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Look, I don't know why certain people are focusing on ten or twelve races for the House.  I don't see why they're focusing on 30.  I think we should be focusing on 435 races, because, this year in particular, I think we can do it.

Let's just look at one state.  Colorado.  I happen to know a bit about Colorado, having lived there for four years back in the eighties.  I can, for example, get from Aurora to Boulder without getting lost.

I also happen to know that, if we give a hoot, Colorado can go from pretty dang red to pretty dang blue this year.

Ready?  Jump!

Colorado has seven congressional districts.  Democrats are offering candidates for all seven seats.  We currently hold three seats (CO-1, CO-2 and CO-3).

CO-1 is Denver, and is as blue as any city that still has a lot of VW Bugs (the old ones) cruising up and down the main boulevards.  This town is 73% Democratic and Representative DeGette is as safe as any Dem is going to get.
CO-1 Safe Blue

CO-2 is Boulder and surrounding areas.  Boulder is only slightly more conservative than Berkeley, California, but the surrounding areas are live-free-or-die-gimme-my-guns mountain folks, so the area is only 67% Democratic, and Congressman Udall is safe.
CO-2 Safe Blue

CO-3's cities are Pueblo, Durango and Grand Junction, and is the Western third of the state.  This area has an awful lot of live-free-or-die-gimme-my-guns mountain folks.  The area is relatively poor (especially compared to CO-1 and CO-2) and Hispanic.  This area is John Salazar's district, and if that name sounds familiar, it's because his brother is Senator Salazar.  While the district is really a nice purple hue, John's farming and ranching background make him safe in this seat.
CO-3 Pretty Safe Blue

CO-4 is the Eastern portion of the state and is, in all honesty, a pretty dang red place to be.  But even CO-4 isn't red enough to make Marilyn Musgrave safe, and especially not against Angie Paccione.  Angie is the Chair of the State Majority Democratic Caucus, a Ph.D. former teacher and former pro-basketball player who grew up in the Bronx.  Surprise!  This lady wants to compete, this lady wants to win, and you know what?  She's kicking Musgrave's red little butt all over the map.  I think Angie's gonna take this one all the way, and she's been on my ActBlue page since the beginning.
CO-4: Blue if we help

CO-5: Colorado Springs, home of Focus on the Family and many fundamentalist organizations.  This district is as red as a bucket of red paint.  Or is it?  Representative Joel Heffley, who must've been in the House since they needed help putting up the walls, is retiring this year.  And in steps Fighting Dem, Jay Fawcett.  Do I hear the bleating of a sacrificial lamb?  Nosireebob.  Jay's a fighter and he's in it to win.  It's gonna take a lot of work and a near perfect storm, but he's got a chance.
CO-5: Blue with some Divine Intervention

CO-6:  Littleton, Castle Rock, Jefferson County.  I nevereverevereverever would have thought that this was going to be a race, but in steps Bill Winter to take on Tom Tancredo. Bill is absolutely and positively the right guy to run in CO-6.  He's a veteran twice over and coached football.  He's a man's man, and, for all that, as progressive as we could hope for.  
CO-6: Bill's gonna need a lot of help, but this one is ours if we fight for it

CO-7: Aurora, Lakewood and Arvada plus Adams County.  This is Ground Zero.  An evenly divided field and the incumbent, Beauprez, has left the field to run for governor.  In a normal year, I would say this is a red area.  Not this year.  If Ed Perlmutter runs this right, the race is his.
CO-7: Very likely Blue.

My bet is that we walk away with 3 more seats than we started with.

Originally posted to ultrageek on Thu Aug 17, 2006 at 03:01 PM PDT.


How many Colorado seats will be BLUE?

1%2 votes
9%12 votes
0%1 votes
21%27 votes
42%55 votes
16%21 votes
7%10 votes

| 128 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  SUSA poll out (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ohwilleke, Ambrosius, lalolola

    it shows Musgrave leading Paccione 46-42 in a district that gave Bush 57% of the vote. This is definitely a district that is trending Democratic. The rural plains/mountain counties that gave Bush 70% of the vote, are for the most part shriveling up, while the cities and suburban areas in the district, which are pretty pro-kerry, or at least full of moderate Republicans, are growing rapidly. Bush lost two percentage points of his 2000 margin in 2004, one of the few Republican districts in the country where that happened. It continues to trend Democratic. Paccione can also win over moderate to conservative Christions, because she is a born again Christian. Also, Musgrave gets like an 8 out of a 100 for her LCV environmental scorecard. not to mentions she's a passionate copnservative on both social and economic issues. She always does poorly with even moderate Republicans in her district, not to mention she gets little of the independant vote, and nearly none of the democratic vote. This is the year that we can this, and Paccione is the candidate to do so.

