It is 52 days until the 2006 election for Governor will be over in Florida. Both Jim Davis, the Democrat, and Charlie Crist, the Republican have made their first major decision as the nominees. On Wednesday, Crist named Jeff Kottkamp as his LG running mate. On Thursday, Davis made history by naming Daryl Jones, the first African American to be nominated for LG in Florida.
Between now and November 7th, these two campaigns are likely to spend close to $50 million to elect their candidate as Governor of the nations 4th largest state. Untold more millions will be spent by 527 groups either for or against the candidates. It is safe to say that campaign spending will top out at considerably more than $1 million per day.
How is it likely to play out, and why should you care?
More below the fold...
The gubernatorial election in Florida in 2006 has a distinct bearing on the 2008 Presidential election. Florida's next governor will appoint the Chief Election Officer. We all know how pivotal that position was in 2000. The candidate whose party holds the governorship has their candidates name first on the ballot. Also, the visibility of the Governor will be an aid to whichever party wins in 2008.
Charlie Crist has been positioning himself for the general election for much of his primary campaign. He was harshly criticized by his primary opponent, Tom Gallagher, as being not a "true" conservative. Gallalgher repeatedly charged Crist with backing "liberal" policies. Crist won by a 30 point margin. But it is likely that the 30% of R's that voted for his opponent in the primary would not support Crist in the general. Crist responded to that reality by shoring up his base. Crist named Jeff Kottkamp, a little known state representative from SW Florida for his LG pick. Kottkamp, another white male attorney is considered to be a "safe" pick and reliably conservative. SW Florida is a Republican dominated area of the state. Crist's choice here is widely viewed as an attempt to reach out to the conservative who did not support him in the primary. This was a defensive pick, not designed to cut into any Dem voter base segment.
Jim Davis had his own problems in the Dem primary which he won by a much narrower margin than Crist. Davis was repeatedly criticized for a 16 year old vote in his second term in the state legislature. Davis voted against payment of a claims bill sought for Pitts and Lee. The pair of African Americans had been wrongly convicted of killing two service station attendants in the Florida Panhandle. Governor Rueben Askew (D-Pensacola) pardoned them. The vote was revived by Big Sugar ads calling Davis' record on Civil Rights "shameful". Rod Smith, Davis' primary opponent, to his credit, condemned Big Sugar for their use of the "shameful" word. Nonetheless, Smith continued to criticize Davis for the vote. This tactic appeared to have hurt Davis among African Americans, particularly in Dem stronghold South East Florida.
Davis apologized to Pitts and Lee earlier this week. The two men accepted Davis' apology and endorsed his campaign. This was thought in some quarters to give Davis some breathing room in his LG selection. Davis could also be said to be picking defensively in his choice of former state senator and gubernatorial hopeful Daryl Jones of Miami. Jones, the first African American to be named to a Florida gubernatorial ticket, is a former fighter pilot and a Colonel in the Air Force Reserve. Jones was nominated to be Secretary of the Air Force by President Clinton. The Senate refused to confirm Jones after allegations were made about hs flying record and flying skills. Jones brushed off the charges as politically motivated, reminding reporters that this was Monica Lewisnky season in DC.
The choice of Daryl Jones for the Dem ticket is taken as a sign that Davis (a) wants to energize the African America Dem base and (b) to signal his intention to energize South East Florida Dems for the general. The pick was defensive for the reasons that Davis did not pick an Hispanic to go after the R's for Hispanic voters. However, Jones brings three things political to the Dem ticket. First, he will energize the African American vote for the Dems. Second, he is highly qualified to be Governor and will help Davis in his ability to pick apart Crists platform. Third, he could also help the Dem ticket in North West Florida, a region that votes heavily R. Jones will appeal to a number of military voters there because of his military service, who would otherwise vote R.
The general election campaign has now begun in earnest. Crist began airing TV spots this week portraying him as a populist. Davis, waiting until the final day to announce his LG pick, ended the week on a two day statewide tour of Florida with his running mate. It is generally considered that Davis won this week's news cycle with his historic LG pick. Even term limited Gov. Jeb Bush had kind things to say about Daryl Jones.
