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Lots of polls to report.

CONNECTICUT (Governor, Senate)

Rasmussen Senate | governor. 9/13-14. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (8/21 results)


Lieberman (CfL) 45 (45)
Lamont (D) 43 (43)
Schlesinger (R) 5 (6)


Rell (R) 60 (61)
DeStefano (D) 32 (31)

OHIO (Governor)

Quinnipiac Univ. 9/11-17. Likely voters. MoE 3.3% (No trend lines)

Blackwell (R) 34
Strickland (D) 55

TEXAS (Governor)

SurveyUSA. 9/16-18. Likely voters. MoE 4.3 (6/23-25 results)

Perry (R) 35 (35)
Bell (D) 23 (20)
Strayhorn (I) 15 (19)
Friedman (I) 23 (21)
Warner (L) 2


SurveyUSA. 9/15-17. Likely voters. MoE 3.9 (No trend lines)

Bachmann (R) 50
Wetterling (D) 41


SurveyUSA. 9/15-17. Likely voters. MoE 4.6% (8/12-14 results)

Salazar (D) 52 (53)
Tipton (R) 41 (42)

NEW HAMPSHIRE (Governor, NH-01, NH-02)

Research 2000. 9/13-14. Likely voters. MoE 6% (Too big) (No trend lines)

Governor MoE 4%

Lynch (D) 61
Coburn (R) 24


Bradley (R) 56
Shea-Porter (D) 31


Bass (R) 55
Hodes (D) 30


SurveyUSA. 9/15-17. Likely voters. MoE 4.1% (No trend lines)

Hayworth (R) 52
Mitchell (D) 40

RHODE ISLAND (Governor, Senate)

Brown University. 9/16-18. Likely voters. MoE 4% (6/24-26 results)


Carcieri (R) 50 (44)
Fogarty (D) 38 (39)


Chafee (R) 39 (37)
Whitehouse (D) 40 (38)

MICHIGAN (Governor)

SurveyUSA. 9/15-17. Likely voters. MoE 3.7% (8/19-21 results)

Granholm (D) 47 (47)
DeVos (R) 47 (47)

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:22 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  How is Bass doing BETTER than in 2004? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I distrust the NH poll.

    I am also skeptical that Carcieri is 12 points up on Fogarty, given the other polling on the race.

    I reject your reality and substitute my own!

    by Arjun Jaikumar on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:08:12 AM PDT

    •  Hodes is at *30*? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      keefer55, brownsox

      I distrust the CT poll.  How did it get so close so fast?

      What is wanted is not the will to believe, but the will to find out, which is the exact opposite. -- Bertrand Russell

      by RequestedUsername on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:09:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Research 2000 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      this is the same outfit that polled the Nevada Senate race last week where Carter was 21 points behind Ensign. I thought that poll way too negative.

      After seeing the New Hampshire numbers I don't trust this poll at all. It seems to extremely favor incumbents. The only poll results by Research 2000 that showed Nevadan candidates competitive were in open races.

      •  Have you ever phone-polled? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jedinecny, sccs

        I have, just today, for move on.

        And here's what happened.

        The script says (roughly), "Hi, my name is D____ and I'm a volunteer calling to ask a quick question about the Congressional election."  Usually they hang up or swear right there.  If they're dumbstruck you can get in the part about "Are you planning to vote for Dum Shat the Republican or Dip Stick the Democrat or are you Undecided.  If they listen through any of this, they say something nasty and hang up.

        I made 40 calls.  I got one actual answer.  In a Washington congressional district, one woman is going to vote Republican.  2 couples said they had voted already by absentee ballot and wouldn't tell me the result.  I got about 15 answering machines, including one that said, "If you're a telemarketer or a politican, GO To Hell."  The politest answer I got from the remaining 22 people was to be hung up on.

        This was a shock.  I've done phone work in CT, and the people I called of either party, were, for the most part, polite at least.

        And so I ask you:  "How can you believe any poll at all, when so few people will answer them?"

        Resisting the Conservation of Joementum

        by LIsoundview on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 07:32:30 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Ugh (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    That MN-06 poll is disappointing.

    •  The district is very conservative (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Still, I agree with you that the poll is disappointing.  On the other hand, Mrs. Wetterling is probably the best candidate we will have in some time for that CD.

      Today, the Court purports to be the dispassionate oracle of the law. - Justice Blackmun

      by jim bow on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:12:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  They are spinning it like mad (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Here's the message on the SurveyUSA poll that was released yesterday, showing Bachmann ahead of Patty 50% to 41%.  We need everyone to understand that this is NOT a reliable poll.  The establishment pollster have always taken issue with auto-dialed polls like this one for a couple reasons:"

        "The only polling that is reliable in this race is the internal polling in this race done by our campaign and the DCCC.  This polling shows that it is an extremely close race leaning towards Patty by 2-3%.  This is reliable polling done by Mark Mellman, possibly the most respected public opinion researchers in the nation."

