From the very first comment in
McJoan's front page diary:
orchulli would hurt lieberman, which may help lamont as lieberman wouldnt pull as many R votes. but could also hurt lamont that now that R is credible, he could be a threat to win with Lamont and Lieberman splitting a lot of dems. hard to tell.
Funny, I've been thinking about this a lot lately. Now that Lamont has won the primary, under which scenario can the Republicans claim anything more than a moral victory in the CT-Sen general? Let's look at the possible outcomes, shall we?
- Lamont wins outright - good for Dems, obviously.
- Lieberman runs as an independent, wins and caucuses with the Dems - not the most preferential arrangement, but it would work.
- Lieberman runs as an independent, wins and caucuses with the Repubs - well, in essence you've outed a "wolf in sheep's clothing".
- Schlesinger drops out, a respected Republican jumps in and eeks out a win against Lamont/Lieberman - this is our worst nightmare here.
Scenario 1 is looking pretty good right now. The anti-Lieberman effect should kick in over the coming weeks amongst Dems in Connecticut as more and more of the national Democratic leadership backs Lamont. And if
Zogby's recent polling is correct, the Dems of that state, who pushed Lieberman to 48% in the primary, should be looking to back Lamont overwhelmingly in the general. Quote from the Zogby link above:
Democrats nationwide said they were unhappy with Lieberman's decision to run for his seat as an independent in the November general election, as 71% said they were displeased with the move. Another 24% said they approved of his decision to seek a fourth-term in Washington. Among progressives, 85% disapproved of the Lieberman independent effort to keep his job. Even among self-described moderate Democrats, 66% were opposed with the new Lieberman candidacy.
Obviously, this is a nationwide poll - I doubt the numbers would be quite as bad currently for Lieberman in Connecticut. However, common sense dictates that Lieberman's support is likely to erode over time - it wasn't that long ago he was up 50 points. The trends are certainly not in his favor.
There's an outside shot at scenario 2, if and only if Schlesinger stays in the race. Lieberman isn't getting enough of the Republican vote to win the general IF a solid Republican candidate shows up on the ballot to beat Lamont.
Ditto for scenario 3, only the post-election would be different. Lieberman would get ripped apart from both sides (too liberal for the Repubs and a traitor to the Dems), which would make for an entertaining spectacle and an ugly finale to his political career.
I don't see how scenario 4 comes to fruition, considering the makeup of the state we are talking about. A solid Republican candidate is probably going to siphon off enough votes from Lieberman to bump his own numbers, but not enough to catch Lamont.
Let's face it - unless the Lamont campaign implodes (not likely considering the group that's currently running his campaign), he's going to continue to gain in the polls as Lieberman fails to receive endorsements from anyone other than Hannity, Coulter, Limbaugh etc.
The Republicans are trying to figure out how to steal this seat - regardless of the plaudits they are throwing Lieberman's way, they can't seriously believe he's going to suddenly "go Republican". The only chance, in my opinion, is to go with a new candidate to replace Schlesinger, and hope the Dems split their vote between Lieberman/Lamont.
I honestly believe the primary was the mountain. The general won't be easy, but there is close to a zero percent chance the seat will go Republican.