This is my (very) belated July update for House races, which barely makes it in August. The big news since the last posting (
http://www.dailykos.com/...) is the release of the second quarter fundraising numbers.
At this point, I rank no fewer than 83 GOP-held seats as being at least somewhat vulnerable to turnover based on the district and the state of the race. There are also 24 Democratically held seats that are at least somewhat vulnerable. The likelihood of losses of any of these 25 looks unlikely at this point, especially those in the bottom half. Those are races like the lower ranked GOP seats--races in potentially marginal territory where the challenger party has a credible candidate with the resources to compete. The difference is that with the national climate (and the fact that the GOP defense list is three times as long and the two parties are competing at near financial parity), the long-shot challenges to Republican incumbents may well turn into close races and even huge election-night upsets; the long-shot challenges to Democrats like Allyson Schwartz and Pete DeFazio are unlikely to make the incumbents break a sweat.
Charlie Cook, the best analyst in the business, has predicted a Democratic "rout" in a recent column: (http://nationaljournal.com/...) His publication, the Cook Report (edited by Amy Walter), lists 1 Republican seat as Lean Dem and 17 more as tossups, with no Democratic seats falling as tossups or Lean Republican. Further, it has 18 more Republican seats and only 10 Democratic seats in the "lean" category: (http://www.cookpolitical.com/...). Cook notes that both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) have far more cash to spend on the races this year than their Republican counterparts.
While the Republican National Committee has far more money than the DNC, the Republican committees as a whole have $91 million (with about half coming from the RNC) and the Democratic committees have $80 million. Why is this significant? Because the national Republicans spent seven figures to win last year's special election in Ohio 02 and a whopping $5 million to eke out a victory in this June's special in California 50. They will not be able to do that in November, not with as many as 84 House seats and 9 Senate seats to defend.
There are other signs that the Republican majorities are running scared. As this is a House diary, I will highlight three items relevant to House elections:
First, as kos frontpaged a while back, the Republicans have used some of their cash to prop up their nominee in Idaho's first district, a district that gave Bush 70% of the two party vote in both 2000 and 2004. This race is not in my top 50 pickup opportunities for the Democrats.
Second, NRCC Chair Tom Reynolds recently gave a press conference in which he discussed Republican efforts in key races. He revealed that the Republicans have conducted polling in a number of their districts that they consider vulnerable. Among those is West Virginia 02, another race not in my top 50.
Third, in that same address, Reynolds omitted reference to freshman Rep. Geoff Davis's defense of Kentucky 04 against former Rep. Ken Lucas despite the fact that Lucas has been consistently leading by 9-14 in both partisan and non-partisan polling. I assumed that this was either hubris or an honest oversight. Not so, according to one "unnamed GOP insider"; Davis has been "written off." (http:--news.kypost.com-apps-pbcs.dll-article?AID=-20060803-NEWS02-608030367-1014-NEWS02) If the Republicans are indeed writing off incumbents--especially incumbents from districts Bush won twice by over 20 points--they are in big trouble.
Finally, I think that it's telling that there are so many more partisan Democratic polls floating around. While you always must take partisan polls with a grain of salt, they are generally not complete fabrications. Further, most campaigns do their own polling. Whether or not they elect to leak the results of that polling generally depends on one thing: whether it makes their candidate look good. The mere fact that there has been a glut of Democratic polls released and very few Republican polls released is a very good sign. I include poll results in the rankings this month.
Other key developments include the GOP being forced to run a write-in campaign against Nick Lampson in Tom DeLay's TX-22 (good for the Dems) and Bob Ney dropping out of his reelection campaign, most likely to be replaced by state senator Joy Padgett (not good for the Dems.
The rankings include the following information, in order: 1) rank; 2) district; 3) my ranking last time (in parentheses); 4) the National Journal's ranking; 5) the Cook Report's rating; 6) the Democratic candidate(s)'s name; 7) the Dem's fundraising numbers in parentheses--there are three numbers: total raised, total raised in second quarter 2006, cash on hand (all figures in thousands); 8-9) the same for the Republican candidate(s); 10) the generic partisan makeup of the district, based on the past two Presidential election results and the Cook PVI; and 11) polls. An asterisk after a candidate's name indicates an incumbent. For incumbents, I also include the '04 and '02 winning percentages. For district maps, go here: (http://www.nationalatlas.gov/...)
Republican seats
First Tier
1. Iowa 01 (1). NJ: #1. CR: Tossup. Dem: Bruce Braley ($825K-$335K-$131K). Rep: Mike Whalen ($951K-$448K-$215K). District is generically 55% D, 45% R. There are no polls. Braley has a slight edge on Whalen, especially since Chet Culver is running strong against current incumbent Jim Nussle in the governor's race.
2. Colorado 07 (2). NJ: #2. CR: Tossup. Dem: Ed Perlmutter ($1007K-$300K-$515K). Rep: Rick O'Donnell ($1254K-$308K-$856K). District: 52% D, 48% R. Polling: A recent SurveyUSA poll had Perlmutter and O'Donnell tied at 45-45. As in Iowa 01, the sitting incumbent is running for governor and is having a tougher than expected time of it. Perlmutter won the primary convincingly and should have some momentum heading into the general.
3. Arizona 08 (3). NJ: #6. CR: Tossup. Dems: Gabrielle Giffords ($862K-$292K-$588K) or Patty Weiss ($320K-$137K-$145K). Reps: Jon Huffman (FEC info unavailable), Randy Graf ($292K-$161K-$51K), or Mike Hellon ($199K-$97K-$47K). District: 52% R, 48% D. There are no polls. Giffords continues to look like the strongest candidate on either side in this race.
4. Pennsylvania 06 (5). NJ: #3 CR: Tossup. Dem: Lois Murphy ($2069K-$747K-$1403K). Rep: Jim Gerlach (inc) (51% in '04, 51% in '02) ($2236K-$471K-$1303K). District: 52% D, 48% R. Polling: A recent poll for Murphy had Murphy 42, Gerlach 41. Larry Sabato has made this the first race he moved into the "lean Dem" category based on the reasoning that a guy who could only get 51% in '02 and '04 won't be able to get there this year.
