Three months ago, this observer thought a Democratic takeover of the Senate was nearly impossible. Now, the odds are almost fifty-fifty. George Allen's racist remark towards a Jim Webb volunteer and Bob Corker's corruption, specifically the understaffed Chattanooga 911 staff, have tightened those respective races significantly.
More below the flap.
Four Republican incumbents are currently in serious trouble and
Pollster clearly shows the trends.
1. PA-Sen: There have been almost 60 polls taken of this race, and Rick Santorum doesn't lead ONE. When you remove the Zogby Interactive polls, Casey's dominance is still apparent:
Gallup (8/27): Casey 56, Santorum 38
Rasmussen (8/23): Casey 48, Santorum 40
Benenson (D) (8/16): Casey 51, Santorum 37
SV (R) (8/13): Casey 47, Santorum 41
Q-Poll (8/13): Casey 47, Santorum 40
The average lead for Casey is 10.3%, way above any margin of error. Many have concerns this race may tighten, but the hardest part for Santorum is getting his numbers to 45%, and we all know even that number won't win it for him. Santorum is still on the endangered species list and the top Democratic chance for a pickup.
2. MT-Sen: Bowers on MyDD still has this race as a tossup, but the latest premium Rasmussen poll will show Tester with a nine-point lead over Burns (52-43). Burns' awful debate showing in a packed house in tiny Hamilton, Montana contributed to the Tester bounce. It got so bad for old Conrad that members of the audience called him a psycho.
Last 5 polls:
Rasmussen (9/14): Tester 52, Burns 43
Gallup (8/27): Tester 48, Burns 45
Rasmussen (8/8): Tester 47, Burns 47
Rasmussen (7/6): Tester 50, Burns 43
Lake Research (6/26): Tester 43, Burns 42
Tester will be releasing a new "Best of Conrad" video on Youtube soon, and we all know it'll be a hit. This is Democratic pickup #2.
3. OH-Sen: As we all know, the Republican Party of Ohio is in an absolute mess. Governor Bob Taft is convicted, Ken Blackwell is getting smashed in the governor's race by Ted Strickland, and Mike DeWine put himself between a rock and a hard place by joining the Gang of 14. Sherrod Brown, who initially took flack for being the beneficiary of Chuck Schumer's shenanigans, has a small lead over DeWine and has built his credibility as a fighter for labor. DeWine has not led this race at any point since June.
Last 5 polls:
Gallup (8/27): Brown 46, DeWine 40
Rasmussen (8/22): Brown 45, DeWine 42
SurveyUSA (8/7): Brown 49, DeWine 41
Rasmussen (7/26): Brown 44, DeWine 42
Columbus Dispatch (7/20): Brown 45, DeWine 37
The most accurate poll of the five listed here IMO is the Columbus Dispatch. It is the gold standard in the Buckeye State just like the Field Poll of California. I rated this race slightly ahead of Rhode Island because of Chafee's win in the Republican primary, where we could see a temporary bounce against us.
4. RI-Sen: Chafee's win means we'll have to fight hard for the seat. Sheldon Whitehouse would have cruised without any need for Chuck Schumer's cash if Stephen Laffey won, but we'll have to do it the hard way. Even though it'll be the more moderate Chafee, Whitehouse still holds a slim lead and a COH advantage.
Last 5 polls:
Rasmussen (8/23): Whitehouse 44, Chafee 42
Fleming (8/21): Chafee 43, Whitehouse 42
Rasmussen (8/3): Whitehouse 44, Chafee 38
Rasmussen (7/11): Whitehouse 46, Chafee 41
Brown U (6/26): Whitehouse 38, Chafee 37
The battle here will come down to how many independents Whitehouse can lure into his column. Despite Rhody's Democratic bend, Chafee is popular with indies and some Dems and Whitehouse will need at least 40% of the indies to win the seat. IMO, we'll win it because it's a year that favors us and RI is very Democratic. But it will be close.
