, which included a table of price increases or decreases over 10 months for over 50 housing markets, using data obtained from the
web site. There is now year over year data for 40 housing markets, so I am updating my prior diary with year over year information.
For an explanation of the Housing Tracker data, including some cautions, see my prior diary.
The table below the fold lists housing markets by strength of year over year price increases, and categorizes markets by whether they are still booming, or having a soft, hard, or crash landing.
The definitions I am using in this diary are the same definitions I used in my original Housing diary:
For an explanation of why I am using these definitions, see my prior diary. The numbers posted below include the price increase/decrease I projected on June 14 as the year over year change, and now the actual year over year change. 6 of the booming markets, and 5 of the "soft landing" markets have continued to appreciate. ALL of the other markets, with one exception, have had price depreciation in the last 2 months. Some of this is seasonal in nature, but any decrease of more than 2% in the last 2 months is almost certainly more than seasonal.
Also, an explanation of a couple of symbols below: the number sign (#) is used to denote those markets where prices have actually increased in the last two months. The letter P is used to denote those markets where the prices of luxury homes were in decline two months ago, based on which I predicted a decline in median-priced homes. With the exception of the most booming markets, that prediction has generally borne out. The letter h is used to denote the highest price of the last 12 months where significant (note that frequently this did occur in June).
I reach some conclusions below. Without further adieu, here's the table:
Metropolitan area
dates inventory median$ Year-over-year price change
projected 6.04/ actual 8.04/ decline from high
Still Booming:
Salt Lake City, Utah
08/14/2006 2,425 $290,000 +71.6% #
06/14/2006 1,907 $284,500 +82.0%
08/14/2005 5,308 $169,000
Nashville, TN
08/14/2006 6,251 $209,900 +20.6% #
06/14/2006 5,769 $205,000 +21.4% P
06/01/2006 5,607 $205,000
08/14/2005 5,227 $174,000
Raleigh-Durham, NC
08/14/2006 8,733 $218,900 +20.5% #
06/14/2006 8,679 $210,000 +18.1%
08/14/2005 8,482 $182,425
Austin, Texas
08/14/2006 7,074 $224,975 +18.4% #
06/14/2006 7,301 $215,000 +15.8%
08/14/2005 10,041 $190,000
Albuquerque, NM
08/14/06 3,535 $270,000 +18.3% -3.2%
06/14/2006 2,698 $279,000 h +26.3%
08/14/2005 1,889 $228,900
Seattle, Washington
08/14/2006 4,642 $439,900 +14.6% #
06/14/2006 4,187 $439,500 +17.3%
08/14/2005 3,808 $384,000
Portland, Oregon
08/14/06 7,604 $365,000 +10.6% # -1.9%
06/14/2006 5,936 $364,900 +8.1% P
05/21/2006 5,199 $371,900 h
08/14/2005 4,241 $329,900
Baltimore, Maryland
08/14/06 8,733 $285,000 +10.0% -1.7%
06/14/2006 7,879 $289,900 h +14.3%
08/14/2005 4,337 $259,000
Memphis, Tennessee
08/14/2006 10,854 $167,900 +9.5%
06/14/2006 10,137 $168,900 +12.1%
08/14/2005 9,471 $153,400
Philadelphia, PA
08/14/2006 10,854 $189,900 +8.5% -5.0%
06/14/2006 11,777 $199,900 h +17.1%
08/14/2005 8,010 $175,000
New Orleans, LA
08/14/06 5,450 $220,000 +7.3% -11.6%
06/14/2006 4,853 $229,900 +14.2%
04/07/2006 3,786 $249,000
08/14/2005 3,250 $205,000
Soft landing:
Louisville, Kentucky
08/14/2006 8,071 $157,500 +6.8% #
06/14/2006 7,636 $154,900 +6.2%
08/14/2005 6,618 $147,500
Atlanta, Georgia
08/14/2006 45,034 $202,490 +6.6% #
06/14/2006 43,743 $200,000 +6.3%
08/14/2005 37,479 $189,900
Oklahoma City, OK
08/14/2006 7,818 $159,200 +6.2% -2.3%
