So the local rag came around with some results from the 8 Aug primary, and I thought that I'd give a glance at it to see if I could figure out how many dems voted as a repug. (In MI you have cannot split your ballot between parties) On our ballot every dem was unopposed, while the republican ticket had two divisive contests (Knollenberg and Butler being the objectionable candidates).
These are the results from Royal Oak only: I'd include the results from Clawson too (the newspaper listed both) but the advantage in Royal Oak, is there is one race where the republican was also unopposed. That gives us a bit of a control.
The results are, I'm afraid, a bit depressing. Royal Oak had an average turnout (19%), and if this holds it's gonna be a nailbiter.
Data below:
US Senator
(R) Bouchard 3,477
(R) Butler 1,710
Total (R) 5,187
(D) Stabenow 2,680
Total 7,857
US Rep. 9th
(R) Godchaux 1,716
(R) Knollenberg 3,201
(D) Skinner 2,281
US Rep. 12th
(R) Shaffer 201 Total (R) 5,118
(D) Levin 259
Total 7,658
MI Sen 13th
(R) Pappageorge 2,980
(R) Taub 1,536
(R) Woolcock 460 Total (R) 4,976
(D) Levin 2,593
Total 7.569
County Commissioner 18th
(R) Konczal 3,567
(D) Donigan 2,609
Total 6,176
Recycling tax
Total 8,322
Public Transit Tax
Total 8,312
(I group US Rep 9 & 12 together since the precinct holds both)
Dem turnout was consistantly about 2600
Total votes were pretty stable at about 7600+ (except for Cty Comm 18th)
Rep votes were consistantly about 5000 (except for Cty Comm 18th)
Looks to me like about 1500 dems voted in the repub primary. I only voted for Bouchard and Godchaux. No reason to rubberstamp Konczal since I'm only voting repug to better the dem odds.
That total also brings up the dem/repub split to about 50-50.
One argument that can be made against this is I am basing my interpretation on a lower level race. True, though Donigan got solid dem support. Her opponent may just not have enough repub visibility -- I can't voice an opinion. Skinner, on the other hand has had basically no campaign, and she locked in the dem vote. Should be the same for the knee jerk repugs also.
Another argument could be that repubs were more motivated since they had more reason to vote. But I don't buy that for a 2-1 ratio. Plus we had two tax increase proposals (and everyone votes if their taxes are going up), and the totals there were close to the totals for both parties (the 700 (10%) or so deficit there I will easily assign to spoiled split ballots -- I processed the absentee ballots (about 3000 of these votes) and we tossed scads of votes for splitting parties: those split party ballots still counted the tax proposals)
So why my opinion on a nail biter? If there really were 1500 dems (like me) who crossed over, then Bouchard/Butler was way closer than I like.
And it means that there were only about 300 or so real Republicans who voted for Godchaux (the cursory glance I gave her literature would allow me to accept her -- Knollenberg linked her to a liberal org that looks to me pretty good, and then slimed her with a mailer that included a picture of Kim Jeong Il and Osama. Sheesh)
The good news is that Nancy Skinner is only just swinging into campaign mode, since she didn't need to hit the primary. But she pretty much has a solid dem vote (since about 6% of it is in Levin's dist.). So she's gonna need those 290 Republicans (1700 - 1500*.94). If she loses the Godchaux Republicans she's only up by 200/7200 = 2.6% Too close, and certainly way inside my margin of error. (crazy to do 2 sig digs here. But the other times I did it at difference resolutions I was getting 1% and 3.5%.)
I want Knollenberg chased home with his tail between his legs.
Cross your fingers. And Donate.
Nancy Skinner for Congress