Those four look like gains. Now to the tossups, in order of probability:
5. MO-Sen: Claire McCaskill is facing machine politician Jim Talent, and although she doesn't have Talent's cash, she's charitable to Rams fans and won't have to deal with the voter ID obstacle. The latter point is very significant as Talent probably would have gained a minimum of three points alone due to disenfranchisement of urban voters in STL and KC. The Missouri courts probably increased Claire's chances of victory by at least 30%. From her interviews on Hardball, you can tell Claire has the fire in her belly necessary to take the seat.
Last 5 polls:
Rasmussen (9/13): McCaskill 45, Talent 42
Research 2000 (8/31): McCaskill 47, Talent 46
Gallup (8/27): Talent 50, McCaskill 44
Rasmussen (8/15): Talent 46, McCaskill 44
SurveyUSA (8/14): McCaskill 47, Talent 46
It looks like the tide may be turning in Claire's favor, but I'll need a couple of polls with her up 5+ before I put this in the leans Dem category. Hopefully residents of the Show-Me State won't have to stay up all night for this one.
6. TN-Sen: After the Republican primary, it looked like Bob Corker had moderate Democrat Harold Ford Jr. dominated. But Corker's scandals and Ford's hard-hitting, sharp as a tack campaign have turned this from a likely Republican hold into a pure tossup. This is still the South, and although Ford's got the momentum, he'll need a super strong ground game in his hometown of Memphis to seal the deal.
Last 5 polls:
SurveyUSA (9/11): Ford 48, Corker 45
Rasmussen (9/5): Corker 45, Ford 44
Benenson (D) (8/15): Ford 44, Corker 42
Rasmussen (8/10): Corker 48, Ford 42
Mason-Dixon (7/24): Corker 49, Ford 36
Corker's big primary bounce completely evaporated as Ford has proven to be a superior campaigner. The only question is whether many in Tennessee will get into the booth and actually vote an African-American into office. This diarist hopes so.
There are three races which are competitive, but still lean towards the Republican incumbent. They are listed in order of probability below:
7. VA-Sen: Due to George Allen's foot in mouth disease, this race has turned from an Allen slam-dunk into a pitched battle. Jim Webb got no momentum from his narrow primary win over Harris Miller, but Allen provided all the momentum with Macacagate. Now Webb needs to seal the deal. It is rumored that Webb raised over 2 million in the third quarter, and Schumer is sending some dough Jim's way. A row over Webb's role in the Reagan administration may bring this race into the tossup column, as the Allen campaign seems to be mishandling this issue too.
Last 5 polls:
SurveyUSA (9/12): Allen 48, Webb 45
Mason-Dixon (9/7): Allen 46, Webb 42
SurveyUSA (8/20): Allen 48, Webb 45
Rasmussen (8/16): Allen 47, Webb 42
Mason-Dixon (7/27): Allen 48, Webb 32
Note that the 7/27 poll was before "macaca" became part of the everyday vernacular. A powerful ad from Vote Vets may be the ace up Webb's sleeve. Despite the trend toward Webb, I need to see a non-Zogby Interactive poll with Webb in front before I move it to tossup.
8. AZ-Sen: Jim Pederson needs to make more headway. He needs to show some backbone (I'm a Democrat, goddamnit, and I'm not gonna take it anymore!). He's got an uber-popular female Governor and he still can't turn this one into a tossup against mediocre Jon Kyl (and Kyl's NOT one of America's ten best senators). The race has tightened some, but those are just Democrats coming back home to Pederson after some polls with enormous undecided numbers. Pederson must win some independents and run a strong bilingual campaign to win here.
Last 5 polls:
Harstad (9/6): Kyl 47, Pederson 41
ASU (8/29): Kyl 46, Pederson 36
Rasmussen (8/24): Kyl 52, Pederson 35
Behavior Research (7/21): Kyl 45, Pederson 27
Rasmussen (7/18): Kyl 53, Pederson 34
9. NV-Sen: I read that Jack Carter had to go to the hospital for colitis. That's a shame, because he was really making headway in parts of that state where the word "Democrat" is like "pedophile". I wrote a diary here calling Nevada a sleeper race, and it's still in play, but PLEASE GET WELL Jack, we love ya! I promised Greg at Carter for Nevada a spreadsheet of Ensign's votes, and through all my schoolwork, I should have it ready in a week. Hopefully it isn't too late.
