I don't know wheather I should feel optemistic or pessemistic. Afterall, in 04, I was extremely optemistic.
My Senate predictions as of now, are moderately unconventional. For starters, I don't see Pennsylvania as a lock and reluctantly see Santorum getting a third term. Still, I predict a net gain of four or five seats, putting us in great position to take back the Senate in 08. Predictions below...
Guranteed Senate Pickups For Us (As of now, at least)
Montana
Jon Tester is our best candidate this cycle. Burns is the epitmoe of Beltway, Republican sleaze. How he went up in teh polls, however, after viciously insulting a group of hardowrking out of state firemen, is very troubling. Jon Tester is a perfect model for Democrats running in red states. If we want to take back middle America, the populist revolution we're seeing in Montana must filter into the rest of the country.
Rhode Island (In this scenario: Laffey gets the nod)
Obviously, nominating Stephen Laffey over a sane Republican like Lincoln Chafee would be tantammount to handing a Senate Seat to Sheldon Whitehouse. If Chafee gets the nod, it's a tough call. Anyone got some fresh polling for the primary?
Races I'm Calling Pickups Without Certainty
Missouri
I don't think Claire McCaskill is as strong as some indicate. Nevertheless, she'll win. What I like most about Claire is she is attacking Missouri's dark red rural counties outside the Dem strongholds of Kansas City and St. Louis.
Talent's approvals have been steadily improving since the race heated up but what has Talent really accomplished? Stem cell research is an issue McCaskill can use to her advantage she is a nice ideological fit for a swing state like Missouri. Talent still has a net disapproval in the Kansas City Area, where McCaskill is from. This will be a close one, and McCaskill needs high turnout from Kansas City in order to win.
Virginia
Other than Tester, Jim Webb is my favorite candidate this cycle. Allen is trash. Not only is he from a Washington Redskins family (Corboys fan here, sorry), he's racist and perhaps the Senate's shittiest Senator. Rasmussen gave Webb a huge "macaca bounce" and only have Webb down 47 to 42. That leaves 11% undecided, and with this year's anti-incumbent mood, I bet most of that swings over to Webb. Furthermore, Webb's the type of candidate with the ability to cyphon off some of Allen's shallow support. Every cycle there's an upset and this one will will be the upset of 06!
Ohio
I'm a huge Sherrod Brown fan but wish he would stay in the House. Like many of you, I was disgusted with how the Party treated Paul Hackett and believe
Brown is certainly not a weak candidate, however. He is the House's strongest fair trade advocate and lead a near successful fight against CAFTA earlier this year. In a state in as bad economic shape as Ohio, Brown's true blue populism will resonate with voters. Perhaps he is too progressive and a more moderate candidate like gubenatorial nominee, Ted Strickland, would be a better fit. Still, with Dewine's approvals going to hell as fast as they are, I would call this a pickup right now.
Competetive Seats That Will End Up Dissappointing Us
Pennsylvania
Santorum will win. Why? Because Bob Casey is too divisive of a figure within the Democratic Party. Personally, I really like the guy. As someone who is extremely torn on abortion, Casey's anti-choice position is not a big issue with me. I completely understand those who are passionate about the issue and I don't mean to trivialize its importance. But the bottom line is that a Democratic controlled Senate is much less of a danger to Roe v Wade than a Republican one.
Furthermore, even the Democratic establishment in PA is showing signs of snubbing Casey. Ed Rendell's interview with the Weekly Standard, in which he came just short of flat out endorsing Santorum, was totally uncalled for puts him in the same league as Lieberman as far as party loyalty goes. I don't know what the fuck is wrong with Ed Rendell, but I if he doesn't get his shit together soon, Santorum will have some great ad material.
But I want to get back to Casey's more moderate views because I think that is the important issue in why I am so pessimistic. In 2000, Ron Klink, a pro-gun, pro-life Democrat lost to Santorum by five percent. Is Bob Casey another Ron Klink? I don't think we can blame Klink's loss on his moderate views and failure to energize the state's progressive base. Afterall, he was from far western PA and wasn't even close to having the name recognizition that Casey has.
Still, with a the Republican subsidized Green Party of PA getting a candidate on the ballot, enough progressive votes might get away from Casey to swing the election towards Santorum. Chuck Pennacchio acted like an asshole in failing to endorse Casey. With all this to take into consideration, along with the fact that the latest SUSA poll gives Santorum a net approval rating, I predicit a very close Santorum victory.
Rhode Island (In this scenario: Chafee gets the nod)
Lincoln Chafee will be extremely tough to beat if he gets the nomination. Chafee will get a bounce from the primary and will look reasonable in the minds of voters compared to Laffey. The primary could almost be a race between a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican. Chafee, although a loyal Republican, does not have a horrible voting record (he's horrible on trade, but not much else from what I can see at least).
Frankly, I'd like to see him switch parties. Even though he wouldn't be the best Democrat from a stronghold like Rhode Island, it would allow us to focus on other races where a Democratic candidate is lagging behind in fundraising.
Tennessee
I really, really hate to put this one here because I think Harold Ford is a good candidate. He's arguably our best fundraiser this cycle and he has crafted a voting record in the House that fits well with mainstream Tennessee.
Despite Ford's strengths, however, he brings plenty of baggage. His last name for one, is not something he should be proud of. His uncle John Ford, for instance, was caught in a huge sting operation last year. Many of yall probably know all about the Ford family but if you don't just google them you'll know what exactly I'm talking about.
Ford has never been implicated in any of his family's corruption but he has certainly benefitted from it. Furthermore, being from Memphis will not help him at all in the rest of the state.
Had the more conservative Ed Bryant or Van Hilleary have gotten the nomination, I would put this down as a close pickup. But Corker was clearly the best Repub in the field and I don't see Ford edging him out this time around.
Republican Pickups
None.
I think their best shot is Maryland. Call me crazy but I think Michael Steele is an incredibly strong candidate. I'm an Mfume supporter. Not only do I like him more than Cardin, I think he is more elecatble and wrote a diary explaining this a month or two ago. Rasmussen has this race tightening up but with such bad news for the Republicans, I don't see a blue state like Maryland electing a Republican to an open seat.
New Jersey, my old homestate, will stay in the Dem column. Tom Kean isn't ready for primetime. He's not his father and voters will clearly understand this. Aside from name recognizition and a popular surname, Kean has nothing. He is a dipshit and a political dunce who will get beat handidly by a savy and expereinced Bob Menendez.
Minnesota will stay Dem as well. Amy Klobuchar is a solid candidate. Mark Kennedy is not. He is way too conservative for MN and more so then current Repub Sen. Norm Coleman. I hear people say MN is trending Repub but I don't see it at all.
At the end of the day, we're looking at a net gain of at least four seats. If Laffey gets the nod, make that 5. Furthermore, Tennessee and Pennsylvania are not lost causes by any stretch of the imagination.
So the final verdict: 2006 is a bit too early to take back the Senate. 2008, however, will be our year. There are a lot of uncertainties with the 08 Senate races but it's looking good. Wayne Allard of Colorado will loose to Mark Udall. Other endangered Republican incumbents include Norm Coleman, John Sunnunu, John Cornyn (to my suprise, his approvals are pretty low), among others. The Repubs will have a shot at some Dem seats as well but not enough to offset Dem gains.
It feels so good to be excited for election season. After a heartbraker two years ago, we definitely deserve some exitement.