Several seemingly unconnected news developments have come together to form a coherent picture of a Bush foreign policy that is flying apart faster than a double-wide in an F5 tornado.
1. Pakistan agrees to buy F-16 fighter aircraft from the United States
2. Pakistan makes peace with the Taliban in Waziristan and frees al Qaeda prisoners while at the same time stepping up pressure on separatist rebels in Baluchistan.
3. Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf and Indian Prime Minsuter Manmohan Singh meet in Havana at the Non-Aligned Movement conference and hold meetings with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. India and Pakistan sign an agreement to cooperate to fight terrorism. but the real agenda is development of a gas pipeline.
What do these events have in common?
It's all about natural gas -- bringing it from where it is to where it is needed. It's about the dream of creating a massive grid of pipelines carrying natural gas from fields in Russia, Turkmenistan and elsewhere in Central Asia to India, Pakistan, Korea and China -- forming Pipelineistan and how Bush's obsession with Iran is cutting the U.S. out of the deal.
Deora said "we had also discussed the idea of a potential gas grid from North and Central Asia to Far East region. China, Korea, Japan and India are expected to drive gas demand in the future whereas North and Central Asia have abundant reserves of gas, making them natural partners.
"The gas grid envisages pipelines traversing through gas producing countries like Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Iran etc to gas consumers like China, India, Korea, Japan, Thailand, Pakistan, Turkey etc."
"The projected benefits of such a gas grid are enormous both in monetary terms as well as in terms of contribution to energy security. This concept, if feasible, can be truly termed as an energy bridge to prosperity. We are also looking at extending the proposed Turkmenistan-Afghanistan- Pakistan pipeline to India."
The first phase of Pipelineistan is development of a long-stalled project to build a $7 billion pipeline to bring liquified natural gas from fields in southern Iran across Pakistan to India.
London, Sept. 17 (PTI): India said it is optimistic about the ambitious seven billion dollar Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline project taking a concrete shape.
The three countries already had secretary-level and ministerial-level meetings in this connection, Union Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas Murli Deora said here.
"We have been informed that a final decision on the issue would be taken by the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the Majlis.
"We are sure Iran will honour their agreement to provide five million tonnes of liquefied natural gas to India from 2009-10 for 25 years," Deora told reporters here at the conclusion of his visit to Vienna and the UK.
This pipeline has been vigorously opposed by the Bush Administration, which is intent on preventing Iran from opening a vast new market for its huge gas reserves.
The recent U.S. agreement to provide India with nuclear power technology is connected to this -- an attempt to dissuade India from pursuing the pipeline deal. At the time it seemed like the United States was trading nuclear technology for a trade deal on mangoes. But what was really at stake was squeezing Iran.
Well, that's all out the fucking window now.
TEHRAN (Fars News Agency)- Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh stressed his country's strong support for full restoration of Iran's nuclear rights within the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad met with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on the sidelines of the 14th summit of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) in the Cuban capital city of Havana on Saturday.
During the meeting, Ahmadinejad stressed the need for the further development of mutual ties between Tehran and New Delhi and pointed out that Iran believes there resides no impediment in the way of expanding bilateral ties with India.
The pipeline is moving forward whether Bush likes it or not. And impediments to the deal are being dealt with -- chief among them the threat of sabotage on the pipeline by separatist rebels in the southwest Pakistani province of Baluchistan.
Baluchistan is a lot like Biafra in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria -- vast oil and gas wealth tapped by the government with little of the benefits accruing to the impoverished people who live there. In Baluchistan, as in Biafra decades ago, this has led to resentment and a potential civil war.
So far, Musharraf has been unwilling to share the wealth with Baloch tribesmen. His preference, it seems, is to use the army to crush Baloch opposition just as Biafra was crushed more than 35 years ago.
Hence, his peace treaty with the Taliban in the out-of-control province of North Waziristan that frees 80,000 Pakistani troops there and mollifies elements within the Pakistan army that were not happy about the Waziristan campaign.
AUSTRALIA'S Foreign Minister Alexander Downer expressed concern today that there is "some sympathy" within Pakistani security forces for Afghanistan's Taliban rebels.
Mr Downer said Taliban fighters were moving back and forth across the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
"They're finding refuge in Pakistan," he said at a news conference alongside Canadian Foreign Minister Peter MacKay in Halifax in eastern Canada.
"There's no doubt there are people in Pakistan who support the Taliban, and, you know, we have some concerns that in the Pakistani security forces, there is some, what you might politely describe as, some sympathy for the Taliban," Mr Downer said.
So, why on earth would Pakistan want to help India tap a new source of energy?
Two things -- Pakistan gets $700 million a year in "transit fees" for the gas that moves from Iran to India and Pakistan gets some of the gas to fuel the economy of one of the fastest growing nations in Asia.
But the pipeline is no good if Baloch rebels keep blowing it up. So Pakistan needs to free troops to put them down and India signs on to an anti-terrorism agreement because it needs the pipeline too.
And there's Bush -- trying to stop all of this and looking weak in the process.
Not only have India, Pakistan and Iran told Bush collectively to fuck off -- they did it in Havana, with Castro and Hugo Chavez looking on. The only way they could have rubbed Bush's nose in it any more is if they invited Kim Jong Il to the party.
And why would India go along with this?
One commentator suggests India is hedging its bet that Bush will not be able to follow through on the nuclear deal:
India believes that the agreements concluded with Bush, including the agreement to supply nuclear power technology to offset the gas lost by aligning with the US, are headed for the trash bin when Democrats are strengthened in congress. So, why wait for the almost inevitable, and give up the gas and the nuclear technology? That would be incredible. Why not do something now to tilt the situation through 'fait d'accompli.'
Which brings us to the F-16s.
NEW YORK: Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri said that Pakistan would purchase 5 billion dollars worth of F-16 fighter jets and defense equipments from the US to meet our defense requirements and would not back out on matters of national interest on the say of anyone.
Briefing news men at the media center here Foreign Minister said that we are quiet optimistic that this time we would get the F-16s to meet our defense needs and that history would not repeat itself.
The F-16 is not the most advanced U.S. fighter but it is one of the best -- a workhorse used by Israel in the famous 1981 raid on Iraq's Osirik nuclear reactor and most recently in the U.S. strike that killed Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.
Bush has greased the skids for this deal by "discounting" the planes and by setting up a phony system to make sure F-16 technology is not passed to China and that Pakistan cannot use the planes to deliver nuclear weapons.
This has set off a firestorm in Pakistan.
"All these feelings for General Musharraf flow from the strategy that the war on terror is being won and only the Republicans can win this war as compared to Democrats no matter how strong the negative feelings among Americans against the war in Iraq or how damaging its consequences in the November elections," it said.
To counter this Republican strategy, the Democrats and their mouthpieces in the media, are pounding hard on Musharraf who now appears to be acquiring the status of a "political football" for electioneering purposes.
Democratic Party Chairman Howard Dean went on a "rampage" against Musharraf attacking the Pakistan President's deal with tribal in Waziristan.
Making the F-16 deal can be seen as an attempt by Bush to reassert influence over Pakistan. But it doesn't seem to be working.