5. Connecticut 02 (4). NJ: #7. CR: Tossup. Dem: Joe Courtney ($1264K-$458K-$988K). Rep: Rob Simmons (inc) (54% in '04, 54% in '02) ($1897K-$546K-$1283K). District: D 57%, R 43%. There are no polls. Lamont vs. Lieberman will mean huge turnout for Connecticut Dems.
6. Indiana 09 (10). NJ: #5. CR: Tossup. Dem: Baron Hill ($1172K-$544K-$973K). Rep: Mike Sodrel (inc) (50%-50% over Hill in '04, lost 53%-47% to Hill in '02) ($1743K-don't have-$1139K). District: R 57%, D 42%. Polling: Hill internals 3-06: Hill 48, Sodrel 38. The sorry state of the GOP in Indiana probably dooms Sodrel this year.
7. Connecticut 04 (8). NJ: #4. CR: Tossup. Dem: Nancy Farrell ($1892K-$789K-$1396K). Rep: Chris Shays (inc) (52% against Farrell in '04, 64% in '02) ($2349K-$641K-$1508K). District: D 55%, R 45%. No polling. See CT-02 comment. Simmons' district is slightly more Dem-friendly, but the Shays-Farrell race has always been more about Iraq. With the fall in CT shaping up as it is, it's hard to see how either Republican incumbent survives.
8. Texas 22 (30). NJ: #8. CR: Lean Dem. Dem: Nick Lampson ($2909K-$609K-$2157K). Reps: Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (write in). District: R 65%, D 35%. The GOP got its first bit of good news in awhile when Sugar Land Mayor David Wallace (R) ended his write-in bid, leaving Sekula-Gibbs as the lone GOPer running a write-in campaign. As Charlie Wilson (OH-06) proved, you can win a write in campaign, but the hill is a steep one. Cook made this the first race to move into the lean takeover category.
9. Kentucky 04 (14). NJ: #13. CR: Tossup. Dem: Ken Lucas ($730K-$339K-$610K). Rep: Geoff Davis (inc) (55% in '04, lost 52-48 to Lucas in '02) ($2433K-$809K-$1555K). District: R 62%, D 38%. Polling: SUSA 7-06: Lucas 50, Davis 41; Lucas' own polling 7-06: Lucas 47, Davis 37. Are the Republicans writing off Davis? Doubtful. Is he in trouble? You bet.
10. New Mexico 01 (6). NJ: #CR: Tossup. Dem: Patricia Madrid ($1785K-$649K-$1259K). Rep: Heather Wilson (inc) (54% in '04, 55% in '02) ($2883K-$884K-$2053K). District: D 52%, R 48%. Polling: FWIW, a Dem poll from January had Wilson 44, Madrid 43. Wilson is desperately trying to get traction from the scandal in the state treasurer's office; if the race is about Wilson and her support of the Bush agenda, she loses. If it's about Madrid's running of the state AG office, Wilson has a chance.
11. Indiana 08 (7). NJ: #12. CR: Tossup. Dem: Brad Ellsworth ($1036K-$591K-$676K). Rep: Jon Hostettler (inc) (54% in '04, 53% in '02) ($287K-$217K-$195K). District: 59% R, 41% D. Polling: FWIW, a Dem poll from December 2005 had Ellsworth 44, Hostettler 41. Hostettler also has an uphill battle with the falling fortunes of his party in his state.
12. New York 24 (11). NJ: #11 CR: Lean Rep. Dem: Mike Arcuri ($455K-$258K-$346K). Rep: Ray Meier ($497K-$321K-$424K). District: D 52%, R 48%. No polling. Arcuri is looking strong in the type of swing district the Dems must win in 2006.
13. North Carolina 11 (12). NJ: #18. CR: Tossup. Dem: Heath Shuler ($1088K-$647K-$669K). Rep: Charles Taylor (inc) (55% in '04, 57% in '02) ($984K-$349K-$238K). District: R 57%, D 43%. Polling: A recent independent poll has Shuler 51, Taylor 45. Shuler continues to run a solid first-time campaign.
14. Florida 22 (13). NJ: #9. CR: Tossup. Dem: Ron Klein ($2656K-$797K-$2132K). Rep: Clay Shaw (inc) (64% in '04, 62% in '02) ($3221K-$1301K-$3037K). District: D 53%, R 47%. No polling. Voters will choose between two polished, experienced pols in a split district. As such, this race will be a test of the anti-GOP mood.
15. Illinois 06 (16). NJ: #20. CR: Tossup. Dem: Tammy Duckworth ($1884K-$844K-$902K). Rep: Peter Roskam ($1868K-$417K-$1340K). District: R 53%, D 47%. Polling: a May '06 Dem poll had the race tied, 40-40. Duckworth has looked green at times, but is still in pretty good shape.
16. Minnesota 06 (15). NJ:#23. CR: Lean Rep. Dem: Patty Wetterling ($818K-$621K-$562K. Rep: Michelle Bachmann ($741K-$345K-$383K). District: R 55%, D 45%. Polling: FWIW, a January Dem poll had Wetterling 43, Bachmann 38. Wetterling said in '04 that the district is "unwinnable" for a Dem, but beating Michelle Bachmann in an open seat is much easier than beating Mark Kennedy as an incumbent.
17. Virginia 02 (24). NJ: #21. CR: Tossup. Dem: Phil Kellam ($730K-$366K-$517K). Rep. Thelma Drake (inc) (55% in '04) ($1408K-$538K-$708K). District: R 56%, D 44%. Polling: a July Dem poll had Kellam 45, Drake 42. Kellam appears to have benefited from MoveOn's independent ad campaign.
18. Indiana 02 (29). NJ: #32. CR: Tossup. Dem: Joe Donnelly ($592K-$337K-$435K). Rep: Chris Chocola (inc) (55% in '04, 52% in '02) ($1925K-$366K-$1554K). District: R 55%, D 45%. Polling: a recent independent South Bend Tribune poll had Donnelly 46, Chocola 41. Cook just moved this race into the tossup category. Indiana is looking like the strongest possibility to go +3 in a single state.