        Now, I happen to know that their polling is NOT showing Patty at +2-3%, but they can spin it anyway they want. She should be pounding the crap out of Bachmann, but they spent their summer in the field doing parades, which is cool, but they did NOT define Michelle as a evangelical zealot, which might lose them the race. Had a talk with George Lakoff about that last night at dinner when he spoke at my school.

        •  You know their internal polling? (0+ / 0-)

          No offense, but how do you know what their internal polling is?  If you're on staff with the campaign, you'd surely know, but you wouldn't be disputing your own campaign on Kos.  I hope the Wetterling campaign isn't that loose with their numbers that random Kossacks are being given inside information.  I don't even tell my boyfriend our internal numbers.

        •  Actually (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          I have seen their internals and the DO show Wetterling up between 2 and 3 points.

    •  I refuse to believe that poll (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      There is no way this woman is ahead that far. She is truly a religious zealot and I can't believe MN would ever elect someone like that.

      "You hear that, Mr. Anderson? That is the sound of inevitability." The Matrix, 1999

      by Halffasthero on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:41:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yes, that looks very bad (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Bachmann is a complete flake and will be an embarassment to the district and the state if she wins. I can't understand why the Wetterling campaign doesn't hit Bachmann's abundant negative qualities. Or maybe they don't care in the 6th? Maybe they have to learn the hard way.

    •  Well, the good news is... (0+ / 0-)

      ...that the only reason Michele is doing so well is because she's keeping her mouth shut.

      Think she can keep it up through an entire term? Because I think that by the time November 2008 rolls around, she will have said so much dumb shit that airing a 'Best Of' tape will be enough to bury her, even in a conservative district.

      "Sometimes patriotism means you take it up the ass, apparently." -- Phillip, Goats

      by CarrieICL on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:58:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Don't believe (0+ / 0-)

      MN. The others make some sense. This is an open seat and should be close to the partisan registration percentages at this stage.

      This is an automated dial poll. All methodologies have their weaknesses, and the primary one for these kinds of polls is they push weak responses very hard. So expect a lot of Bachmann's support is very soft.

      Other polls in this race (internal, partisan ones) have it much closer. Very much in play.

    •  MN-06 (0+ / 0-)

      This isn't great news, but
      (A) This is a conservative district, and the candidates were mentioned along with their party labels. Hopefully Wetterling can use some of her Emily's List money to expose Bachmann
      (B) I don't think there is any way that the Independecne Party candidate will get 5%, and I would suspect most of those votes to stay home or go to Wetterling.

      Hopefully this shows the Wetterling campaign that they need to take the offensive in defining Bachmann in the coming weeks.

  •  Granholm Needs Our Help (8+ / 0-)

    Send her some love - link to follow.

    Fear leads to anger. Anger leads to hate. Hate leads to suffering. -8.75 / -6.10

    by Alegre on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:09:48 AM PDT

  •  How reliable is the CT poll? (0+ / 0-)

    Now, hey, I LOVE the result - looks like somebody drank up all of Joementum's "cuppa Joe" but is it real?

    I've seen other polls with a wider spread, but perhaps  that was before some of Lieberman's antics.

    Never try to teach a pig to sing. It wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    by countrycat on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:10:07 AM PDT

    •  Realy want Lieberman CRUSHED (5+ / 0-)

      and hope and execpt Lamont's increase is a result of his solidifying his post-primary election organization and upping his ground game.

      That turncoat ad was pretty freakin' excellent, too.

      "Think. It ain't illegal yet." - George Clinton

      by jbeach on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:12:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  And the "where was Joe" stuff had to hurt too... (6+ / 0-)

        The guy wins his seat by criticizing the sitting senator for not showing up to vote and then we find out that Lieberman's record is WORSE.

        So much for "integrity."

        And now the waffling on Iraq.  Why is it taking him so long before coming up with a coherent message?  Could it be he's using a "focus group" to test it?  Again, so much for integrity, etc.

        Never try to teach a pig to sing. It wastes your time and annoys the pig.

        by countrycat on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:14:50 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I just want Joe to LOSE (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        I cannot STAND the idea that Lieberwhine's dirty anti-democratic ploys could get him reelected.

        BTW I had a dream last night that we won 5 Senate seats, and that Lieberman won (which kind of made it 4).  Was glad to wake up and find it hadn't happened...yet!

        Never give up! Never surrender!

        by oscarsmom on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:45:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  There is no Lamont "increase" (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Read carefully. You cannot infer movement from one poll (and one methodology) to another. In this polling firm's history, there has been zero movement. Zero. This race is stuck in cement. And frankly, from watching it 2000 miles away, that doesn't surprise me.