Last 2 relevant polls:
Mason-Dixon (8/12): Ensign 54, Carter 33
Rasmussen (7/31): Ensign 46, Carter 39
Last but not least, the competitive Democratic seats, and from what I've seen, there are four:
1. NJ-Sen: If Jersey is the Republicans' best chance to gain a seat this November, chances are they aren't winning a single seat off the Democrats. I don't buy the polls which show Kean in front, because Jersey polls constantly understate the Democratic advantage there. Menendez isn't the strongest or most charismatic campaigner, but all he needs to do is remind the politically apathetic Jersey electorate in the next seven weeks that Tom Kean Sr. isn't running against him for Senate.
Last 5 polls:
SV (R) (9/10): Kean 44, Menendez 40
Rasmussen (8/28): Kean 44, Menendez 39
FDU (8/27): Kean 43, Menendez 39
SV (R) (8/13): Menendez 42, Kean 40
Rasmussen (7/25): Menendez 44, Kean 38
Seriously, Menendez isn't campaigning as well as I'd like if it's a Democratic year in the Northeast and he can't break 46% in any poll. He needs to frame Kean as a child not ready for the Senate right now.
Below are the likely Dem holds:
2. MD-Sen: Because Cardin and Mfume ran a clean, amicable primary, it doesn't look good for Michael Steele. The Democratic base in Maryland was intensely energized, as over 450,000 cast a ballot for one of the two frontrunners, and both beat Steele. Steele might peel off a few African-American votes but as long as Mfume and Cardin remain on friendly terms, Cardin's got a clear edge. We'll need to see a post-primary Cardin-Steele poll to verify my belief that Cardin's got a commanding edge before I move the race completely out of the picture.
Last 5 polls:
Gonzales Research (8/25): Cardin 44, Steele 39
Rasmussen (8/9): Cardin 47, Steele 42
Public Opinion (8/2): Cardin 43, Steele 35
Rasmussen (7/19): Cardin 47, Steele 41
Potomac Inc (7/10): Cardin 47, Steele 36
3. MN-Sen: Hotline notes that "Labor Day has come and gone and we've yet to see one negative TV ad air against Klobuchar." In a lean-Democratic state with the winds blowing in the Republicans' faces, Mark Kennedy doesn't seem to have the fire in the belly. Amy Klobuchar has not trailed in any poll between the two, and Kennedy will need a minor miracle to close the gap.
Last 5 polls:
Gallup (8/27): Klobuchar 50, Kennedy 40
Rasmussen (8/1): Klobuchar 50, Kennedy 38
SurveyUSA (7/23): Klobuchar 47, Kennedy 42
Bennett, Petts (7/20): Klobuchar 50, Kennedy 34
Star Tribune (7/11): Klobuchar 50, Kennedy 31
Now I don't believe Amy's got a 16-19 point lead, but she's definitely leading well above the margin of error, and it could be anywhere between 7-12 points.
4. WA-Sen: This one is virtually over. Talk of Maria Cantwell's demise has been put off (at least for now) as the issue over Mike McGavick's DWI in 1993 has blown up in his face. Initially McGavick said he was only tipsy driving home from a party, but the police report confirmed this lie when they stated he was tested at twice the legal limit. Cantwell, although still not a favorite with some Washington Democrats, is gaining complete command in Mariners country.
Last 5 polls:
Rasmussen (9/6): Cantwell 52, McGavick 35
SurveyUSA (8/29): Cantwell 53, McGavick 36
SurveyUSA (8/27): Cantwell 56, McGavick 39
SV (R) (8/27): Cantwell 48, McGavick 43
Rasmussen (8/15): Cantwell 46, McGavick 40
Although Maria's got a lobbyist issue to deal with, I do not believe this will endanger her considering McGavick's misstep was far more publicized and embarrassing.
This is also an open thread on any Senate race anyone wants to comment about.