19. Washington 08 (19). NJ: #19. CR: Lean Rep. Dem: Darcy Burner ($1130K-$591K-$770K). Rep. Dave Reichert (inc) (53% in '04) ($1986K-$569K-$1112K). District: D 52%, R 48%. No polling. Burner continues to be a fundraising powerhouse.
20. Ohio 15 (18). NJ: #17. CR: Lean Rep. Dem: Mary Jo Kilroy ($1048K-$876K-$775K). Rep: Deborah Pryce (inc) (60% in '04; 67% in '02) ($2189K-$1440K-$1819K). District: R 51%, D 49%. Polling: A March Dem poll had Pryce 44, Kilroy 41. Columbus and greater Franklin County have been trending Dem. Pryce looks like the member of the GOP leadership in the most trouble as a result. Pryce got a dose of good news, however, when the GOP succeeded in getting a GOPer-turned-Independent kicked off the ballot.
21. Connecticut 05 (27). NJ: #29. CR: Lean Rep. Dem: Chris Murphy ($1203K-$456K-$1022K). Rep: Nancy Johnson (inc) (61% in '04, 56% in '02) ($2581K-$867K-$2621K). District: D 53%, R 46%. Polling: Two recent Dem-affiliated polls had Murphy leading narrowly: 38-35 in a Working Families Party poll, and 46-44 in Murphy's own poll. Again, the Lieberman-Lamont race will motivate Dems far more than Repubs. Murphy has put together an impressive operation and has also been the beneficiary of MoveOn ads.
22. Ohio 01 (23). NJ: #31. CR: Lean Rep. Dem: John Cranley ($1043-$855K-$776K). Rep: Steve Chabot (inc) ($1208K-$919K-$1382K). District: R 51%, D 49%. A recent Cranley poll had Cranley 49, Chabot 40, up from 45-45. Cranley is the best candidate Chabot has had to face in the toughest year he's had to run in.
23. Wisconsin 08 (17). NJ: #30. CR: Lean Rep. Dems: Steve Kagen ($1596K-$44K-$772K), Nancy Nusbaum ($858K-$189K-$340K), or Jamie Wall ($609K-$88K-$417K). Reps: John Gard ($1354K-$287K-$882K) or Terri McCormick ($129K-$13K-$3K). District: R 54%, D 46%. Polling: A July poll for Kagen had Kagen 46, Gard 36; Gard 49, Nusbaum 34. In contrast, an April poll for Nusbaum had Nusbaum 43, Gard 38; Gard 38, Kagen 32; and Gard 39, Wall 30. Gard continues to stockpile cash while the Dems fight to the Sept. 12 primary.
24. Pennsylvania 07 (21). NJ: #16. CR: Lean Rep. Dem: Joe Sestak ($1129K-$626K-$994K). Rep: Curt Weldon (inc) (60% in '04, 66% in '02) ($1412K-$692K-$1152K). District: D 53%, R 46%. No polling. If Indiana and Connecticut are the most likely places to get to +3, Pennsylvania is a close third--and one that offers a very real opportunity for a +4. Sestak continues to look strong against Weldon, who has the worst possible background this year--a veteran GOP incumbent unused to tough races defending a center-left district trending Dem.
25. Pennsylvania 08 (20). NJ: #15. CR: Lean Rep. Dem: Patrick Murphy ($961K-$455K-$495K). Rep: Mike Fitzpatrick (inc) ($2076K-$566K-$1133K). District: 53% D, 47% R. Polling: A recent Dem poll had Fitzpatrick 44, Murphy 38. Fitzpatrick is running a full-on "Republican? Who, me?" campaign. As 34 Dems who lost in 1994 can attest, that is not usually a winner.
26. Arizona 05 (22). NJ: #33. CR: Lean Rep. Dem: Harry Mitchell ($779K-$566K-$666K). Rep: J. D. Hayworth (inc) (61% in '04, 63% in '02) ($1353K-$525K-$1050K). District: 54% R, 45% D. Polling: A May SurveyUSA poll had Hayworth 50, Mitchell 45. A June Repub poll had Hayworth 49, Mitchell 34. This one is getting ugly, but with Hayworth as one of the candidates, that was a given.
27. New York 20 (26). NJ: #24. CR: Lean Rep. Dem: Kirsten Gillibrand ($1217K-$501K-$754K). Rep: John Sweeney (inc) (66% in '04, 75% in '02) ($1668K-$487K-$1009K). District: 53% R, 47% D. Polling: A much maligned June Repub poll had Sweeney 51, Gillibrand 26. Speaking of ugly races...
28. Ohio 18 (9). NJ: #26. CR: Tossup. Dem: Zack Space ($459K-$385K-$206K). Rep: Joy Padgett (most likely) (no data yet). District: R 56%, D 44%. This race took a big hit in the ratings with Ney's exit and his likely replacement by Padgett. If Padgett wins the nomination as expected, this race drops to tier two.
Tweeners
29. Nevada 03 (25). NJ: not ranked. CR: Lean Rep. Dem: Tessa Hafen ($758K-$389K-$601K). Rep: Jon Porter (inc) (57% in '04, 60% in '02) ($2281K-$512K-$1610K). District: 51% D, 49% R. No polling. Hafen has put together a strong campaign in a short time. This race is partly a test of Reid's clout; a Hafen win will go a long way toward ensuring the GOP doesn't get a Daschle style decapitation strategy against Reid off the ground in 2010.
30. Pennsylvania 10 (32). NJ: #25. CR: Lean Rep. Dem: Chris Carney ($433K-$256K-$301K). Rep: Don Sherwood (inc) (unopposed in '04 and '02) ($1072K-$334K-$479K). District: 58% R, 42% D. Polling: an April Dem poll had Sherwood leading 49-43. With DeLay and Ney now out, Sherwood is the GOP incumbent with the most damaging personal scandal issues. Carney has positioned himself well for the upset.
