Last week, I updated my own rankings, which can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/.... I also keep track of what the professionals are saying. In that category, I consider the National Journal's Chuck Todd, the Cook Report's Amy Walter, Roll Call, Stu Rothenberg of Rothenberg Political Report, Larry Sabato of Sabato's Crystal Ball, Congressional Quarterly, and the WaPo's Chris Cilizza. June's composite did not include Sabato or Rothenberg; this month's update has all of the above. In these lists, I do not include my own rankings.
Of the handicappers, the Cook Report, CQ, Rothenberg, Sabato, and Roll Call use a three-tier rating system ("tossup" or "no clear favorite"; "leans [party]"; and "likely [party]" or "[party] favored"), while the National Journal and Cilizza rank the seats without providing a tiered rating. Thus, to combine the two methods, I created a numerical rubric. For Todd and Cilizza, I simply assigned a point score inverting the rankings (i.e. #1 in a top 50 list gets 50 points, #50 gets 1). FWIW, Todd produces a top 50 list, while Cilizza's is only top-20.
For the five rating services, I assigned 45 points for tossup races, 30 for lean races, and 15 points for likely races (this month, for the first time, some handicappers are putting some GOP seats in lean or even likely Dem. I used 53 for Rothenberg's tossup/lean Dem, 60 points for a pure lean Dem, and 75 for a likely Dem. I also used 37 for Rothenberg's tossup/lean GOP category).
I present the composites both in terms of tiered rating and ranked by total points. Last month's rankings and totals are in parentheses. Also, since there are so many more points to be had this month from the extra two reports I included, for comparison's sake I give both the numerical score and the percentage of the points a race would have gotten if everyone listed it as a tossup or ranked it #1. Here's what they say ten weeks from Election Day:
GOP Seats
Tweener, Tossup to Lean Dem (295+)
1. Texas 22 (306 (104%)) (14t-131 (64%)) (Nick Lampson (D) vs. Shelly Sekula-Gibbs (R-write in)
2. Pennsylvania 06 (304 (103%)) (4-198 (97%)) (Lois Murphy (D) vs. Jim Gerlach* (R))
3. Iowa 01 (303 (103%)) (1t-204 (100%)) (OPEN: Bruce Braley (D) vs. Mike Whalen (R))
4. Colorado 07 (301 (102%)) (1t-204 (100%)) (OPEN: Ed Perlmutter (D) vs. Rick O'Donnell (R))
5. Arizona 08 (296 (100%)) (7t-180 (88%)) (OPEN: Giffords/Weiss/Latas (D) vs. Huffman/Hellon/Graf (R))
Tossups (220+)
6. Indiana 09 (294 (100%)) (5-192 (94%)) (Baron Hill (D) vs. Mike Sodrel* (R))
7. Indiana 08 (283 (96%)) (6-184 (90%)) (Brad Ellsworth (R) vs. Jon Hostettler* (R))
8.Connecticut 04 (276 (94%)) (12-151 (74%)) (Diane Farrell (D) vs. Chris Shays* (R))
9. Connecticut 02 (268 (91%)) (7t-180 (88%)) (Joe Courtney (D) vs. Rob Simmons* (R))
10. Ohio 18 (267 (91%)) (3-200 (98%)) (OPEN: Zack Space (D) vs. Joy Padgett (R))
11. New Mexico 01 (261 (88%)) (9-176 (86%)) (Patricia Madrid (D) vs. Heather Wilson* (R))
12. Florida 22 (250 (85%)) (10-164 (80%)) (Ron Klein (D) vs. Clay Shaw* (R))
13. Kentucky 04 (241 (82%)) (11-154 (75%)) (Ken Lucas (D) vs. Geoff Davis* (R))
14. Illinois 06 (239 (81%)) (18-119 (58%)) (OPEN: Tammy Duckworth (D) vs. Peter Roskam (R))
15. New York 24 (235 (80%)) (13-138 (67%)) (OPEN: Mike Arcuri (D) vs. Ray Meier (R))