    •  Maybe Schlesinger needs a little love too (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      countrycat, serrano

      Just some gentle reminders to Republicans that Schlesinger IS their dog in their hunt.  It would be a public service!

      Chaos, fear, dread. My work here is done.

      by madhaus on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:12:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm Contributing to Schlesinger - YOU SHOULD TOO (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bree, John DE

        It's very rare that we have an opportunity to split the Republican vote in an important race like this.  We should avail ourselves of the opportunity by contributing to Schlesinger.  I have been, and I urge you to do the same.

        Even a little bit of dough will really help him out a lot.  And every percentage point that Schlesinger gets is a point that Lieberman does not get.  It's that simple.

        •  Good Ballot Spot (0+ / 0-)

          Schlesinger will be at the top of the ballot, right next to very-popular Gov. Jodi Rell, while Joe is at the very bottom--might help some, particularly w/Repugs...

        •  Schlesinger (0+ / 0-)

          will take votes from Lier, not Lamont, that's for sure!!

          Never give up! Never surrender!

          by oscarsmom on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:47:23 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  There's a note on his website... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          madhaus, wader

          ...from prior to the primary, mentioning that he wants to be in on any debate.  As he should be.

          Which begs the question: Are there any debates scheduled in this race?  And are all three canidates going to be involved?

          •  RIght, we shall all demand (0+ / 0-)

            that Schlesinger be included in all debates!  LTEs, call-ins to radio shows (especially conservative shows), chats in diners... get the word 'round that Schlesinger is the Republican and deserves a seat at the debate table.

            For that matter, start a second prong that Lieberman does NOT deserve to be in the debate, since he isn't representing a legitimate party.  There are no other candidates, no election history, and no platform.  It's a pretend party for a pretend candidate!

            Chaos, fear, dread. My work here is done.

            by madhaus on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 12:10:14 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  You mean like this? (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        madhaus, wader, nasarius

        Won Fair And Square  

        I am a Republican and must say that I am very disappointed in the Republican Party and our lack of support for our party-nominated candidate for senate, Alan Schlesinger. It seems even my national party is favoring “Independent” Joe Lieberman because of his stance on Iraq, while ignoring that on other issues, Lieberman may even be more liberal than Ned Lamont. Ronald Reagan must be turning over in his grave. Even our state GOP, with a wildly popular governor and three Republican representatives in Congress, is distancing itself from Schlesinger. While Mr. Schlesinger may not be the strongest candidate we could have fielded, he won the party nomination fair and square and deserves our support, especially when the alternatives are a “liberal” and a “more liberal” Democrat. Perhaps we can fix the nominating process next time out so we can field a true alternative to more of the same. Meanwhile, I call on all fellow Republicans to proudly cast their votes for Alan Schlesinger in November.

        Not that I would know who wrote it...  ;=)

        "I'm not a member of an organized political party. I'm a Democrat!" - Will Rogers

        by newjeffct on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 01:02:49 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Actually, a closer look shows that to be 3 weeks (0+ / 0-)

      old.  Time for a new look.

    •  Hey! (0+ / 0-)

      You've got my name!!!

    •  I think last week's (0+ / 0-)

      was the outlier, and this is the reliable one.  But maybe that's just cause I like these results better.  Ah, the political rohrschatz that is polling data...

      "now my foes tell me plainly I am an ass: so that by my foes, sir I profit in the knowledge of myself"

      by looty on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 12:37:50 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  What's the story with NH-01? (0+ / 0-)

    Any good news there?

  •  Funny line in the Courant the other day, (12+ / 0-)

    saying Schlesinger was in a battle with MoE for 3rd place.  LOL!!!

    Ned is coming on--Go Ned.

    •  The Schlesinger numbers (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Geotpf, bree

      are incredible. But they've been consistent all along, so you have to believe them.
      Has any major-party candidate for Senator ever failed to get into double digits?
      Well, probably yes, back in the old one-party South. A Republican (back when it was the party of Lincoln) might have done that badly in Alabama or Mississippi.
      But when has a major-party candidate for Senator run 55 points behind the same party's candidate for Governor? Or vice versa?

      "I belong to no organized party. I am a Democrat." -- Will Rogers

      by Allogenes on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:29:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  One example (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wader, Allogenes

        Alan Dixon was re-elected by a 65/31 margin in 1986.

        While the Illinois Democratic Party ticket of Nobody and LaRouchie Mark Fairchild recieved 6%

        Granted, that situation involved LaRouchies winning the nominations for Secretary of State and Lt. Governor, and Adlai Stevenson III refusing to run as a Democrat and running with the Solidarity Party.