31. California 11 (28). NJ: #50. CR: Lean Rep. Dem: Jerry McNerney ($452K-$284K-$152K). Rep: Richard Pombo (inc) (61% in '04, 60% in '02) ($2474K-$1060K-$939K). District: 53% R, 46% D. Polling: A May 2006 poll for McNerney had him leading 46-42. If Sherwood wasn't running, the most scandal plagued GOP incumbent mantle would fall to Pombo (or his California colleague John Doolittle). Unlike Doolittle, however, Pombo has a district with a strong Dem presence. McNerney has to get his fundraising up quickly, however.
Second Tier
32. New Hampshire 02 (38). NJ: #46. CR: Lean Rep. Dem: Paul Hodes ($672K-$343K-$443K). Rep: Charles Bass (inc) (60% against Hodes in '04, 58% in '02) ($569K-$215K-$453K). District: 53% D, 47% R. Polling: A May independent poll had Bass 42, Hodes 35. Hodes is one of only four Dem challengers to outraise his incumbent GOPer opponent this cycle (and the other three all have an asterisk of a sort: Busby did her fundraising for her unsuccessful open-seat special election race and has been laying low since her June loss; the fact of Ellsworth's outraising of Hostettler is unremarkable because Hostettler is always outraised; and Shuler's outraising of Taylor is similarly unremarkable because Taylor simply cuts himself a check when he needs to). This is a major sleeper race.
33. Colorado 04 (36). NJ: 40. CR: Likely Rep. Dem: Angie Paccione ($700K-$302K-$382K). Rep: Marilyn Musgrave (inc) (53% in '04, 57% in '02) ($2092K-$242K-$1083K). District: 59% R, 41% D. Polling: a recent SurveyUSA poll has Musgrave 46, Paccione 42. Paccione and Dems are hoping that homophobia as a sole legislative priority is not a winning platform in 2006 even in a district with a generic 18-poit GOP edge.
34. Florida 09 (37). NJ: #48. CR: Likely Rep. Dem: Phyllis Busansky ($723K-$335K-$529K). Rep: Gus Bilirakis ($1484K-$267K-$1020K). District: 54% R, 45% D. No polling. Busansky had a major fundraising quarter and is looking increasingly viable in this race. Bilirakis has to beat the trend of family members of outgoing incumbents trying to inherit their House seats (see Gibbons, Dawn, and Tauzin, Billy III)--at least when they run for them legitimately rather than working the system to get appointed. Dan Lipinski, I'm looking at you.
35. Florida 13 (31). NJ: not ranked. CR: Likely Rep. Dems: Christine Jennings ($789K-$181K-$506K) or Jan Schneider ($170K-$47K-$114K). Reps: Vern Buchanan ($2209K-$604K-$771K), Tramm Hudson ($959K-$195K-$612K), Nancy Detert ($243K-$115K-$92K), or Mike Flanagan (no data). District: 54% R, 45% D. No polling. At least one of these Florida open seat races will end up being very close. GOPer Tramm Hudson has reinforced the racist theme recently pushed by Sen. George Allen, stating that "blacks can't swim."
36. New York 29 (34). NJ: not ranked. CR: Lean Rep. Dem: Eric Massa ($499K-$188K-$191K). Rep: Randy Kuhl (inc) (56% in '04) ($889K-$180K-$563K). District: 55% R, 45% D. An April Dem poll had Kuhl leading 43-40. Massa has looked strong in an area that has been trending Dem. He will be a beneficiary of coattails in November. Still, this is arguably the most GOP district in New York.
37. New Jersey 07 (33). NJ: not ranked. CR: Lean Rep. Dem: Linda Stender ($900K-$529K-$650K). Rep: Mike Ferguson (inc) (58% in '04, 59% in '02) ($2047K-$513K-$1514K). District: 51% R, 49% D. Polling: a June Dem poll had Ferguson leading 54-35. A Republican who's already too conservative for his district facing a local state legislator in a Democratic year. The components for a Stender win are certainly there.
38. Kentucky 03 (41). NJ: 49. CR: Lean Rep. Dem: John Yarmuth ($855K-$524K-$418K). Rep: Anne Northup (inc) (61% in '04, 52% in '02) ($2154K-$400K-$1854K). District: 52% D, 48% R. Polling: a June Dem poll had Northup leading 47-46. Northup has frustrated Dems for 10 years. Will the wave of 2006 be the end?
39. New Hampshire 01 (39). NJ: 41. CR: Lean Rep. Dems: Jim Craig ($262K-$85K-$194K), Carol Shea-Porter ($21K-$21K-$19K), or Gary Dodds ($159K-$53K-$1K). Rep: Jeb Bradley (inc) (63% in '04, 60% in '02) ($677K-$259K-$566K). District: 51% R, 49% D. Polling: a May independent poll had Bradley leading Craig 47-33. Craig was a highly touted recruit who has been quiet thus far.
40. Wyoming at Large (40). NJ: not ranked. CR: Likely Rep. Dem: Gary Trauner ($394K-$174K-$235K). Rep: Barbara Cubin (inc) (57% in '04, 63% in '02) ($624K-$149K-$218K). District: 69% R, 30% D. Polling: an April Rasmussen poll had Cubin 47, Trauner 43. Trauner is one of only 5 Dem challengers to have more cash on hand than their incumbent opponent at the end of Q2 (also L. Murphy (PA-06), Ellsworth (IN-08), Shuler (NC-11), and Busby (CA-50)). Cubin is very unpopular, and there may be the perfect storm conditions needed for a Dem to actually win a federal office in Wyoming.