16. Virginia 02 (227 (77%)) (21-109 (53%)) (Phil Kellam (D) vs. Thelma Drake* (R))
17. North Carolina 11 (220 (75%)) (14t-131 (64%)) (Heath Shuler (D) vs. Charles Taylor (R))
Tweeners (205-219)
18. Indiana 02 (207 (70%)) (25-97 (47%)) (Joe Donnelley (D) vs. Chris Chocola* (R))
Lean Rep (130-204)
19. Pennsylvania 07 (204 (69%)) (20-110 (54%)) (Joe Sestak (D) vs. Curt Weldon* (R))
20. Minnesota 06 (200 (68%)) (16t-126 (61%)) (OPEN: Patty Wetterling (D) vs. Michelle Bachmann (R))
21. Ohio 15 (199 (67%)) (16t-126 (61%)) (Mary Jo Kilroy (D) vs. Deborah Pryce (R))
22. Pennsylvania 08 (193 (65%)) (19-112 (55%)) (Patrick Murphy (D) vs. Mike Fitzpatrick* (R))
23. Washington 08 (192 (65%)) (26-96 (47%)) (Darcy Burner (D) vs. Dave Reichert* (R))
24. Pennsylvania 10 (183 (62%)) (22-108 (53%)) (Chris Carney (D) vs. Don Sherwood* (R))
25. Connecticut 05 (179 (61%)) (28-90 (44%)) (Chris Murphy (D) vs. Nancy Johnson* (R))
26t. New York 20 (177 (60%)) (29-85 (41%)) (Kirsten Gillibrand (D) vs. John Sweeney* (R))
26t. Ohio 01 (177 (60%)) (24-104 (51%)) (John Cranley (D) vs. Steve Chabot* (R))
28. Wisconsin 08 (171 (58%)) (23-105 (51%)) (OPEN: Nusbaum/Kagen/Wall (D) vs. John Gard (R))
29. Arizona 05 (153 (52%)) (27-94 (46%)) (Harry Mitchell* (D) vs. J.D. Hayworth (R))
Tweeners (115-129)
30. New York 29 (120 (41%)) (35t-60 (29%)) (Eric Massa (D) vs. Randy Kuhl* (R))
Likely Rep (45-114)
31. Kentucky 03 (107 (36%)) (35t-60 (29%)) (John Yarmuth (D) vs. Anne Northup* (R))
32t. Florida 13 (105 (36%)) (39-54 (26%)) (OPEN: Jennings/Schneider (D) vs. Buchanan/Hudson/Detert/Flanagan (R))
32t. Nevada 03 (105 (36%)) (34-61 (30%)) (Tessa Hafen (D) vs. Jon Porter* (R))
34. Nevada 02 (97 (33%)) (38-56 (27%)) (OPEN: Jill Derby (D) vs. Dean Heller (R))
35. Texas 23 (94 (32%)) (not listed-0 (0%)) (Ciro Rodriguez (D) vs. Henry Cuellar* (R))
36. California 11 (91 (31%)) (31-68 (33%)) (Jerry McNerney (D) vs. Richard Pombo* (R))
37. New Jersey 07 (90 (31%)) (32-63 (31%)) (Linda Stender (D) vs. Mike Ferguson* (R))
38. Colorado 04 (86 (29%)) (37-58 (28%)) (Angie Paccione (D) vs. Marilyn Musgrave* (R))
39. New York 25 (84 (28%)) (48-36 (18%)) (Dan Maffei (D) vs. Jim Walsh* (R))
40. New Hampshire 02 (80 (27%)) (33-62 (30%)) (Paul Hodes (D) vs. Charles Bass* (R))
41t. New York 19 (75 (25%)) (44t-45 (22%)) (Hall/Aydelott/Shuldiner (D) vs. Sue Kelly* (R))
41t. Wyoming at Large (75 (25%)) (49t-30 (15%)) (Gary Trauner (D) vs. Barbara Cubin* (R))
43. Florida 09 (63 (21%)) (41t-46 (22%)) (OPEN: Phyllis Busansky (D) vs. Gus Bilirakis (R))
44t. California 50 (60 (20%)) (30-78 (38%)) (Francine Busby (D) vs. Brian Bilbray* (R))
44t.Kentucky 02 (60 (20%)) (44t-45 (22%)) (Mike Weaver (D) vs. Ron Lewis* (R))
46. Minnesota 01 (57 (19%)) (41t-46 (22%)) (Tim Walz (D) vs. Gil Gutknecht* (R))
47. New Hampshire 01 (55 (19%)) (40-50 (24%)) (Craig/Dodds/Shea-Porter (D) vs. Jeb Bradley* (R))
48. New York 03 (51 (17%)) (not rated-0 (0%)) (Dave Mejias (D) vs. Peter King* (R))
49t. Arizona 01 (45 (15%)) (not rated-0 (0%)) (Ellen Simon (D) vs. Rick Renzi* (R))
49t. Florida 08 (45 (15%)) (41t-46 (22%)) (Grayson/Stuart/Hartage (D) vs. Ric Keller* (R))
49t. Florida 16 (45 (15%)) (47-42 (20%)) (Tim Mahoney (D) vs. Mark Foley* (R))
49t. Iowa 02 (45 (15%)) (44t-45 (22%)) (Dave Loebsack (D) vs. Jim Leach* (R))
