With the challengers for the 2006 Senate contests nearly all set, I thought it to be time to look forward to 2008 and to ponder who'll retire, who might be vulnerable and who could be seen as possible "major challengers".
Below, I'll give an analyzis of the various satets which may be in play or possible retirements.
ALABAMA: Jeff Sessions (R-AL) is safe as can be. Does it really matter whom the Democrats field?
ALASKA: Ted Stevens (R-AK) may finally retire. If that's the case look for a free for all on the GOP side. On the democratic side the bench is pretty empty as the one viable candidate - Tony Knowles - will either be governor or politically dead after two consecutive defeats (Senate 2004 and Governor in 2006).
ARKANSAS: Mark Pryor (D-AR) will be running for a second term. Given that he stems from a notable political family (his father was both governor and senator), that he himself is a known quantity having won election as state attorney-general and senator in his own right and that he has done nothing to alienate his constituents, Pryor will easily win a second term. The GOP will most likely look for someone to run but lose with honour (that is within ten points of Pryor)
COLORADO: Whether Wayne Allard (R-CO) retires or not, this is going to be one of the marquee races of 2008. Allard already has a democratic challenger in popular Rep. Mark Udall. The democratic establishment will unite around Udall, who'll face only token opposition in the democratic primary. If Allard decides to call it a day, look for a free for all on the GOP side. This seat will be a prime democratic target in 2008.
DELAWARE: Joe Biden (D-DE) might run for president. If he does, he'll have retire from the Senate when he gets the nomination. As the primary filing deadline in Delaware is usually at the end of July, a failed presidential bid would not mean that Biden could not run again. If he does retire, look for former governor and current Rep. Mike Castle to be the GOP nominee and a free for all on the Democratic side.
GEORGIA In 2002 Saxby Chambliss insinuated that the then democratic incumbent Cleland was unpatriotic. Chambliss won but we democrats have never forgiven him for tainting someone who lost THREE limbs in Vietnam. We all would love to take out Chambliss... Alas... Georgia is trending ever more to the GOP side so the question is who would be able to defeat Chambliss? Methinks there will be a Democratic sacrificial lamb.
IDAHO: Larry Craig (R-ID) is safe as can be. Does it really matter whom the democrats field?
ILLINOIS Dick Durbin (R-IL) is safe as can be. Does it really matter whom the GOP field?
IOWA If Tom Harkin (D-IA) runs for an other term, although he will draw a credible challenger, it'll be his. If Harkin decides this seat becomes a real tossup.
KANSAS: Pat Roberts (R-KS) will be running for re-election. As this is Kansas the Democrats could figuratively speaking as well not bother to field a candidate.
KENTUCKY McConnell (R-KY) will sail to an other term, regardless of whom the democrats nominate.
LOUISIANA Mary Landrieu (R-LA) barely scraped through in 2002. This will be a tough seat to hold as Landrieu's popularity has declined since the Katrina debacle and because the state clearly trends GOP and because it's a presidential year. Question will be whether the GOP trend continues or whether the Democratic turnout machine in New Orleans will win the day.
MAINE: Susan Collins (R-ME) said in 1996 that she would not run for a third term. A promise she's likely to break in 2008. The question is which democrat is powerful enough to contest this seat when Collins runs... probably nobody. IF she decides to retire, this race would immediately be thrust into the toss-up column, and would give Democrats high hopes of a pickup in the Pine Tree State. In that case look for Rep. Tom Allen to be the democratic nominee and a pretty thin GOP bench, if Collins runs, look for a sacrificial lamb.
MASSACHUSSETTS: John Kerry (D-MA) wants a presidential encore. He'll most likely not get it and will see that pretty soon in the presidential primaries. With a primary filing deadline in June, Kerry would then have ample time of filing for reelection. If Kerry does retire look for a free for all in Massachusetts's Democratic congressional delegation. My best bet however is that Kerry runs. It really doesn't matter who the GOP nominates in this state.
MICHIGAN Incumbent Democrat Carl Levin (D-MI) may retire. In that case look for an other marquee race with a free for all on both sides. Given the state of Michigan's political climate (lightly democratic), this seat may go according to the political winds of the day (look for this seat to probably go the way of the state's electoral college vote). If Levin decides on running for an other term, it'll easily be his.
MINNESOTA: Norm Coleman (R-MN) became senator after Wellstone crash by defeating former Veep Mondale. Al Franken has currently announced his intention to run against Coleman but he probably doesn't have a realistic chance. Could one of the late Wellstone's children be enticed into the race this might become close. Coleman however as the incumbent keeps a clear advantage.
MISSISSIPPI: There are some rumours that long term senator Thad Cochrane (R-MS) might retire. If he does retire look for popular former state attorney-general Mike Moore to jump in the race. Moore probably is the only democrat who could make this a race and he might face Rep. Pickering as the GOP nominee. This would be an other tossup race with, given the GOP leanings of the state, and edge for the GOP. However, it would be the first real race for a federal state wise office in twenty year. If Cochrane does run for a sixth term, he'll only face token opposition.
