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Brief "diary" - new poll shows Webb closing in

Sorry for the brevity, this is hardly a "diary" entry.  But I'm amazed I've not seen this on Kos yet.  A new VA Senate poll out from Mason-Dixon, one of the most reputable firms out there, is showing Webb within four points of Allen... 46-42 (12% undecided).  Previous Mason-Dixon poll had Allen up by a whopping 16%.  We NEED races like Webb, Ford, etc with our Senate hopes in trouble in NJ.  I wish Webb were in the lead by now after Allen's disastrous couple of weeks (I mean, what the hell does Allen need to do to lose support???); nonetheless, Allen is under 50% and Webb is only back by 4%.  The MOE is 4% and the poll was conducted 9/5 to 9/7. EDIT: By the way, this poll, as of midnight Sunday morning 9/10, is not yet on the Mason-Dixon web site. I got it from the PollingReport's subscription service. Not sure how they got it. Not on RCP or TPM yet.

Originally posted to Pilgrim Paul on Sat Sep 09, 2006 at 08:56 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Good news! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cookiesandmilk, Lew2006

    I put the race first in your tags because I'm following and when all this is over come November, it'll be a way to easily call up the Kos records. Thanks for the update!

    Satan himself had a 33% approval rating even as he was booted out of heaven.

    by Joy Busey on Sat Sep 09, 2006 at 09:04:56 PM PDT

  •  That is super news (0+ / 0-)

    All the voters must already know Allen's name and so any undecided voters have essentially said they are not voting for Allen and might vote for Webb.

    I can't imagine an Allen supporter being coy about who they intend to vote for.

    If I am correct in my analysis, then Webb is almost even or ahead in the polls with 2 months to go...

    The GOP has lots of cash and no scruples and so we cannot ease up in Virginia or any of the races.

    No Sig here. Move Along! Move Along!

    by Lew2006 on Sat Sep 09, 2006 at 09:16:53 PM PDT

    •  The Senate... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      hilltopper, Lew2006

      Lew2006,

      Well, I'm not willing to say Webb is even or ahead yet... it all depends on how those undecideds break.  Historically, they do break to the challenger.  But in Red State VA can we depend on that?  I don't know.  I'll tell you this, though...

      I'm enough of a politics-weenie so that I have a spreadsheet of all of the competitive (and some not-so-competitive) House races, all the Senate races, and all the Gubernatorial races.  The spreadsheet contains the latest polls, poll average (which, strictly speaking, is a statistical no-no... but it is, generally, safe in a simple candidate preference poll), and then uses a general assumption of a breakdown for the undecideds.  The result?  Of all Republican-favored Senate seats, Webb is the second best chance we have of flipping it to a Dem (right now I still have Talent a hair ahead of McCaskill... that's the easiest one the can flip to the Dems... others you may think of... Tester, Casey, Brown and Whitehouse [yes, even, Whitehouse] are already falling into the Dem category).

      Right now I have Dems picking up three seats in the Senate (winning four, losing one).  So, we really need Webb and McCaskill.  Then, of course, to tip the balance, we've either got to find a way to resucitate Menendez or get Carter some momentum.  But this move by Webb is huge.  He's still got his work cut out for him, but this is absolutely winnable.

      sdrawkcab gnihtyreve od snacilbupeR

      by Pilgrim Paul on Sat Sep 09, 2006 at 09:28:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Keep up the good work (0+ / 0-)

        I was trying out the perception is reality ploy suggested in another diary here. haha

        You are entirely correct about the undecided and then with the MOE and I have not even seen if the sample was likely voters or general.

        Thanks again for your efforts.

        No Sig here. Move Along! Move Along!

        by Lew2006 on Sun Sep 10, 2006 at 11:08:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I'd love to see Webb win (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dole4pineapple

    but, more importantly, whether Allen wins or loses his Presidential hopes are over.

  •  Excelent news (0+ / 0-)

    M-D is a great polling firm and is especially good in the south.  The poll verifies the closeness of the race that other, perhaps less accurate, polls have found.  

    Allen has tons of money.  Webb needs it.  I hope all will head over to act Blue and help Webb get his message out.

  •  Mason-Dixon Not That Good (0+ / 0-)

    Rasmussen, SurveyUSA, and Strategic Vision all outperformed Mason-Dixon in the last election. But once you got past the first two, who were the best last time by a discernible margin, all the rest were pretty much a wash (excluding online polls) on the state-by-state basis.

    They actually tend to lean republican, so I don't know why they are so frequently referred to as "best in the business" or "one of the best."

    •  Well, this is the 4th poll to say we have a close (0+ / 0-)

      race on our hands. Allen is probably slightly ahead, but below 50 percent. This race is definitely the magic #6 race. Hopefully the big donors in Virginia and Washington will step up now.

      If your name was George Walker instead of George Walker Bush, your candidacy would be a joke.

      by dole4pineapple on Sat Sep 09, 2006 at 10:02:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Sure, But (0+ / 0-)

        With MD giving it to Allen by 4 I would say the race is likely dead even.

        The last Rasmussen poll, released before the most recent revelations, had Allen up by only 2 pts. Ras has outperformed MD in the last two even year cycles.

  •  Sorry I got here late (0+ / 0-)

    Does the poll give favorables for Allen/Webb? That's the real number that's going to show where the race is at this point.

    Anyone who voted against the patriot act is too good for the Senate

    Feingold for President

    by Goldfish on Thu Sep 14, 2006 at 06:17:34 AM PDT

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