    Carpe Diem: Plus Coming soon New Louisiana

    by ArkDem14 on Thu Aug 17, 2006 at 03:08:00 PM PDT

    •  Pick a number: (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Colorado Luis

      polls, fundraising bucks, number of volunteers, how many house parties are scheduled, how many positive mentions in the press appear, or simple the speed of the wind at our backs.  Pick anything about Angie's campaign and compare it to Stan Matsunaka's number in 2002 or 2004.

      Stan is a great guy, and he wasn't that far from toppling Muskrat.  But Angie's going to win.

  •  CO-04 (7+ / 0-)

    I just want to point out that while CO-04 does include the sparsely populated counties in eastern Colorado, the population of the district is heavily concentrated in the cities of the northern I-25 corridor:  Longmont, Loveland, Greeley and Fort Collins.  So it is better to think of this district as centered in the northern Colorado mid-sized cities with a rural add-on than it is to think of it as a rural Eastern Colorado district.

    In fact, that is the very miscalculation the Republicans made when they decided to slot this seat for their single issue homophobe Representative.  Now she finds herself vulnerable in a rapidly urbanizing district that is turning into the next CO-07 in terms of competitiveness between the two major parties.

    •  From the way it was when I was there... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      we considered Longmont, Loveland, Greeley and Ft Collins more rural towns that urban centers.  But that was 20 years ago.  Have they changed?  

      -9.50;-6.62. But it don't mean nuttin if you don't put your money where your mouth is

      by ultrageek on Thu Aug 17, 2006 at 03:22:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Oh yeah. (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sardonyx, johne, Ambrosius, Cronesense

        Greeley is one of the fastest growing cities in the country.  Fort Collins is well over 100,000 people and still growing.  The northern I-25 corridor is the fastest growing part of the state, and unlike the Douglas County boom of the 1990s, it is not all upper income housing.

      •  They have grown up A LOT (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Colorado Luis, sardonyx, Cronesense

        Longmont now has 80,000 residents, Loveland 56,000, Greeley 83,000, and Ft. Collins 125,000.  Ft. Collins has been pursuing environmental regulations that put it on track to be more green than Boulder if it keeps up its effort.  These are certainly not just rural towns.  There is a certain element of the bedroom community, but these cities are moving up fast.

        "Dissent is the highest form of patriotism." Thomas Jefferson

        by Ambrosius on Thu Aug 17, 2006 at 03:34:08 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  They've turned into suburban sprawl hell (6+ / 0-)

        I lived in Colorado mostly from 1995 till 2006 (a little 8 month break in AZ in 1997).  The northern cities have all ballooned into sprawl and suburban hell.  I remember Ft. Collins having a weird fundamentalist streak from waiting tables at Perkins back in the mid 90s.  Wednesday nights sucked because church groups would come in, demand much of your time and energy, rug you ragged and leave little pamphlets saying "Want a tip? We're your salvation" (or something along those lines).  That was probably the beginning of my severe dislike for fundamentalists.  Ft. Collins was always pretty conservative, despite having a college there.  I sincerely hope folks in that district have finally realized Musgrave is nothing more than a hateful tiny person and will never properly represent the state.

        Having moved from Colorado to Seattle, I've become thoroughly thankful of being in a far more progressive area.  And much more pleasant summer weather.

    •  The Cook Report partisan voting index in CD-4 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Colorado Luis

      is only about 3 points more Republican than CD-3 which is currently held by Democrat John Salazar, and the PVI is probably less accurate in CD-4 than in CD-3, because CD-4 has been experiencing much more rapid bedroom community growth with demographics similar to Denver in just the last few years, while CD-3 has been comparatively stable.

      "Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities" -- Voltaire

      by ohwilleke on Thu Aug 17, 2006 at 05:55:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  By the way (0+ / 0-)

    I love your optimism.  I hope it spreads.

  •  we have our share (0+ / 0-)

    of rednecks, racists & religoids, but i think colorado is already blue. the trick is getting the voters to the polls. i'm glad to see that the SAFER COLORADO amendment will probably be on the ballot and maybe get  armchair progressives off their butts.

    "Might does not make right but it sure makes what is." -Edward Abbey

    by elkhunter on Thu Aug 17, 2006 at 04:46:46 PM PDT

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