06/14/2006 7,274 $159,900 +8.0% P
05/14/2006 6,672 $162,900
08/14/2005 5,756 $149,900
San Francisco, CA
08/14/2006 2,518 $739,000 +5.7% #
06/14/2006 2,321 $735,000 +6.2%
08/14/2005 1,632 $699,000
Cincinnati, Ohio
08/14/06 11,818 $161,900 +4.5% #
06/14/2006 11,145 $159,900 +3.9%
08/14/2005 9,353 $154,900
Denver, Colorado
08/14/2006 27,068 $228,000 +3.7% #
06/14/2006 25,908 $225,000 +2.8%
08/14/2005 21,477 $219,900
Indianapolis, Indiana
08/14/2006 15,927 $140,000 +3.7%
06/14/2006 15,373 $140,000 +4.4%
08/14/2005 13,743 $135,000
Chicago, Illinois
08/14/2006 36,865 $298,000 +2.8%
06/14/2006 34,822 $298,000 +3.4%
04/07/2006 30,654 $299,000 h
08/14/2005 29,010 $289,900
Tucson, Arizona
08/14/2006 9,052 $269,900 +2.6% -1.9%
06/14/2006 8,478 $275,000 h +5.5% P
08/14/2005 3,520 $263,000
Dallas, Texas
08/14/2006 24,431 $149,900 +1.8%
06/14/2006 23,475 $150,000 +2.3%
08/14/2005 22,229 $147,125
Kansas City, MO
08/14/2006 17,073 $177,900 +1.7% -1.1%
06/14/2006 16,630 $179,900 +3.4%
08/14/2005 13,663 $174,950
Houston, Texas
08/14/2006 29,754 $162,000 +1.3% -3.6%
06/14/2005 29,911 $165,000 +3.8%
05/14/2006 25,012 $168,090
08/14/2005 27,732 $159,900
Saint Louis, Missouri
08/14/2006 $179,900 +1.1% -3.5%
06/14/2006 10,303 $184,900 h +4.7% P
05/14/2006 9,871 $186,415
08/14/2005 8,261 $178,000
Riverside, California
08/14/2006 11,692 $475,000 0.0% -1.8%
06/21/2006 10,447 $483,500
06/14/2006 10,260 $482,000 +1.8% P
01/07/2006 5,750 $464,000
08/14/2005 4,158 $475,000
Detroit, Michigan
08/14/2006 30,499 $129,000 -0.7%
06/14/2006 28,403 $130,000 +0.0%
08/14/2005 23,709 $129,900
Omaha, Nebraska
08/14/2006 5,020 $183,168 -1.7%
06/14/2006 4,897 $184,950 -0.8%
08/14/2005 3,986 $186,268
Columbus, Ohio
08/14/2006 14,725 $162,000 -1.8%
06/14/2006 14,153 $164,900 +0.0%
08/14/2005 11,991 $164,900
Minn.-St. Paul, MN
08/14/2006 18,592 $249,900 -2.0%
06/14/2006 18,214 $254,900 +0.0%
08/14/2005 13,170 $254,900
Jacksonville, FL
08/14/2006 15,186 $303,400 -2.1% -6.1%
06/14/2006 13,427 $316,911 +2.7% P
05/01/2006 12,140 $322,990
08/14/2005 5,635 $310,000
Hard Landing:
Cleveland, Ohio
08/14/2006 15,429 $154,900 -3.1%
06/14/2006 14,505 $159,900 h +0.0% P
08/14/2005 11,936 $159,900
Las Vegas, Nevada
08/14/2006 22,974 $335,000 -4.0%
06/14/2006 21,883 $339,999 -3.1%
08/14/2005 16,119 $349,000
Sacramento, CA
08/14/2006 12,180 $382,900 -4.3% #
06/14/2006 10,743 $392,500 -2.2% P
05/14/2006 9,552 $395,000
01/07/2006 6,862 $385,000
08/14/2005 6,039 $399,900
Milwaukee, WI
08/14/2006 7,396 $199,900 -4.8%
06/14/2006 7,176 $200,000 -5.7%
08/14/2005 5,317 $209,900
Washington, D.C.
8/14/2006 11,950 $465,000 -4.9% -7.0%
06/14/2006 12,152 $479,900 -2.2%
12/21/2005 6,793 $450,000
09/14/2005 5,464 $499,900 h
08/14/2005 5,347 $489,000
Los Angeles, CA
08/14/2006 19,508 $610,000 -6.2%
06/14/2006 16,877 $625,000 -4.6%
01/01/2006 11,329 $599,900
08/14/2005 9,719 $649,999
Boston, MA
08/14/2006 6,781 $420,000 -6.5%
06/14/2006 7,579 $428,876 h -5.4%
08/14/2005 4,642 $449,000
San Diego, CA
08/14/06 15,402 $515,000 -5.5%
06/14/2006 14,386 $520,000 -5.5%
08/14/2005 9,656 $545,000
Miami, Florida
08/14/06 38,126 $384,888 -9.4%
06/14/2006 34,797 $390,000 -9.9% P
08/14/2005 12,361 $425,000
Crash:
Phoenix, Arizona
08/14/2006 27,328 $339,900 -10.5%
06/14/2006 25,165 $349,000 -9.8% P
08/14/2005 7,447 $379,900
The signs have only become more worrisome since. ALL of the previously hot markets are now either in a hard landing or crash. More markets look like they are deteriorating now. I see no reason to change my conclusion from two months ago, that housing will have a hard landing.