41. North Carolina 08 (43). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe Rep. Dem: Larry Kissell ($217K-$124K-$79K). Rep: Robin Hayes (inc) (56% in '04, 55% in '02) ($1508K-$672K-$1208K). District: 53% R, 46% D. Polling: an April indy poll had Kissell 43, Hayes 35; a May Dem poll had Hayes 46, Kissell 38. This is a race I think the experts are missing. Sure, Kissell's fundraising numbers suck, especially when compared to Hayes', but Hayes is very unpopular--with good reason: Hayes was the deciding vote on CAFTA--actually switching his no vote to aye--after promising he would vote no. The trade pact has had a significant negative impact on the district, which has a large textile manufacturing industry. The fact that Kissell actually led in a poll when a large portion of those polled hadn't heard of him was significant for me. And Kissell is proving to be no slouch: he put together the single best political stunt of the cycle, paying for a local gas station to sell gas at the price it cost when Hayes first took office in 1999.
42. Minnesota 01 (50). NJ: 39. CR: Likely Rep. Dem: Tim Walz ($448K-$203K-$253K). Rep: Gil Gutknecht (inc) (62% in '04, 64% in '02) ($789K-$206K-$826K). District: 51% R, 49% D. No polling. Due to a signature screwup, Gutknecht may be forced to run as a write-in--the case is currently before the Minnesota Supreme Court. This is likely what caused Chuck Todd to move the race up seven slots in his rankings. Still, Charlie Wilson has already proved that you can win as a write-in in 2006.
43. Texas 23 (not ranked). NJ: 47. CR: Safe Rep. Dem: Ciro Rodriguez ($759K-$0K-$-80K). Rep: Henry Bonilla (inc) (70% in '04, 52% in '02) ($2280K-don't have-$2243K). District: ??. No polling. The court-drawn mini-remap in Texas ordered by the Supreme Court made three of the four affected Congressmen (Henry Cuellar (D), Lloyd Doggett (D), and Lamar Smith (R)) likely Congressmen-for-life and imperiled the fourth, Bonilla. Bonilla's district got more Hispanics, more Democrats, and former 28th District Congressman Rodriguez. In '02, Bonilla narrowly defeated Cuellar. In '04, following the DeLaymander, Cuellar defeated Rodriguez in the primary even more narrowly. Now Rodriguez likely will face Bonilla in a winnable newly-drawn district.
44. Nevada 02 (35). NJ: 44. CR: Likely Rep. Dem: Jill Derby ($704K-$266K-$514K). Rep: Dean Heller ($798K-$133K-$521K). District: 58% R, 41% D. Polling: a May Reno Gazette-Journal poll had Heller 39, Derby 31. The GOP got lucky here. Their primary yielded the best candidate; Derby would have been better off facing the wingnut Angle or the dynastic Gibbons--neither of whom were as well funded.
45. Illinois 10 (45). NJ: not ranked. CR: Likely Rep. Dem: Dan Seals ($770K-$396K-$508K). Rep: Mark Kirk (inc) (69% in '04, 64% in '02) ($2314K-$679K-$1860K). District: 53% D, 46% R. No polling. On a macro level, the GOP is down among suburbanites, among married women, and in the Midwest. That is not good news for Kirk.
46. New York 25 (47). NJ: 42. CR: Likely Rep. Dem: Dan Maffei ($332K-$125K-$207K). Rep: Jim Walsh (inc) (57% in '04, 63% in '02) ($690K-$309K-$608K). District: 53% D, 47% R. No polling. Maffei has avoided a primary, and Walsh is clearly nervous--he's up with bio ads already. This district is the most Dem-friendly of the NY GOP districts.
47. Kentucky 02 (43). NJ: not ranked. CR: Likely Rep. Dem: Mike Weaver ($423K-$211K-$335K). Rep: Ron Lewis (inc) (68% in '04, 71% in '02) ($995K-$326K-$1083K). District: 63% R, 36% D. No polling. Few districts have moved as hard away from the Dems since 1992. Lewis' shocker special election win in 1993 portended 1994. Could this be the year it starts moving back?
48. New York 19 (42). NJ: not ranked. CR: Likely Rep. Dems: John Hall ($422K-$277K-$221K), Judy Aydelott ($634K-$168K-$344K), Ben Shuldiner ($189K-$30K-$112K), or Darren Rigger ($100K-$23K-$19K). Rep: Sue Kelly (inc) (67% in '04, 73% in '02) ($1431K-$394K-$1208K). District: 52% R, 48% D. No polling. Hall looks increasingly likely to win the primary and be one of a slew of competitive Dem challengers in New York.
49. New York 03 (not ranked). NJ: 45. CR: Likely Rep. Dem: Dave Mejias ($236K-$236K-$229K). Rep: Peter King (inc) (63% in '04, 73% in '02) ($830K-don't have-$1494K). District: 51% D, 48% R. No polling. Reconsidering an earlier decision, Mejias recently jumped into the race. He is a serious candidate and his entry means the Dems have a legitimate shot at knocking off the last GOPer standing on Long Island, as well as 6, maybe 7 of the 9 New York GOPers.
50. Arizona 01 (not ranked). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe Rep. Dem: Ellen Simon ($503K-$503K-$382K). Rep: Rick Renzi (inc) (62% in '04, 52% in '02) ($1369K-$188K-$805K). District: 52% R, 48% D. No polling. Simon is a somewhat late entry, but her fundraising has raised eyebrows and caused Renzi to take seriously a race that seemed over when Jack Jackson dropped out. CQ has jumped the race from safe all the way to "lean Republican."
51. California 04 (53). NJ: not ranked. CR: Likely Rep. Dem: Charlie Brown ($254K-$157K-$74K). Rep: John Doolittle (inc) (65% in '04, 67% in '02) ($1207K-$473K-$261K). District: 61% R, 39% D. No polling. Will Doolittle be indicted before the election? Can Brown win such a GOP-leaning district even though Doolittle is up to his ears in scandal? The GOP primary revealed some weakness on Doolittle's part, but not nearly as much as fellow Californian Pombo.
52. Ohio 02 (not ranked). NJ: not ranked. CR: Likely Rep. Dem: Victoria Wulsin ($138K-don't have-$25K). Rep: Jean Schmidt (inc) (52% in '05 Special Election) ($1467K-don't have-$18K). District: 63% R, 36% D. No A July Dem poll had the race tied 44-44. Wulsin is not a particularly strong candidate, but voters may have simply had enough of "mean Jean." The partisan nature of the district will be what saves her if she wins.