MONTANA Max Baucus will draw a credible opponent, nonetheless he'll win with ease. Certainly with the current democratic breeze going through the state. Also, popular governor Schweitzer will also be on the ticket, which'll only help Baucus even more.
NEBRASKA: Chuck Hagel (R-NE) wants to run for president. With a filing deadline for incumbents in February, a presidential run would prohibit Hagel running for re-election. If he does retire look for Johanns or Osborne to run for this seat. The democratic bench is pretty thin in this state so regardless whether Hagel runs or not, it'll be a sacrificial lamb.
NEW HAMPSHIRE first term senator Sununu (R-NH) will be running for re-election. He might be safe unless Shaheen wants a rematch (advantage still for Sununu); if extremely popular Gov Lynch decides to challenge Sununu, this immediately becomes a tossup.
NEW JERSEY: Frank Lautenberg once retired from the Senate only to make a comeback after the "Torch" fizzled out... In 2008 Lautenberg will be 84, nonetheless in February 2006, Lautenberg announced that he intends to run for reelection in 2008... Good idea? Personally I don't think it to be a good idea given his age and his rather mediocre approval ratings. Age could indeed be a factor. The question remains who will the GOP nominate? A rabiate conservative or a moderate? If it's a fire breathing conservative this race won't be close, a moderate could give Lautenberg a run for his money. If Lautenberg should die before 2008 (I sure hope not but it isn't unlikely given his age) or retire look for a congress critter to run: either the appointed one or a free for all, anyway, the usual suspects (look at the Menendez appointment candidacies) would rear their head.
NEW MEXICO: As the 74 year old incumbent, Pete Domenici (R-NM), has not been raising much money recently, a retirement is a distinct possibility. Given the state's recent Democratic trend but not forgetting that it went to Bush in 2004, this would be a real tossup. And possibly a wild free for all on both sides (Madrid? Pearce, Tom Udall? Wilson?)
NORTH CAROLINA: There are some rumours that Dole (R-NC) may retire from politics or retire to run for governor. Personally, I don't believe these rumours. Liz Dole will run for a second term. Not being a very effective senator, I do think she might be vulnerable to a challenge by Gov. Easley. If she does decides to retire, the field is wide open on the GOP side, on the Dem side it'll be wide open as well unless a powerhouse decides to run. Anyway, I predict an open primary race like in 2004 when Edwards retired.
OKLAHOMA: Inhofe (R-OK) will be running for re-election. As this is Oklahoma the Democrats could figuratively speaking as well not bother to field a candidate for this office.
OREGON: Gordon Smith (R-OR) will be running for re-election, given the political leanings of this state, Smith ought to be a prime target. Smith, however, is well liked in the state and has a good working relation with his democratic colleague Wyden. Smith therefore will win relatively easy in November 2008.
RHODE ISLAND: Jack Reed (R-RI) will be running for re-election. As this is Rhode Island the GOP could figuratively speaking as well not bother to field a candidate for this office.
SOUTH CAROLINA: Lindsey Graham (R-SC) will be running for a second term and he'll very easily get it.
SOUTH DAKOTA: This could turn out to be an other nail biter or the democrats if Gov. Rounds decides to challenge the incumbent Tim Johnson (D-SD). If Rounds takes a pass, Johnson is most likely "safe" but given South Dakota's clearly GOP advantage, safe is relative.
TENNESSEE former governor, former secretary of education and current first term Senator Lamar Alexander (R-TN) will be running for re-election. Although the Democrats will field a competitor, Alexander will relatively easy win a second term. No real contest here.
TEXAS: John Cornyn (R-TX) is not a very popular Senator. Alas, this is Texas where democrats currently have little hope of winning state wide offices. If there is any danger for Cornyn it'll come from within his own party but this is highly unlikely. Look for a democratic sacrificial lamb like this year's Barbara Radnofsky.
VIRGINIA: John Warner (R-VA) will likely retire. Whereas this state might be trending Democratic in the long term (due to the increasing influence of NoVA), on the short time methinks only the "other" Warner is able to grab this seat. Mark Warner will be running for the presidency though... Or could you envision a Kaine run? Probably not as Kaine will still have over a year to go in his one single term. Anyway, look for a wild primary race on both sides (state office holders or congresspersons,...) with no clear favourite to get the nomination, look however for the GOP nominee to win the seat.
WEST VIRGINIA: Rockefeller (D-WV) will be running for re-election. No prominent or half prominent GOPer in his right mind would dare challenge this long term incumbent with the extremely deep wallet. They all wait until either Rockefeller or Byrd's seat become open and then West Virginia's trend towards the GOP will cause a very competitive race. For now, this race is strongly Dem.
WYOMING: Mike Enzi (R-WY) will be running for re-election. As this is Wyoming the Democrats could figuratively speaking as well not bother to field a candidate for this office.
Well,, those are my ideas with regards to the 2008 Senate contest... Now discuss my crystal ball or give your own views as to who might be challenging, retiring or running in 2008?