        As for the Southern example, the catch is that while Republicans did poorly in the South, they would have had a hard time having one candidate fair well and one fair poorly.

        Although in 1924, Ma Ferguson defeated Republican George Butte by a 59/41 margin in Texas, while Senator Morris Shephard beat T. M. Kennerly by a 85/15 margin.

        Republican Senate candidates in 1932 were able to get over 10% in Alabama (14%) and Arkansas (10.5%).

        Ok, I found one example of superlandslide. James Eastland over Joe Moore in 1960 in Mississippi. 92% to 8%. Eastland went on to win in 1972 by a 58/39 margin while McGovern got 19% in Mississippi. Granted, Nixon refused to support Eastland's opponent (who was more liberal than Eastland too).

        "Our country right or wrong. When right, to be kept right; when wrong, to be put right" - Carl Schurz

        by RBH on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:51:25 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Happened in 2004 (0+ / 0-)

        Crapo (R) 499,796 99%
        McClure (D) 4,136 1%

        No, I'm not making this up, unfortuantly.

  •  Damn Texas (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jamfan, Sopiane

    If we could keep Kinky in there (who is probably taking more from Perry at this point) and lose one of the Dem-Progressive challengers we'd have us a race.

    Bush will be impeached.

    by jgkojak on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:11:45 AM PDT

  •  The Salazar race in CO is 52-41. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jamfan, ca democrat

    Not that it makes a lot of difference.  source.

    He's 3-1 with independents and gets one in five GOP voters.

    "Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities" -- Voltaire

    by ohwilleke on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:12:04 AM PDT

  •  How do we get Kinky to cash in his chips? (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Shawn, TexH, citizenx, sccs, partisanhack

    If he'd just pass the hat over to Bell, we could actually stand a chance of winning this one...

    "Nothing is as difficult as not deceiving oneself" - Ludwing Wittgenstein

    by Palamedes on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:12:31 AM PDT

    •  When you think about it (6+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Al Rodgers, Hlinko, bree, Sopiane, citizenx, sccs

      Tony Sanchez picked up 40% against Perry in 2002, and Perry was considerably more popular then, and Grandma wasn't in the race.

      It is still very possible for Democrats to be elected statewide in Texas.

      I reject your reality and substitute my own!

      by Arjun Jaikumar on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:15:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  give him a microphone (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sherri in TX, TXsharon, sccs

      I can't believe that the shine hasn't worn off of that one trick pony Kinky. He is doing a pretty good job of putting his foot in his mouth these days. I can't wait for the debate.

      •  Kinky is finally figuring out (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        citizenx, sccs

        That politics ain't a comedy act.  It's <ahem> hard work

        •  who knew? (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Sherri in TX, Sopiane, citizenx, sccs

          Judging from his campaign, apparently Kinky thinks the state runs on one-liners.

          His campaign will never be about seriousness or substance b/c he can't run on those.  Most of his supporters like the idea of a freewheeling, independent sharp-tongued candidate, but often have no freakin' idea what Kinky actually stands for.

          another shock troop in the Class War

          by exiled texan on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:39:11 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Bell needs to develop a three part plan (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            citizenx, sccs

            Something good about the idea of electing him.

            Something bad about the idea of re-electing Perry.

            Something bad about supporting Kinky.

            Turn Kinky's strength of being an outsider against him and make people realize that if Kinky gets elected, you'll get total gridlock on a lot of important issues, while Kinky will never have the influence to pressure the Legislature to do anything, because he'll have no friends at all in there.

            Governor Kinky Friedman would be a lot like President Ross Perot. While some people like those concepts, they just won't work.

            "Our country right or wrong. When right, to be kept right; when wrong, to be put right" - Carl Schurz

            by RBH on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 12:00:39 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Here are some of Kinky's points (0+ / 0-)

            •Casino gambling to fund schools, or "slots for tots."

            •Legalization of marijuana. More prison room for "the pedophiles and the politicians."

            •Gay marriage. "Because I believe they have a right to be just as miserable as the rest of us."

            •Abolishment of the death penalty. Until "the criminal justice system is perfect."

            •  sounds like soundbites, not policies (0+ / 0-)

              and he isn't against the death penalty he is against executing an innocent man. (whatever that means)

              Do you think Kinky is going to do anything about gay marriage as Governor?

              Do you think Kinky is going to be able to get Pot legalized in Texas?

              Do you think Kinky will be able to get Casinos legalized in Texas?  

            •  If I'm not mistaken, Kinky also supports prayer (0+ / 0-)

              in the public schools.  I think he said something like, "if you don't love Jesus, you don't belong in school" or words to that effect.  I remember the part about loving Jesus particularly, because I thought that was an odd thing for a Jew to say.

