NY-19 leans Republican (2004 vote: Bush/Kerry 53/46) and has been held for 12 years by rubber stamp Sue Kelly. Her transgressions have been amply described at Take-19. For those of a masochistic bent her voting history is summarized.
NY-19 embraces the northern suburbs of NYC extending into rural territory. Can this district swing Dem? Registration has been moving towards Democrats, but more importantly the strong top of the ticket in New York, Iraq and Afghanistan, Bush incompetence, and yes, lots of corruption, will draw Dems to the polls like yellow jackets to picnics. Conversely, these very same issues will induce sleeping sickness in some Republicans.
Listed by no prognosticators in the first or second tier of take-over candidates, the swing of districts like NY-19 nonetheless will make the difference between a bare return to Dem House control and a real governing majority. (Just look at how tough it is now for Repubs to pass anything, anything at all.) Barring a bin Laden capture, the shift in control seems assured, so real power in the House seems to me a goal worth pursuing. Who will be Speaker is now a given; to move beyond to progressive action we need more Democrats. NY-19 and other third tier candidates deserve your attention.
Working against us are time and money. New York's late primary means we do not have our candidate until this coming Tuesday. Then it's eight weeks to showdown, eight weeks to get our Democrat known.
Who are the candidates? Earlier there were six, now down to four. Three have been waging energetic campaigns based upon phone calls, emails, yard signs, and snail mails: Judy Aydelott, John Hall, and Ben Shuldiner. The fourth, Darren Rigger, is notable in his absence from the fray. Though anything is possible when there are so few primary voters, I would not bet on Rigger.
In public forums and on his website, school principal Ben Shuldiner has emphasized education. His campaign appears to have plenty of volunteers, extremely important in a primary. Should we fail to oust Kelly this November, Shuldiner will be an experienced campaigner and surely a contender in 2008.
The NY Times endorsed former Republican Judy Aydelott. Undoubtedly a feather in her cap for regular readers of the Times, the endorsement probably won't be to those who gave up on the former home of Judy Miller. Aydelott leads in contributions, but has little cash on hand according to the August 23rd filing.
Environmental activist
John Hall leads in endorsements, particularly from labor and environmental groups and is a progressive favorite. His fund-raising was well below Aydelott's until the last period; he now has the largest cash on hand.
The important point about all these candidates is that each one of them would be a progressive shift from the Bush sycophancy of our incumbent.
Few of you, dear reader, live in the 19th. This paragraph is for those who do: by the evidence, the many signs of activism well beyond 2004's level, you are already engaged. To you, bravo now, and if you lose on Wednesday, take a deep breath and show your mettle. Plunge in and save us all by giving just as much energy to the winner's very hard two-month battle.
Not a peon of Kelly's district? This is for you! The largest cash-on-hand held by any of our candidates is still one million less than Kelly's. I wrote to every Dem in my town with a history of primary voting, i.e., the choir. I asked them to pitch in and gave them several alternatives. Among them was donating, of course, but this race is not going to be won without help from outside the 19th. Lots of help and Early Money Is Like Yeast. Heard that before? Still true.
Early is Wednesday. I will be back here Wednesday with a winner. Watch for me and, by the way, have your checkbook ready.
Come senators, congressmen, please head the call
Don't stand in the doorway, don't block up the hall
For he that gets hurt will be her that has stalled
The battle outside ragging will soon shake your windows
And rattle your hall
For the times, they are a changing
Bob Dylan
Cross posted at MyDD.