It really is a shame, but I'm not seeing how Angelides and the Democrats pull this one off.
SurveyUSA. 8/25-28. Likely voters. MoE 4.4% (No trend lines)
Schwarzenegger (R) 52
Angelides (D) 38
While I like SUSA a lot, I have to note that they've never seemed comfortable polling California, so many doubt their results in the Golden State. Unfortunately, the top pollsters in the state seem to agree that Arnold has all the momentum.
Rasmussen. 7/20. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (7/5 results)
Schwarzenegger (R) 47 (46)
Angelides (D) 41 (44)
A new Rasmussen poll of the race soon to be released will show little changed from the July 20th poll.
Field Poll (PDF). 7/10-23. Likely voters. MoE 3.8% (5/23-31 results)
Schwarzenegger (R) 45 (46)
Angelides (D) 37 (39)
The Field Poll is the most accurate pollster in California history. It pegged the race at 44-40 in April and tied 39-39 in February. Not great trends.
Public Policy Institute of California (PDF). 7/5-18. Adults. MoE 2% (May 14-21 results)
Schwarzenegger (R) 43 (38)
Angelides (D) 30 (38)
Now, someone will say, "What about the unions? They kicked ass during the special election last Fall." Yes, they did. But they are invisible now, and they have let Arnold rebuild his tattered image.
Unlike Bush who can do no wrong and refuses to "show weakness" by saying he screwed up, Schwarzenegger apologized to the people of California and hired a Democrat as his top aide. Californians, apparently, are a forgiving bunch, and Democrats and their allies did nothing to press their advantages late last year and early this year.