    •  I doubt he will, just to be stubborn (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TXsharon, Sopiane, citizenx

      But Chris Bell is the far superior candidate.  

      Texas embarrasses me often enough without Kinky's help.  Did you see the crap about Pete Sessions or Gregg Abbott's peeping tom investigators?  

      I love my state, but it's just crazy here sometimes.  HELP!

      We have to become the leaders we seek. --boadicea

      by sccs on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 12:04:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  OK... (0+ / 0-)

        Responding to your cries of help...

        Since I'm a far-off non-Texan (and pretty busy with my own state's craziness (of a very different nature than that of Texas, mind you...)), what campaign or candidate would you most strongly say deserves $20 from an out-of stater, and why?

        "Nothing is as difficult as not deceiving oneself" - Ludwing Wittgenstein

        by Palamedes on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 12:42:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Jodi Rell (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    newjeffct, wishingwell, bree

    shit just does not stick to that lady

    her top aide is being investigated, she came in under Rowland, you'd think she'd be toxic but she never does anything other than telling everyone in CT we should all smile because we're too stressed out

    I'm kind of stalling for time here...They told me what to say. George W Bush, 03-21-2006 10:00 EST Press Conference

    by Tamifah on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:15:17 AM PDT

    •  She is the female Reagan (0+ / 0-)

      A teflon governor... nothing sticks to her.  I think she's about as deep as Reagan, though.

      I remember not long after she imposed a hiring freeze, the Courant had a story about how she bent the rules to hire 3 cronies of hers into cushy part-time jobs.  I even had a Letter to the Editor published on the subject, but it generated nary a peep beyond that original story.

      And, when Rowland was governor, wasn't there some scandal involving her teenage son?

      I think she got a lot of media sympathy, however, because of her breast cancer.

      "I'm not a member of an organized political party. I'm a Democrat!" - Will Rogers

      by newjeffct on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 01:07:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Also, NM Polls (0+ / 0-)

    of two very un-competitive races.

    I diaried here about these and what Bingaman and Richardson can do to help all Dems in NM.

  •  Ohio looks good! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ahianne, serrano, Public Servant

    Maybe we can get an honest election in '08.

    It is simply an insult to those who came before us and sacrificed so much on our behalf to imply that we have more to be fearful of than they did. -Al Gore

    by kitebro on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:20:23 AM PDT

    •  OH-IO (0+ / 0-)

      The polling does continue to look good. I'm a little disappointed in the level of television ads from the Repugs, versus the lack of ads from the Dems.  Watched the last Ohio State football game, and nothing but Repug ads at every break, and nary a Dem ad.  When are they going to spend all of this money I keep hearing about?  I hope it's soon, or the Repugs will be successful again this year in allowing the Dems to wind up on Labor, while the Repugs are just kicking it in gear.  Too many times, I've watched the Repugs spend BIG MONEY to define the Dems in September, and then to watch the Dems try and fail to catch up in October.

      I remain hopeful that the Dems will ride a truth tsunami into the House and Senate, despite their campaign strategy.  

      The November Tsudemi Approacheth

      by Public Servant on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 12:20:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  seems like the REPS negative ads are already (0+ / 0-)

    working, God - i hate the REPS - am i going to hell?

    How do you know a Republican is lying? Ask one: If the Republicans can lower gas prices for 60 days before an election, why won't they do it all the time?

    by ca democrat on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:20:31 AM PDT

  •  MN-Gov. a TIE right now (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    peterj911, ca democrat

    Star-Trib Minnesota poll released over the weekend showed Pawlenty (R) and Hatch (D) tied at 42% each, just one percent movement since the July numbers for the same poll. People all over the state know both these incumbents, so it's going to be a slug-fest to decide this one. Bad news is further down the article, where right-direction vs. wrong-direction for the state has 48% favorable, good news for incumbent Governor Pawlenty. Hatch needs to tie Pawlenty to Bush more effectively.

  •  FUCKIN AYE - Chafee is at 39 (8+ / 0-)

    With his name recognition he's below 40!!!!

    Tie Shrub around his neck, like lead weight.

    "ma ca ca - yo pee pee"

    by Al Rodgers on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:23:05 AM PDT

  •  O My God. Schlesinger is running in the mid (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    single digits?

    That's like what militia candidates get.

    ... we now know a lot of things, most of which, we already knew... (-dash888)

    by Tirge Caps on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:24:47 AM PDT

  •  IN-2 Donnelly (D) leads incumbent Chocola (0+ / 0-)

    "Democrat Joe Donnelly is leading incumbent U.S. Rep. Chris Chocola in the 2nd District congressional race, but the contest is still tight, according to a poll released today.

