GOP pollster Rasmussen has a new
assessment of the likely outcome of the Senate races in November. For the first time, he is forecasting that there is a reasonable chance that the Democrats will make the 6 seats needed to take control
Here's the gist:
The battle for control of the U.S. Senate is getting closer--much closer. Little more than a week ago, our Balance of Power summary showed the Republicans leading 50-45 with five states in the Toss-Up category. Today, Rasmussen Reports is changing three races from "Toss-Up" to "Leans Democrat." As a result, Rasmussen Reports now rates 49 seats as Republican or Leans Republican while 48 seats are rated as Democrat or Leans Democrat (see State-by-State Summary). There are now just three states in the Toss-Up category--Tennessee, New Jersey, and Missouri.
Assuming we hold NJ, that puts the Senate at 49-49, with two toss-ups. This ignores, by the way, the Lean Republican state of Virginia.
The states in question:
Today's changes all involve Republican incumbents who have been struggling all year. In Montana, Senator Conrad Burns (R) has fallen behind Jon Tester (D). Rhode Island Senator Lincoln Chafee (R) survived his primary but starts the General Election as a decided underdog. Sherrod Brown (D) is enjoying a growing lead over Ohio Senator Mike DeWine (R).
The previous "Lean D" states are Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Maryland, and Michigan. Considering the fading hopes of the GOP in most of those, "leans" is actually rather generous to the Republicans.
Anyway, this can be looked at as a signpost: When a pollster like Rasmussen, who tends to skew rather Republican (his Bush-approval ratings, for example, tend to be ~5 points higher than most others) sees the Senate as having a real chance of flipping, I think that's a good sign. 51 seats is a real possibility, with a chance at a 52nd if Jim Webb can continue beating up on Felix.
-dms