53. Nebraska 01 (51). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe Rep. Dem: Maxine Moul ($538K-$328K-$370K). Rep: Jeff Fortenberry (inc) (56% in '04) ($799K-$135K-$496K). District: 62% R, 38% D. No polling. Moul is a former statewide official running a serious campaign against freshman Fortenberry. Dems' rising fortunes in Nebraska are demonstrated by the sitting state Auditors party switch from R to D.
54. Idaho 01 (61). NJ: not ranked. CR: Likely Rep. Dem: Larry Grant ($217K-$99K-$74K). Rep: Bill Sali ($553K-$262K-$92K). District: 69% R, 30% D. No polling. Sali is a seriously flawed nominee and there is already a "Republicans for Grant" group. The NRCC has surprisingly put money into this race.
55. West Virginia 02 (48). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe Rep. Dem: Mike Callaghan ($227K-$103K-$26K). Rep: Shelley Moore Capito (inc) (58% in '04, 60% in '02) ($1418K-$486K-$1076K). District: 55% R, 44% D. No polling. Callaghan was the strongest candidate in the Dem primary and presents the best chance to take back a traditionally Dem seat. The GOP polled this district, meaning that they have some concern. Callaghan needs to step up the fundraising post-primary, though.
56. Florida 16 (49). NJ: not ranked. CR: Likely Rep. Dem: Tim Mahoney ($859K-$380K-$568K). Rep: Mark Foley (inc) (68% in '04, unopposed in '02) ($1424K-$628K-$2913K). District: 52% R, 47% D. No polling. Mahoney is running a very solid campaign in a marginal district, but Foley is tough.
57. Florida 08 (56). NJ: not ranked. CR: Likely Rep. Dems: Alan Grayson ($347K-$347K-$172K), Charlie Stuart ($474K-$71K-$177K), Homer Hartage ($125K-$59K-$6K). Rep: Ric Keller (inc) (61% in '04, 65% in '02) ($959K-$201K-$1278K). District: 53% R, 46% D. No polling. Grayson now appears to be a slight favorite in the primary. Either Grayson or Stuart has the ability of giving Keller a close race.
Tweeners
58. California 50 (44). NJ: not ranked. CR: Likely Rep. Dem: Francine Busby ($2973K-$716K-$189K). Rep: Brian Bilbray (inc) (53% in June '06 Special Election) ($1669K-$1286K-$131K). District: 55% R, 45% D. No polling since the special. Busby has been quiet since her near miss in the special.
59. Iowa 02 (57). NJ: not ranked. CR: Likely Rep. Dem: Dave Loebsack ($224K-$83K-$60K). Rep: Jim Leach (inc) (60% in '04, 53% in '02) ($354K-$76K-$202K). District: 56% D, 43% R. No polling. Leach has managed to win in a Dem-leaning district for years, but never in a year with a big Dem wave.
60. Ohio 12 (not ranked). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe Rep. Dem: Bob Shamansky ($360K-don't have-$262K). Rep: Pat Tiberi (inc) (62% in '04, 64% in '02) ($1339K-don't have-$1727K). District: 51% R, 49% D. Polling: a July Dem poll had Tiberi 46, Shamansky 30. Shamansky is a former Congressman attempting to make a comeback after 20 years. The district is balanced and trending Dem.
61. Illinois 11 (60). NJ: not ranked. CR: Likely Rep. Dem: John Pavich ($436K-$109K-$277K). Rep: Jerry Weller (inc) (59% in '04, 64% in '02) ($1481K-$285K-$1029K). District: 51% R, 48% D. Polling: a June Dem poll had Weller 50, Pavich 34. Pavich may have a shot with the Midwest GOP decline.
62. New York 26 (54). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe Rep. Dem: Jack Davis ($347K-$160K-$22K). Rep: Tom Reynolds (inc) (56% in '04, 77% in '02) ($2640K-$651K-$3084K). District: 54% R, 46% D. No polling. Davis is moving slowly in his rematch with the NRCC chair.
Third Tier
63. Virginia 10 (62). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe Rep. Dem: Judy Feder ($609K-don't have-$461K). Rep: Frank Wolf (inc) (64% in '04, 72% in '02) ($888K-don't have-$636K). District: 56% R, 44% D. No polling.
64. Kansas 02 (63). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe Rep. Dem: Nancy Boyda ($301K-$299K-$164K). Rep: Jim Ryun (inc) ($593K-$273K-$422K). District: 57% R, 42% D. No polling.
65. Minnesota 02 (52). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe
Rep. Dem: Colleen Rowley ($389K-$120K-$116K). Rep: John Kline (inc) (58% in '04, 56% in '02) ($1033K-$195K-$667K). District: 53% R, 46% D. No polling.
66. Michigan 08 (64). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe Rep. Dem: Jim Marcinkowski ($311K-$165K-$226K). Rep: Mike Rogers (inc) (62% in '04, 69% in '02) ($988K-$253K-$1149K). District: 53% R, 47% D. No polling.
67. Virginia 05 (68). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe Rep. Dem: Al Weed ($211K-$118K-$96K). Rep: Virgil Goode (inc) (64% in '04, 64% in '02) ($420K-$143K-$51K). District: 56% R, 44% D. A July SurveyUSA poll had Goode 49, Weed 35.
68. Pennsylvania 04 (59). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe Rep. Dem: Jason Altmire ($363K-$177K-$136K). Rep: Melissa Hart (inc) (64% in '04, 65% in '02) ($1273K-$280K-$850K). District: 53% R, 47% D. Polling: a June Dem poll had Hart 53, Altmire 39.
69. Colorado 06 (58). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe Rep. Dem: Bill Winter ($343K-$178K-$165K). Rep: Tom Tancredo (inc) (60% in '04, 69% in '02) ($1059K-$336K-$551K). District: 60% R, 39% D. A May Dem poll had Tancredo 48, Winter 36.
