.
I've been in Wyoming for about 30 years and I've never seen the political climate quite so favorable for Dems. The environmental issue -- will national Dems ever really discover the environment as an issue? -- is creating some very strange tensions. Both ranchers and sportsman suddenly see the energy boom threatening their lifestyles. The "Sagebrush Rebellion" is so far over that the phrase is no longer uttered. Deeply held Wyoming cultural values are being threatened and everyone seems to feel it. People aren't happy here.
Follow me over for more.
Gary Trauner is an exceptional candidate. The hits against him -- he's rich, he wasn't born here, he's from Jackson -- were all thrown out by Cubin in '04 against her then challenger. They've become worn out rhetoric (although the Jackson link still hurts but rich and Jackson go together, so....) And Cubin continues to have nothing to show for her 12 years of service. I have said it before and will say it again, Cubin would not have been elected had she run in any year but '94. She won the wide open primary with a small minority of the vote and Republicans cringed because they believed she would lose statewide to a very good Dem challenger. (Ironically, in 1994, the Dems offered up one of their best slates of candidates in years only to see them all get swept away, pretty much destroying the talent pool of the Dems.)
If you haven't been to the Trauner website, go! Gary Trauner looks, acts, and talks Wyoming. Today in Wyoming, that rather than empty rhetoric is what counts. Freudenthal showed how to get elected as a Dem and Trauner is following the model. And, of course, Freudenthal is also up for re-election -- which seems to be taken for granted although I'm a bit nervous after so many disappointments over so many years. His opponent seems to want to make the campaign about meth which, I don't know, maybe I'm an incredibly uncharacteristic Wyomingite, but meth really doesn't affect my life that much.
I think Trauner should definitely be on the bubble between, with a big wave, he's there and possible pick-up. Certainly no one should be completely shocked if Trauner wins come election night. Remember, too, that our primaries haven't happened yet so the real campaign season hasn't started. (And no polls since that early one showing Cubin by only a couple points.)
Finally, I can tell you this for sure. Wyoming is one of the cheapest states you'll find and every dollar invested in Gary Trauner will go much, much further than a dollar invested many other places. (And think of the wonder of defeating a Cheney loyalist in his own backyard!) So, if you can only afford that $5-$10, please consider giving it to Gary Trauner. He needs it and deserves it and has done a very good job with fundraising so far. (Beat Cubin in the 2nd quarter.)
BTW, both Cheney and Howard Dean have been in Jackson this week, quietly raising money.