    The South Bend Tribune/WSBT-TV poll taken over the weekend has Donnelly leading among likely voters 50 percent to 42 percent, with 8 percent undecided.

    "We're pleased to be ahead," Donnelly said in response to the poll, adding his belief that the outcome will be close because of the district makeup."

    This from the Lafayette Journal & Courier.  More in the link.  No actual info about the poll (n, MoE, survey question), but that's pretty darn striking that Donnelly has an 8% lead by the poll.  I can't imagine, even in Indiana, that the undecideds would break for the incumbent, given his hard-line conservative stance.  There's little ambiguity about who Chocola is.  People are probably waiting to hear from the woefully underfunded Donnelly.

    •  Update (0+ / 0-)

      Whoops, looks like they updated the story.


      Previous poll had Donnelly at 46, Chocola at 41, undecided 13 (also n=400, 5% MoE).

      That means that there's a 4:1 trend in the undecided break in favor of Donnelly between the polls.  Hard not to take the two polls combined as pretty good news for a seat people didn't expect Dems to be able to contest very well.

    •  info on Donnelly poll (0+ / 0-)

      it's from Research 2000 (the same group that did the 2nd poll of the race in july), it has a MoE of 5 points.  Here is some info on it from the Tribune.

      'Round the Bend: fighting for the bluification of Indiana's 2nd district, one breakfast cereal mascot at a time.

      another shock troop in the Class War

      by exiled texan on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:45:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  also (0+ / 0-)

      interestingly, the same day Chocola said he has a new poll that shows that he's up by 5 points.  The MoE on his poll?  5.65 points.  It only surveyed 300 likely voters.

      another shock troop in the Class War

      by exiled texan on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:48:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I never understand such small surveys (0+ / 0-)

        If you survey 500 people, you are going to get a low MOE, no matter what the size of the population of people you are surveying (IE, 500 is fine for a presidential race poll, believe it or not).  300 is too few for almost every race.  Spend the extra dollar fifty and survey 500 people already.

  •  I don't believe the 5% for Schlesinger in CT (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MJB, bree, Skaje, serrano

    Any major-party nominee for any office (who isn't under indictment) can get well into double-digits. Connecticut, in particular, is a state with a strong-tradition of straight-party-line voting. I'd guess he'll get about 15%, and that it will come out of Lieberman's hide.

  •  Joe skips votes on Medicare to raise money! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Check out Today's Cup o Joe

  •  Relentless bad news has hurt Granholm--for now (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jamfan, lovin lansing MI

    Since Labor Day, there has been an unending stream of bad news: first the Detroit teachers' strike and then the worsening situation at Ford. The good news is that the candidates for governor have agreed to four debates in October. Granholm should be able to destroy DeVos in a debate.

    "I came to the conclusion long ago that all life is six to five against."--Damon Runyon.

    by Dump Terry McAuliffe on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:26:50 AM PDT

  •  Those House results are disappointing (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    But I am hopeful that we can beat Chafee. 39% is a terrible number for an incumbent, especially a Republican incumbent in a Democratic state.
  •  New USA Today/Gallup Poll has W at 44 (0+ / 0-)

    Have already seen Nora O'Repug on MSNBC, in an interview of John Kerry, stating that the poll shows Bush at 44, the highest he's been in a year, that the Repugs have pulled even with the Dems in regard to which Party you'll vote for in November, and that for the first time since Nov 2005 the majority no longer feel Iraq was a mistake.  Any more news available on this poll?  Looks like the polling was done Sept 15-17, just a couple days after their last poll on Sept 13?  It's up on the msnbc webpage too, and I'm sure is up on Gallup, USA Today and other news pages.  Wonder how it'll be played.  Wonder if it was on front page of USA Today in today's paper?  If not today, USA Tomorrow.  

    Every time a new poll with the slightest bump comes out, the MSM touts it hoping that they can drive a "comeback" story in the news.  It's pathetic.  

    Just again saw Nora telling John Harwood about Bush's 44, and the dead heat in the congressional matchups.  Jeez.    

    The November Tsudemi Approacheth

    by Public Servant on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:31:11 AM PDT

    •  When she first reported it she said (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      diana04, Public Servant

      Bush was up "FIVE" points-emphasis noted. She was so excited, she almost wet her pants saying it.

      •  I thought I heard something dripping (0+ / 0-)

        I just thought it was me...with sarcasm.

        The November Tsudemi Approacheth

        by Public Servant on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:41:03 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  yes (0+ / 0-)

        She is about the only person on MSNBC except Buchanan who thinks the Repugs will hold the House and the Senate and are making a comeback. And she is always on Hardball or Chris Matthews praising Bush.

