RT Strategies/Cook Political Report released a new national poll covering the 2008 presidential race (poll specs: Aug 25-27, 2006: 1,028 adults nationwide, 3% MOE;801 registered voters, 3.4% MOE. pdf file).
For the Democratic nomination, Hillary Clinton led the way with 32%, while Gore came in a strong second with 19%, with Edwards (11%) and Kerry (9%) trailing the top two choices.
Giuliani has gained significant steam among the Republicans, now surging to a 12 point lead (32 vs 20) over McCain according to this poll, compared to a 5 point deficit in June (25 vs 29).
Please follow me below the fold for an informal reading and commentary about this poll.
Democratic Party Nomination:
(Click to start kicking ass!)
ARG(8/21) | 1st
Choice | 2nd
Choice | w/o
Gore | Gore's
Cut | June |
Hillary
Clinton
| 32 | 15
| 37 | 5 | 31
|
Gore | 19
| 14 | - | - | 18 |
Edwards | 11 | 14
| 17 | 6 | 11
|
Kerry
| 9
| 11
| 12
| 3
| 14
|
Biden
| 5
| 3
| 6
| 3
| 4
|
Richardson
| 2
| 4
| 3
| 1
| 2
|
Feingold
| 3
| 5
| 5
| 2
| 2
|
Warner
| 2
| 3
| 2
| -
| 3
|
Clark
| 1
| 5
| 2
| 1
| 3
|
Bayh
| 2
| 1
| 2
| -
| 2
|
Vilsack
| 1
| -
| 1
| -
| -
|
Dodd
| 1
| 1
| 1
| -
| 1
|
Unsure
| 11
| 12
| 12
| 1
| 10
|
As we can see, Gore is within a striking distance of Hillary in this poll, only 13 points separate them. Gore could enjoy a significant bump once he declares his interest in running, should he choose to do so, and that could narrow the gap to single digits (6-9%) right away. Therefore, Gore remains strongly viable for the nomination.
~~~~
Republican't Party Nomination
(Click to start kicking some Republican't ass!)
(Name (Aug/Jun)) Giuliani (32%/24), McCain't (20/29), Gingrich (10/6), Frist (8/5), Romney (5/8), Allen (4/3), Pataki (1/4), Huckabee (2/-), Brownback (1/1), Unsure (17%/18)
Gingrich's rise seems plausible, but the 9% drop in McCain's support is a bit steep. My impression is that, Romney should have gained in the past month or so, whereas this poll shows a drop. Allen's prospects have significantly dimmed in my opinion due to his recent Macacan escapades, perhaps sealed shut from the revelations of his hobnobbing with white supremacist groups in the past, but the poll doesn't show him bottoming out yet. Look for the reichwing to start pulling behind Brownback or perhaps even attempt to inject Jeb Bush into the race.
~~~~
Other Questions
- Bush's Job Appoval rating: 39% approve, 55% disapprove (approval breakdown: R(80%), I(32%), D(8)) {can you believe these 80% Republicans that just won't let go of their stellar contribution to the nation?}
- Right/Wrong Direction: right (28%), wrong (64) (wrong track breakdown: R(28%),I(72),D(90) {again, 68% Republicans still believe that the country is headed in the rigt direction, thus rendering this 20% of the nation's population beyond redemption. Note the very high wrong track numbers (72%) among the Independents. The Dems have to drive those voters to favor the Democrats overwhelmingly, to make way for a landslide victory this November).
- Graded favorability (0-100) (0 utterly dislike, 100 head over heels): Bush (43.6), HRC (43.9), Edwards (49.1), McCain't (54.8), Giuliani (59.4), Kerry (44.9) {they didn't poll about Gore here. Why, I ask?}
- Control of Congress pref: Democrats(51%), Republican'ts(40%)
- Party affiliation/leaning: R(29%), D(30), I(36) (with leaners: R(38)/D(39) {confirms a recent trend of new voter registration trending independent. Nevertheless, I think that this poll has a bit too low number for the Dems, which I think currently ranges in 33-36%}
- Gender: Men (48%), Women (52%)
Update [2006-8-31 18:24:40 by NeuvoLiberal]:
Freeper Alert
A Note about the poll below. Here are two snapshots taken (the diary slipped off the diary scroll at aroung 140-150 votes):
Who should be the Democratic Nominee in 2008?
Hillary 6 votes - 7 %
Gore 26 votes - 33 %
Edwards 16 votes - 20 %
Kerry 1 vote - 1 %
Biden 0 votes - 0 %
Richardson 1 vote - 1 %
Feingold 11 votes - 14 %
Warner 6 votes - 7 %
Clark 4 votes - 5 %
Bayh 0 votes - 0 %
Vilsack 0 votes - 0 %
Dodd 0 votes - 0 %
Unsure 0 votes - 0 %
Other 2 votes - 2 %
Ask me AFTER Nov. 7th! 5 votes - 6 %
78 Total Votes
--------------
Hillary 9 votes - 5 %
Gore 54 votes - 32 %
Edwards 30 votes - 17 %
Kerry 3 votes - 1 %
Biden 0 votes - 0 %
Richardson 1 vote - 0 %
Feingold 12 votes - 7 %
Warner 15 votes - 8 %
Clark 27 votes - 16 %
Bayh 0 votes - 0 %
Vilsack 0 votes - 0 %
Dodd 0 votes - 0 %
Unsure 1 vote - 0 %
Other 3 votes - 1 %
Ask me AFTER Nov. 7th! 13 votes - 7 %
168 Total Votes
At the moment as I write this, the poll results stand at:
Who should be the Democratic Nominee in 2008?
Hillary 9 votes - 4 %
Gore 54 votes - 27 %
Edwards 30 votes - 15 %
Kerry 3 votes - 1 %
Biden 0 votes - 0 %
Richardson 1 vote - 0 %
Feingold 12 votes - 6 %
Warner 15 votes - 7 %
Clark 57 votes - 28 %
Bayh 0 votes - 0 %
Vilsack 0 votes - 0 %
Dodd 0 votes - 0 %
Unsure 1 vote - 0 %
Other 3 votes - 1 %
Ask me AFTER Nov. 7th! 13 votes - 6 %
198 Total Votes
Notice something? Only one candidate's vote tally moved between 168 votes and 198 votes. Name that candidate in the comments section below! Now, I quite like that candidate in question, and consider that he'd be a good VP choice for Al Gore, but that's not the point I am addressing here. I like other potential choices for VP as well.
There is a word for this sort of massive massaging of polls, namely Freeping, which is derived from a term of affection given to a favorite reighwing website called Free Republic. It's not a "federal offense", but, it's a pretty undesirable practice, where people send messages on large mailing lists, post alert on blogs, etc, to "attack" a poll and alter the outcome.
There is a fairly easy way to deal with the freeping of online polls: by making a graph of the standings (one curve for each candidate) versus the number of votes cast, and make it available along with the results. Shouldn't be too hard to setup the Daily Kos site backend to handle this, but could cost some image hosting bandwidth for Markos. Definitely worth considering for important polls in the future.