70. Montana at Large (55). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe Rep. Dem: Monica Lindeen ($366K-$106K-$184K). Rep: Denny Rehberg (inc) (66% in '04, 66% in '02) ($786K-$238K-$653K). District: 60% R, 39% D. No polling.
71. New Jersey 05 (65). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe Rep. Dem: Paul Aronsohn ($323K-$74K-$92K). Rep: Scott Garrett (inc) ($777K-don't have-$477K). District: 54% R, 45% D. No polling.
72. California 26 (67). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe Rep. Dem: Cynthia Matthews ($7K-$5K-$30K). Rep: David Dreier (inc) (66% in '04, 56% in '02) ($1522K-$340K-$3016K). District: 54% R, 45% D. A recent SurveyUSA poll had Dreier 48, Matthews 35.
73. Colorado 05 (not ranked). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe Rep. Dem: Jay Fawcett ($184K-$55K-$57K). Rep: Doug Lamborn ($343K-$172K-$179K). District: 67% R, 33% D. No polling.
74. Nebraska 03 (not ranked). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe Rep. Dem: Scott Kleeb ($388K-$204K-$278K). Rep: Adrian Smith ($697K-$288K-$118K). District: 75% R, 25% D. No polling.
75. Indiana 03 (66). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe Rep. Dem: Tom Hayhurst ($207K-$52K-$148K). Rep: Mark Souder (inc) (69% in '04, 65% in '02) ($171K-$89K-$68K). District: 67% R, 33% D. No polling.
76. Iowa 04 (not ranked). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe Rep. Dem: Sheldon Spencer ($180K-$58K-$132K). Rep: Tom Latham (inc) (61% in '04, 56% in '02) ($802K-don't have-$609K). District: 50% R, 49% D. No polling.
77. Washington 05 (not ranked). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe Rep. Dem: Peter Goldmark ($228K-$200K-$135K). Rep: Cathy McMorris (inc) (60% in '04) ($993K-$126K-$467K). District: 57% R, 43% D. No polling.
78. Michigan 09 (70). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe Rep. Dem: Nancy Skinner ($180K-$58K-$132K). Rep: Joe Knollenberg (inc) ($1889K-$616K-$1431K). District: 50% R, 49% D. No polling.
79. Texas 14 (not ranked). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe Rep. Dem: Shane Sklar ($275K-$138K-$119K). Rep: Ron Paul (inc) (unopposed in '04, 68% in '02) ($943K-$224K-$395K). District: 64% R, 35% D. No polling.
80. California 45 (not ranked). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe Rep. Dem: David Roth ($396K-$124K-$126K). Rep: Mary Bono (inc) (67% in '04, 66% in '02) ($877K-$250K-$526K). District: 53% R, 46% D. No polling.
81. Illinois 15 (not ranked). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe Rep. Dem: David Gill ($123K-$37K-$32K). Rep: Tim Johnson (inc) (61% in '04, 67% in '02) ($194K-$55K-$119K). District: 56% R, 43% D. No polling.
82. Texas 32 (not ranked). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe Rep. Dem: Will Pryor ($321K-$151K-$180K). Rep: Pete Sessions (inc) (55% in '04, 69% in '02) ($1405K-$188K-$881K). District: 61% R, 39% D. No
polling.
83. California 19 (not ranked). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe Rep. Dem: T.J. Cox ($592K-$391K-$179K). Rep: George Radanovich (inc) (66% in '04, 69% in '02) ($804K-$250K-$526K). District: 60% R, 40% D. No polling.
Democratic seats
First Tier
1. Illinois 08 (1). NJ: #28. CR: Lean Dem. Dem: Melissa Bean (inc) (52% in '04) ($2878K-$561K-$2175K). Rep: David McSweeney ($984K-$349K-$238K). District: 55% R, 44% D. No polling. With each passing week, Bean looks stronger.
2. Iowa 03 (4). NJ: #14. CR: Lean Dem. Dem: Leonard Boswell (inc) (55% in '04, 54% in `02) ($1376K-$421K-$1093K). Rep: Jeff Lamberti ($1123K-$379K-$775K). District: 51% D, 49% R. No polling. Lamberti is probably the all-around strongest GOP challenger this cycle, but Boswell is fully engaged and knows how to win the close ones.
3. Vermont at Large (9). NJ: #27. CR: Lean Dem. Dem: Peter Welch ($1142K-$404K-$816K). Rep: Martha Rainville ($539K-$205K-$339K). District: 59% D, 40% R. A July ARG poll had Rainville leading 42-41. Could the Dems really lose in Vermont in 2006? The ARG poll is chilling, especially since it usually has a slight Dem bias. Still, Welch is no slouch and it is Vermont.
4. Georgia 12 (7). NJ: #22. CR: Lean Dem. Dem: John Barrow (inc) (52% in `04) ($1538K-$282K-$1339K). Rep: Max Burns ($1208K-$221K-$733K). District: 55% D, 45% R. A July GOP poll had Barrow 44, Burns 43. Burns has, surprisingly, emerged as the more viable of the two GOP ex-Congressman challengers. That said, if Barrow was able to unseat Burns in '04, how likely is it that Burns could do the same to Barrow in '06?
5. Louisiana 03 (2). NJ: #38. CR: Lean Dem. Dem: Charlie Melancon (inc) (50% in '04) ($1943K-$680K-$1652K). Rep: Craig Romero ($1287K-$504K-$959K). District: 55% R, 44% D. No polling. There is a sense that Melancon is much stronger post-Katrina.
6. Texas 17 (6). NJ: #35. CR: Lean Dem. Dem: Chet Edwards (inc) (52% in '04, 53% in `02) ($2148K-$519K-$1577K). Rep: Van Taylor ($1658K-$482K-$454K). District: 68% R, 32% D. No polling. Taylor has made some missteps, allowing Edwards to be more secure than anyone thought possible following Nov. 2004.