        What concerned me more than Bush's supposed bounce, if that is indeed credible which I am doubting, is the poll about Iraq. How can people change their minds so radically in less than a month about Iraq? I am not buying that poll or else that would show that some people are very Squishy on Iraq. I have my doubts about that as most people you will encounter are either Pro Iraq War or Anti Iraq War ( they may differ on strategies on what to do ) but I see few people with no opinion on it at all. I know they exist but geesh, for a vast change on this War...shocks the hell out of me.

        Carry the battle to them. Don't let them bring it to you. Put them on the defensive and don't ever apologize for anything. - Harry S. Truman

        by wishingwell on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:47:37 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I agree, doesn't make sense at all- hopefully (0+ / 0-)

          an error.  We'll know in 7 weeks.

        •  Repugs are working very hard (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          anotherCt Dem, wader

          at conflating the war on Terror with the war in Iraq.  Unfortunately my cynical mind believes that yes, people are that stupid.

          So it's up to the party of opposition to show the American people what a lie this is!!  C'mon Dems!

          Never give up! Never surrender!

          by oscarsmom on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:59:16 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Don't forget (0+ / 0-)

            the news that al-Qaeda is currently in charge of al-Anbar province.  That sure sounds like the terrorists are in Iraq, particularly to people who aren't paying too much attention.  (And in fact, that news just came out a couple of weeks ago, didn't it?  That could explain the change in the polling.)

            For political purposes, I think Dems shouldn't stop at "Leave Iraq", but "Leave Iraq and instead...."

            • bolster Afghanistan.  
            • protect our borders.
            • go after the terrorists wherever they are, rather than getting bogged down in one place.

            ...and of course, equip them properly so they can do their jobs.  "Don't fight" is a message that can be trumped by fear, but "fight smarter" is immune.

        •  This is on the heels of 9/11 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          and 2 weeks of Bush speeches on the WOT. Remember something like 35-40% of Americans still think Iraq had something to do with 9-11. They had a week to remember how scared they were on 9/11 and how Bush made them feel better, not to mention gas prices are dropping.

          Politicians and diapers both need to be changed often, and for the same reason..unknown

          by Sherri in TX on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 12:09:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  if the poll is accurate (0+ / 0-)

      I thought it might be a post 9-11 bounce which could fade within 2-3 weeks...let us hope.

      Carry the battle to them. Don't let them bring it to you. Put them on the defensive and don't ever apologize for anything. - Harry S. Truman

      by wishingwell on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:43:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It was predicted (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bree, wader, John DE, Public Servant, oscarsmom

      both the diminishing-returns "bounce" as a result of a two-week PR onslaught re. the 5-year 9/11 anniversary, and the media's hyping of said bounce. According to Rasmussen, who does the daily tracking polls, Bush bounced UP to 47% and, as of today, back DOWN to 40%, all within a few days.

      So with the main pre-existing "bounce" predicator over (9/11 anniversary), and the next one not coming till the holiday season (people feel more charitable and give better ratings), that 44% should be a peak. Barring, of course, the October Surprise...

      Something's happening here today -- a show of strength with your boys' brigade. Paul Weller

      by jamfan on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:44:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Not going to make it through Nov! (0+ / 0-)

      Cook says a tsunami for the Dems. This MSM talking head is touting polls that show a deadheat for Congress. And, despite my best intentions, I seem unable NOT to read the polls! And it's only September. AAAARGH is right.

    •  yeah, it also shows the Republicans even with the (0+ / 0-)

      Democrats at 48% each. Now that's pathetic.

  •  Whats up the the Maine governors race? (0+ / 0-)
  •  other polls differ (3+ / 0-)

    Rasmussen has bush at 40%

    survey usa just came out at 39%

    Even the survey poll is being spun as a positive because it`s higher than it was last month. pretty sad when 39% and 44% are considered good.

    •  It's not so much the 44, it's that... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wader, Phil S 33

      they are touting that it the highest in a year, that Iraq is ok for W now, and that the congressional race is a dead heat.  I wonder what the internals are on this poll?

      The November Tsudemi Approacheth

      by Public Servant on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:38:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The reporting on that poll burns me up-the public (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Public Servant

        is going to believe he must be doing something right.  Polls say this and that, blah, blah, blah,---well, Bush ain't so bad.....

        Pretty soon, Karl and the boys are out there reminding everyone what a great job he's doing---can't you tell--look at his poll numbers. AAARRRRGGGHHHHH!!!!!!!!!  

      •  Gallup (0+ / 0-)

        Remember, all polls have their quirks and habits. Gallup has an odd screen that measures people's likelihood to vote based on how much they know about the election (including such things as where polling places are). Look closely at their methodology: I bet they just kicked into their likely voter model.

        Gallup, like all any other poll, tends to be more accurate if actual turnout matches their turnout model. Their model tends to "predict" low tunout, emphasizing only hard partisans. That's why they have Bush's numbers higher. It's not that they are measuring more Bush supporters, it's that the divisor (total expected voters) is lower.

