A month ago, the world of political junkies was slightly rocked by the news that the GOP is worried about one of their House seats in, to quote Markos, "
freakin' Idaho?"
The Hill reported that the GOP "Retain Our Majority" effort was sinking a lot of money into what is supposed to be one of their safest seats.
That seat is Idaho's 1st Congressional District, a huge swath of land stretching from Nevada to Canada, taking in a good chunk of the southwest part of the state and all of the panhandle. The seat has been reliably Republican since the Gingrich revolution of 1994 ripped it out from under us. It went for Bush 69-30 in 2004. It's being vacated now by Butch Otter, who has chosen to run for Governor. So why the consternation? The GOP elected the single most divisive, unpopular, unpleasant, and out-and-out wing-nut crazy (and that's saying a lot in Idaho) member of the state legislature in the GOP primary. More on him later.
And the Democratic candidate? Larry Grant, our newest Netroots challenger. An unapologetic Democrat who lists John F. Kennedy, Martin Luther King Jr., and Idaho hero former U.S. Sen. Frank Church has his greatest political influences, Grant has well established credentials in Idaho's business community, having served as general counsel for Micron Technology. While there, Grant initiated the case that led to the U.S.-Japan Semiconductor Trade Agreement of 1986, an agreement that prevented Japanese firms from dumping semi-conductor chips in the American market. The agreement largely saved the new company, and Micron has become the state's biggest employer. One veteran political observer, the Idaho Stateman's Dan Popkey, describes Grant:
Competence is his strength. Raised in Fruitland, his dad worked for Union Pacific for 42 years. He lives a mile from his boyhood home and has a local-kid-made-good story: He went to Columbia on a scholarship, got his law degree at the University of Denver, practiced in Colorado and Idaho. In 1985, he became Micron Technology's first general counsel and a vice president.
He was at Micron for 10 years, then worked in Silicon Valley. He speaks the language of high-tech Idaho. He also knows campaign nuts and bolts, having been the campaign treasurer for ex-Rep. Larry LaRocco, the last Democrat to hold the 1st District seat that runs from Cole Road in Boise west to Oregon and north to Canada.
That competence has made Idaho native Grant a compelling enough candidate that a group of very prominent Idaho Republicans have formed Republicans for Grant. The last time a group of Idaho Republicans defected to a Democrat, he won: Governor Cecil Andrus in 1986, in his return to Idaho politics. Grant also has the enthusiastic endorsement of that political icon as well as the real force in Democratic politics in Idaho, Bethine Church. When Bethine speaks, people open up their checkbooks, all over the country.
Of course, the enthusiasm for Grant has a lot to do with the character of his opponent, Bill Sali. Popkey on Sali:
Sali heads into the fall carrying heavy baggage and a thin mandate:
* The Kuna Republican won a bitter six-way primary with an unimpressive 26 percent of the vote. Yes, all six candidates ran assertive campaigns. And yes, Idaho's open primaries invite crossover voting from cantankerous independents and mischievous Democrats. But nearly three fourths of everyone who voted in the GOP primary chose someone other than Sali.
* Let's look at the voters who chose Sali. He received 18,965 votes. Those aren't enough voters to fill Bronco Stadium to two-thirds capacity -- and they don't constitute a power base.
To put Sali's vote count into perspective, let's look back to 2000, the last time Republicans decided an open race in the 1st Congressional District. C.L. "Butch" Otter won an eight-way primary (albeit a field supersized with five fringe candidates) and emerged with a base. He collected 41,516 votes, more than twice as many votes as Sali received Tuesday.
* Given Sali's 16-year legislative record -- marked more by contentiousness than consensus -- there's no guarantee rank-and-file Republicans will unify around him.
In April, House Speaker Bruce Newcomb dismissed Sali with the soundbite of the 2006 session: "That idiot is just an absolute idiot." On Wednesday, Newcomb's feelings were barely under the surface. The Burley Republican said he was "disappointed," said the nomination "leaves an opening for a Democrat," and wouldn't say whether he would support Sali. "I don't want to make any comments yet."
Republicans are piling up in their refusal to endorse Sali, whose best friends and fundraisers come from out of state, primarily ROMP and the Club for Growth, which spent $300K getting Sali elected in the primary. Former Idaho GOP governor Phil Batt has said he might just sit this race out, and even Mike Simpson, current Member of Congress for Idaho's 2nd District is, at best, lukewarm on Sali:
Bill Sali, a GOP state representative, recently won the nomination for Otter's seat. Ever since, Simpson has barely been able to contain his dislike for Sali.
"There's a serious question about whether he can win the race," said Simpson....
So what about the bad blood between Simpson and Sali? When Simpson was Speaker of the Idaho House, he once threatened to throw Sali out a window after Sali opposed one of Simpson's amendments.
"I won't say anything bad about him," Simpson said. "I won't campaign against him. I won't support the Democrat, I'll say that."
There are no guarantees in Idaho politics, and this race is really unprecedented. While Idaho remains one of the few states that has a net approval for Bush, the sheer hatred of Sali, and the lack of support he's getting from local Republicans, is going to be a significant factor. Add in the effect of tremendous population growth in the state, with a very significant part of that growth in the state's Hispanic population, much of it in this district. Recognizing this, Grant has headquartered his campaign in Canyon County, home to a large percentage of the state's Hispanic population, the first campaign for a congressional or statewide seat to abandon Boise as the default headquarters location. Smart move on Grant's part.
So the stars have aligned for Idaho's best chance of a pick-up in well over a decade, just one of the reasons why netroots support for Grant is so critical. Dean has given the Idaho Democrats some hope and an infusion of cash, but Grant has yet to see much institutional support, even though the national GOP has found themselves in the position of having to sink money into it. The GOP is scared, and Democrats need to strike now, forcing them to spend even more.
(Click on image to enlarge.)