49t. Illinois 10 (45 (15%)) (53t-15 (7%)) (Dan Seals (D) vs. Mark Kirk* (R))
49t.Minnesota 02 (45 (15%)) (49t-30 (15%)) (Colleen Rowley (D) vs. John Kline* (R))
Tweeners (25-34)
55t. Louisiana 07 (30 (10%)) (53t-15 (7%)) (Mike Stagg (D) vs. Charles Boustany* (R))
55t. Nebraska 01 (30 (10%)) (not rated-0 (0%)) (Maxine Moul (D) vs. Jeff Fortenberry* (R))
55t. Ohio 02 (30 (10%)) (not rated-0 (0%)) (Victoria Wulsin (D) vs. Jean Schmidt* (R)
Other races that one of the handicappers listed
58t. California 04 (15 (5%)) (53t-15 (7%)) (Charlie Brown (D) vs. John Doolittle* (R))
58t. Idaho 01 (15 (5%)) (53t-15 (7%)) (OPEN: Larry Grant (D) vs. Bill Sali (R))
58t. Illinois 11 (15 (5%)) (53t-15 (7%)) (John Pavich (D) vs. Jerry Weller* (R))
58t. Michigan 08 (15 (5%)) (53t-15 (7%)) (Jim Marcinkowski (D) vs. Mike Rogers* (R))
58t. North Carolina 08 (15 (5%)) (51-19 (9%)) (Larry Kissell (D) vs. Robin Hayes* (R))
58t. New Jersey 05 (15 (5%)) (53t-15 (7%)) (Paul Aronsohn (D) vs. Scott Garrett* (R))
58t. Pennsylvania 04 (15 (5%)) (52-16 (8%)) (Jason Altmire (D) vs. Melissa Hart* (R))
58t. West Virginia 02 (15 (5%)) (53t-15 (7%)) (Mike Callaghan (D) vs. Shelley Capito* (R))
Dem Seats
Tossups (220+)
None
Tweeners (205-219)
None
Lean Dem (130-204)
1. Iowa 03 (196 (66%)) (2-138 (67%)) (Leonard Boswell* (D) vs. Jeff Lamberti (R))
2. Illinois 08 (189 (64%)) (3-133 (65%)) (Melissa Bean* (D) vs. David McSweeney (R))
3. Georgia 12 (179 (61%)) (5-121 (59%)) (John Barrow* (D) vs. Max Burns (R))
4. Georgia 08 (152 (52%)) (4-123 (60%)) (Jim Marshall* (D) vs. Mac Collins (R))
5. Texas 17 (151 (51%)) (6-107 (52%)) (Chet Edwards* (D) vs. Van Taylor (R))
6. Ohio 06 (150 (51%)) (1-174 (85%)) (OPEN: Charlie Wilson (D) vs. Chuck Blasdel (R))
7. West Virginia 01 (149 (51%)) (8-101 (49%)) (Alan Mollohan* (D) vs. Chris Wakim (R))
8. Louisiana 03 (148 (50%)) (7-106 (52%)) (Charlie Melancon* (D) vs. Craig Romero (R))
9. Vermont at Large (147 (50%)) (9-100 (49%)) (OPEN: Peter Welch (D) vs. Rainville/Shepard (R))
Tweeners (115-129)
10. South Carolina 05 (120 (41%)) (10-95 (46%)) (John Spratt* (D) vs. Ralph Norman (R))
Likely Dem (45-114)
11. Colorado 03 (90 (31%)) (11t-60 (29%)) (John Salazar* (D) vs. Scott Tipton (R))
12t. Illinois 17 (75 (25%)) (11t-60 (29%)) (OPEN: Phil Hare (D) vs. Andrea Zinga (R))
12t. Ohio 13 (75 (25%)) (11t-60 (29%)) (OPEN: Betty Sutton (D) vs. Craig Foltin (R))
14. Washington 02 (60 (20%)) (14t-45 (22%)) (Rick Larsen* (D) vs. Doug Roulstone (R))
15t. Kansas 03 (45 (15%)) (14t-45 (22%)) (Dennis Moore* (D) vs. Schwab/Ahner (R))
15t. Utah 02 (45 (15%)) (14t-45 (22%)) (Jim Matheson* (D) vs. LaVar Christensen (R))
Tweeners (30-44)
17t. North Dakota at Large (30 (10%)) (14t-45 (22%)) (Earl Pomeroy* (D) vs. Matt Mechtel (R))
17t. Oregon 05 (30 (10%)) (14t-45 (22%)) (Darlene Hooley* (D) vs. Mike Erickson (R))
17t. South Dakota at Large (30 (10%)) (19-30 (15%)) (Stephanie Herseth* (D) vs. Bruce Whalen (R))
Other races listed by one handicapper
20t. Indiana 07 (15 (5%)) (20t-15 (7%)) (Julia Carson* (D) vs. Eric Dickerson (R))
20t. Louisiana 02 (15 (5%)) (20t-15 (7%)) (Jefferson*/K. Carter/T. Carter/Shepherd (D) vs. Joe Lavigne (R))
20t. Maryland 03 (15 (5%)) (20t-15 (5%)) (OPEN: Sarbanes/Hollinger/Beilenson/Bengur (D) vs. Applebaum/Hoover/White (R))