7. Georgia 08 (5). NJ: #14. CR: Lean Dem. Dem: Jim Marshall (inc) (63% in '04, 51% in `02) ($1165K-$277K-$1207K). Rep: Mac Collins ($1181K-$223K-$793K). District: 55% R, 45% D. Polling: a July Dem poll had Marshall 58, Collins 32. It is looking increasingly like 1) Marshall has solidified himself here; and 2) Collins does not have the geographic base to win this district.
Tweeners
8. Ohio 06 (3). NJ: not ranked. CR: Lean Dem. Dem: Charlie Wilson ($1308K-$834K-$290K). Rep: Chuck Blasdel ($780K-$187K-$277K). District: 50% D, 50% R. Polling: FWIW, a January Dem poll had Wilson leading 42-26. Wilson won his primary impressively as a write-in and has already managed to erase the financial disadvantage of having to do so. Todd dropped the race all the way out of his top 50.
9. West Virginia 01 (8). NJ: #37. CR: Lean Dem. Dem: Alan Mollohan (inc) (68% in '04, unopposed in `02) ($942K-$423K-$675K). Rep: Chris Wakim ($421K-$276K-$318K). District: 56% R, 44% D. No polling. Mollohan has had a rough few months but still appears strong.
Second Tier
10. South Carolina 05 (11). NJ: #36. CR: Likely Dem. Dem: John Spratt (inc) (63% in '04, unopposed in'02) ($1452K-$632K-$1535K). Rep: Ralph Norman ($860K-$163K-$734K). District: 56% R, 44% D. A February Dem poll had Spratt 61, Norman 21.
11. Illinois 17 (10). NJ: not ranked. CR: Likely Dem. Dem: Phil Hare ($227K-$227K-$220K). Rep: Andrea Zinga ($278K-$218K-$187K). District: 54% D, 45% R. No polling.
12. Colorado 03 (12). NJ: not ranked. CR: Likely Dem. Dem: John Salazar (inc) (52% in '04) ($1548K-$224K-$1178K). Rep: Scott Tipton ($550K-$226K-$343K). District: 56% R, 44% D. A recent SurveyUSA poll had Salazar 53, Tipton 42.
13. Ohio 13 (14). NJ: not ranked. CR: Likely Dem. Dem: Betty Sutton ($802K-$781K-$194K). Rep: Craig Foltin ($373K-don't have-$151K). District: 56% D, 44% R. A July SurveyUSA poll had Sutton 48, Foltin 30.
Tweeners
14. Hawaii 02 (17). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe Dem. Dems: Mazie Hirono ($439K-$140K-$335K), Colleen Hanabusa ($249K-$123K-$139K), Brian Schatz ($222K-$146K-$126K), Matt Matsunaga ($80K-$80K-$44K), Gary Hooser ($179K-$179K-$29K). Reps: Quentin Kwananakoa ($378K-$325K-$177K), Bob Hogue ($31K-$25K-$7K). District: 59% D, 40% R. No polling.
15. Kansas 03 (15). NJ: not ranked. CR: Likely Dem. Dem: Dennis Moore (inc) (56% in '04, 52 in `02) ($1583K-$589K-$544K). Rep: Chuck Ahner ($309K-$192K-$157K). District: 55% R, 45% D. No polling.
16. Washington 02 (16). NJ: not ranked. CR: Likely Dem. Dem: Rick Larsen (inc) (56% in '04, 52% in `02) ($1067K-$197K-$886K). Rep: Doug Roulstone ($552K-$190K-$384K). District: 52% D, 47% R. No polling.
17. Utah 02 (13). NJ: not ranked. CR: Likely Dem. Dem: Jim Matheson (inc) (56% in '04, 50% in `02) ($1275K-$340K-$1029K). Rep: LaVar Christensen ($265K-$79K-$103K). District: 68% R, 32% D. A July independent poll had Matheson 64, Christensen 23.
Third Tier
18. Louisiana 02 (18). NJ: not ranked. CR: Likely Dem. Dems: William Jefferson (inc) (79% in '04, unopposed in `02) ($632K-don't have-$325K), Karen Carter (no data), Kevin Shepherd (no data). Rep: Joe Lavigne ($235K-don't have-$201K). District: 72% D, 28% R. No polling.
19. Maryland 03 (19). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe Dem. Dems: John Sarbanes ($789K-$303K-$585K), Peter Beilenson ($672K-$140K-$292K), Paula Hollinger ($672K-$231K-$271K), Kevin O'Keeffe ($194K-$50K-$166K), Oz Bengur ($528K-$132K-$123K). Reps: Gary Applebaum ($260K-$125K-$244K), Joe White ($106K-$5K-$43K). District: 57% bD, 43% R. No polling.
20. Oregon 05 (not ranked). NJ: not ranked. CR: Likely Dem. Dem: Darlene Hooley (inc) (55% in '04, 55% in `02) ($855K-don't have-$856K). Rep: Mike Erickson ($312K-$312K-$32K). District: 52% D, 48% R. No polling.
21. North Carolina 13 (20). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe Dem. Dem: Brad Miller (inc) (59% in '04, 57% in `02) ($968K-$591K-$541K). Rep: Vernon Robinson ($805K-$624K-$467K). District: 52% D, 48% R. No polling.
22. Minnesota 08 (21). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe Dem. Dem: Jim Oberstar (inc) (67% in '04, 69% in `02) ($816K-don't have-$439K). Rep: Rod Grams ($135K-$135K-$94K). District: 54% D, 46% R. No polling.
23. Oregon 04 (not ranked). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe Dem. Dem: Pete DeFazio (inc) (62% in '04, 65% in `02) ($508K-$75K-$368K). Rep: Jim Feldkamp ($323K-$103K-$240K). District: 50% R, 49% D. No polling.
24. Pennsylvania 13 (24). NJ: not ranked. CR: Safe Dem. Dem: Allyson Schwartz (inc) (58% in '04) ($2167K-$438K-$1491K). Rep: Raj Bhakta ($269K-$47K-$28K). District: 58% D, 42% R. No polling.