That brings us up to date. But how is the general election going to play out? Both Davis and Crist hail from the critical Tampa Bay area of the state. The winner of this area has won the last several general elections. This swing area is the largest media market in the state, meaning it is going to be very expensive for the dueling campaigns in this election. Both candidates are cognizant of the importance of the Tama Bay area. So lets take a look at the other areas of the state.
North West Florida is a Dem region by voter registration. However, these Dems are conservative and tend to vote predominantly R in statewide and presidential elections. This area should be won handily by Crist, but Jones on the Dem ticket should gather up a number of military votes in this area. It remains to be seen if this will make any significant difference here.
North East Florida has also gone R in the last couple of election cycles. However, the Dems are expected to win in Leon county which includes Tallahassee. Alachua County, in the Jacksonville media market, is another reliable Dem County. It is home to the University of Florida in Gainesville and is the home of Rod Smith. Jacksonville and Duval County are up for grabs in this election. Duval is maybe winnable by the Dems if the large African American population in Jacksonville is motivated to get to the polls. Otherwise this area of the state goes to Crist.
South West Florida is a reliably Republican area of the state. The choice of Kottkamp, who hails from this area of the state, should help to energize this area for the R's. Katherine Harris, of 2000 election infamy, is at the top of the R ticket this cycle. She is running far behind incumbent Dem Senator Bill Nelson. With Harris given virtually no shot to unseat Harris and her high unfavorables, there is worry in the R camp that she will both energize Dems to vote against her and demoralize R's in their bid to capture the only statewide seat still held by a Dem.
South East Florida is THE Dem stronghold in Florida. In the 2002 election, the Dem candidate, Bill McBride was seen to have largely ignored this area until very late in his race against incumbent Jeb Bush. The low turn out in this vote rich area badly hurt McBride. This time the Dems seem determined not to make the same mistake. The choice of Jones for LG signals that. Davis is saying that this area is starting to feel like "home" and promises to campaign there vigorously.
That brings us to Central Florida, the critical swing area of the state. This area, particularly the I-4 corridor between St. Petersburg and Orlando is considered THE area that will determine the outcome in this state. In 2000, Al Gore carried this area. In 2004, George W Bush won this are in handily winning Florida. To add to the interest this cycle, both candidates hail from this area. Crist, from St. Petersburg, is highly popular, even among some Dems, in Pinellas County. Davis, from Tampa, has won 12 straight elections in Hillsborough County. Polk, Pasco, Manatee and Sarasota counties are reliable R counties, although Nelson carried some of these counties in 2000. Orlando and the Space Coast are on Florida's East Coast are another swing area in the Central Florida region.
Now that we have looked at the various areas of the state, it is time to prognosticate on the outcome:
North West Florida goes handily to Crist. His biggest worry in this area is voter turnout and that Jones will snag some of the military vote here.
North East Florida is up for grabs. Davis will win Leon and Alachua counties, but Duval County is the deciding county in this area. If the African American population in Jacksonville is energized enough by Jones, this county goes to Davis. Otherwise it goes to Crist.
South West Florida goes to Crist heavily. The only concern here for Crist is turnout.
South East Florida will go to Davis. The only question is how many votes he will harvest from this vote rich area. If the African Americans do not turn out in large numbers and if Crist can energize the Cuban voters, Crist can cut into the margin for Davis here. Crist is not as popular among Cubans as Jeb Bush, but he will be helped by Cuban American US Senator Mel Martinez. If Crist carries Miami-Dade and keeps the margin for Davis manageable in the other counties, that would be very significant in a Crist victory. However, Davis is expected to campaign hard for the Dem vote in this area and expects better turn out than in 2002 with Jones on the ticket. If this happens, it will be critical to a Davis victory.
Central Florida is still the key area in 2006. Both candidates will fight it out tooth and nail for this area. The election will probably be decided right in the Tampa Bay area. Crist needs a win here by several points to win. Davis needs only to get a draw here.
So, here we go. Drum roll, please. North West Florida goes to Crist, but not by as big a margin as previous elections. South West Florida goes heavily to Crist. South East Florida goes heavily to Davis. Davis even wins Miami-Dade, the home county of Jones. Davis gets his draw in the I-4 corridor and wins the election. If Crist wins North East Florida, it just cuts into the overall margin for Davis.
There you have it. I'm predicting a Dem victory in November. I'll be back from time to time with updates on the outlook for this race. And will revisit my prediction after the election.
Stay tuned.