The latest
Quinnipiac Poll on the Connecticut senate race came out on August 17 giving Joe Lieberman a 49% to 38% lead over Ned Lamont. While Lamont increased his share of the vote 11 points since the
Q Poll immediately before the Democratic primary, Lieberman's numbers edged down only slightly, leaving him still close to 50%. There are many things that ought to concern the Lamont campaign - higher unfavorables than favorables, the share of Democrats that Lieberman continues to hold, and the perception of his level of experience. One little undiscovered secret is that Lamont polled nearly 15% or Republicans. If Lamont can win over 70% of Democrats and take 15% of disaffected Republicans he should also carry enough Independents to win the election.
I'll be honest. I thought that a progressive challenge to Lieberman this year was bad strategy. What do I think about that red-baiting, race-baiting, holier-than-thou Joe?? I think he's a camel's ass - and that's being generous. But even though Lieberman's position of the Iraq War is way out of sync with the Connecticut electorate's, it is not the only issue for voters in a state with deep Lieberman roots. This past January, a strong Republican challenger did not seem to be on the horizon. Had there been a viable Republican candidate, Lieberman wouldn't have been leading any polls following his primary defeat and, more than likely, could have been persuaded to abandon an independent bid. But to expect a lifelong politician to drop out when he's leading is absurd. Lamont's primary victory was astounding; however, the general election will be an entirely different ball game. The issues and arguments that worked among Democrats won't be enough to get Connecticut voters to elect Lamont in November.
There are two ways to win a three-way race. You can get 40% of the vote and have your opponents split the rest or you can get 50% of the vote and not worry about how the rest of the vote splits. The winner of the Connecticut senate race is going to be far closer to the latter since Schlesinger's campaign is dead in the water. And all the hoping by Lamont supporters that the Republicans will somehow replace Schlesinger is nothing more than wishful thinking.
Thus, for Lamont to win, he will need close to 50% of the vote - say 47%, maybe 48%. The question becomes, where will he find these votes? There are three sources of votes:
1. Democrats who supported Lieberman in the primary or who sat out the primary.
2. Independents who have been skeptical of Lamont up until now.
3. Weicker Republicans who are embittered by the Bush administration's foreign and domestic policies.
Still, the Quinnipiac Poll has some very sobering numbers for Lamont:
Favorable/Unfavorable Ratings - Lamont's favorables were 23%, but his unfavorables were 27%. Quinnipiac polls in June and July showed this same ratio. This has occurred as Connecticut voters have gotten to know Lamont. While only 25% of respondents knew enough about Lamont in June to respond, 50% did so in July, and nearly 70% in August. But the favorable/unfavorable ratio hasn't budged. What's more, Lamont has high favorables among Democrats, but a 4 to 3 unfavorable ratio among Independents, a group of voters key to his victory.
Mind Made Up - Roughly 75% of Lieberman's and Lamont's supporters say they won't change their position. This was the same figure as in the July Q Poll. Unfortunately these numbers aren't broken down by party affiliation. But if you look at the primary results and Lamont's support among Democrats in the most recent poll, you'll see Lieberman went from 48% to 35%. What that suggests is that wavering Lieberman supporters are found among Republicans and Independents, but that Lieberman's core Democratic support may well remain at 33%.
The Iraq War - Lamont already has the support of those who say the Iraq War is the most important issue. Although roughly 60% of voters in Connecticut believe the war was a mistake, about half do not rate it as the most important issue. Lamont's campaign must respond even though many of its core supporters are bitterly opposed to the Iraq War. Hard to do. One of the most informative congruences is between Independents who rate the war as the most important issue affecting their vote and Independents who support Lamont. 29% of Independents disagree with Lieberman's war position strongly enough to vote against him - Lamont's overall support among Independents is 34%. Lamont must expand his message.
Lamont's Experience - This one polls very poorly. 47% of the respondents believe that Lamont doesn't have the experience necessary to be a senator. Although the number of those who believe he has the proper experience increased since the July poll, so too did the number who believe he does not. Thus the negative ratio remained the same. The percentage among Independents is 47% as well. One of the most dangerous side effects of the national Democratic effort to get Lieberman to quit is the perception that Lamont can't win on his own. For Lamont to be credible, he has to say, "Bring him on!"
Sore Loserman - Everything in the most recent Quinnipiac poll suggests that the attempt to paint Lieberman as a sore loser has little to no traction. The group of responses "Not a Good Democrat", "Lost in the Primary", and "Running as Independent" garnered only a combined 11% response rate among Democrats and 6% among Republicans and Independents. And these numbers are from the 40% who responded that Lieberman should not be reelected. What that works out to is 1% of Republicans and 2% of Independents. This approach is a big zilch.
Unexpected Good News - Republicans!! Nearly 15% of Republicans indicated they supported Lamont. Clearly traditional New England Republicans are unhappy with the recent direction of their party and their country. Lowell Weicker has come out in support of Lamont. If Lamont can win 20% of the Republican vote Lieberman is in deep trouble.
Most Important Numbers - "Does Joe Lieberman deserve to be reelected?" The "Yes" has been edging downwards and the "No" has been edging upwards, but 51% still say "Yes". Broken down - 34% of Dems, 54% of Inds, and 75% of Repubs think Lieberman should be reelected. But if the Lamont campaign can get these down to 30%, 50%, and 70% respectively, and can get 70% of the Democratic vote, 45% of the Independents, and 15% of the Republicans, then Lamont wins with 47.9% overall to Lieberman's 46.7%. This is based on a 70% turnout among Dems and a 60% turnout among Repubs and Inds.
The Iraq War is important, but not nearly so much with the groups that are essential to a Lamont victory - wavering Lieberman supporters, moderate Independents, and Weicker Republicans. Job outsourcing, the national debt, corruption, Katrina should all be linked to the Iraq War as the number one example of failed policy, but the Iraq War should only be one piece of a broader front. The whole "Sore Loser" approach should be completely abandoned. If anything, it makes it look like Lamont can't win without outside "Big Guns" to help him. It doesn't matter that Lieberman also has Rovian guns, Lamont has the leadership hurdle to surmount. Lamont should ask Reid to stop talking about seniority for Lieberman since it is a moot point. Lamont will be Connecticut's next senator. If too many national Democrats weigh in and Reid strips Lieberman of seniority or committee positions, Lamont will lose key Independents. Finally, Lamont should really encourage the support of Weicker Republicans. Lieberman believes he has been given all Republican votes by Bush & Co. if not by God herself. This will really get his panties in a wad and force him to defend his base. It's delicious and nutritious, too.
Lamont can win, but the campaign must target his message to those voters who are going to be the difference. That message is different, not completely but significantly, than the one that won Lamont the primary. Lieberman will win if the Democrats react negatively to him because, fundamentally the message camera will remain focused on him. But if Ned Lamont says, "I beat him once, I'll just have to beat him again." he will emerge victorious.