        Rasmussen is similar, by the way. Other polls, in particular Pew and Ipsos, "predict" higher turnout. It's all a game. Gallup, by the way, has had the same turnout model since like forever.

      •  44 (0+ / 0-)

        Face it, although the media most likely won't:

        If 44% is a big fat uptick and shows things are great, and it's probably within a point of the best you can do, then you suck. Big time. And most people don't like you.

        If Tyranny and Oppression come to this land, it will be in the guise of fighting a foreign enemy. ~James Madison

        by mjshep on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 04:09:00 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  FL-13: First post-primary poll out. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jennings: 46 Buchanan: 38

    I just diaried about it here.

  •  I can hear the lament now (0+ / 0-)

    How Kinky screwed over Chris Bell.  There will be no talk of how what a dull candidate he is or what a bad campaign he ran. It will all be Kinky's fault.

    •  This election is certain to produce a weird map (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      citizenx, sccs

      of Texas.

      Just imagine all the colors if Kinky can pick up some little county. Or if Carole Manynames can pull out a win somewhere in West Texas.

      Or imagine all the possible plurality victories for Bell.

      Or, just keep kneecapping Bell.

      Something of that sort.

      Anyways, ya know that there'll be people who'll vote Kinky just for the marijuana thing, because they're too damn stupid to realize that Kinky isn't with them on a majority of issues. But since he wants legal pot, just wait for the geniuses to vote for him instead.

      "Our country right or wrong. When right, to be kept right; when wrong, to be put right" - Carl Schurz

      by RBH on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 11:56:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Not so. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sopiane, citizenx

      So, Kinky's a better media grab, but he's not a good candidate for governor.  

      If he pulls from Bell enough to throw the election back to Perry, the lament will be more about HOW KINKY SCREWED OVER TEXAS.

      We have to become the leaders we seek. --boadicea

      by sccs on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 12:16:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Denial (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Adam B, Chairman Bob

    We are appropriately happy when polls favor us... Comments like "I don't trust this poll", just because they aren't what we'd like to see, is really quite revealing and somewhat pathetic. If we're wise we'd not leave comments that stink of denial, but instead recognize the shortfall and throw extra effort into the campaign trails...whether it be phonebanking, donations, etcetera.

    •  There's denial and there's reality (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Geotpf, Skaje

      If there's a legit reason for a poll to be an outlier, that should be noted.

    •  Agree (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      that we ought not to react so defensively to bad polls. But the real reason is not the one you cite. I don't know how many of you all have experience with real live polls, but if you spend 10 minutes with a pollster you'll understand just how silly it is to stress out (or jump for joy) at any result without seeing the crosstabs. Take the MN race, for instance. Bachmann leads by 9. Sounds awful. But look again. There's a 3rd party candidate in there, so only about 3-4 points worth of undecideds! That's an open seat, folks. Real undecideds are going to be in the 20's or 30's, easily. If we had the details, we'd be able to tell right away that Bachmann's support is soft. And it might well be that Wetterling has more hard support than Bachmann. In fact, I suspect that's the case.

  •  these poll results (0+ / 0-)

    are pretty brutal.

    "I don't wanna listen to the fundamentalist preachers anymore!" -Howard Dean

    by astronautagogo on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 12:07:19 PM PDT

  •  1st Debate Held in the MN-06 (0+ / 0-)

    I'll be very curious to see some polls taken since last night (9/18). The first debate between the three major party candidates for the MN-06 was held last night in St. Cloud, MN.

    I'm just curious what impact, if any, that had on the debate. I'd sure hate to see Bachmann win it. But this is the pro-life headquarters of the state. Strong religious voters, both catholic and conservative protestant.

    At least it won't be a gain if it goes to Bachmann. But Wetterling is such a good person and candidate!

    Give to Wetterling if you can. Keep MN Blue!

  •  New Survey USA Bush polls for all 50 states (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    movie buff, wader, jamfan, Public Servant


    The polls were taken between September 14th and 17th so there was a little ware on the Bush bounce. Overall the weighted avergae is 39%, 1 point higher than in August. Five states now give Bush over 50%: Utah, Idaho, Whyoming, Nebraska, and Texas. Ohio is still the lowest rated state that voted for Bush at 34%, and Hawaii is the highest rated that Voted for Kerry at 42%.

    Overall not much notable change from last month, but I did notice that California dropped 6 points to 30%.

    •  Okay Folks.. (0+ / 0-)

      You can't look at Nevada's approval/Disapproval ratings and trend chart and not think it's worth throwing some money at Jack Carter's Senate campaign! Please, Please, Please, save us from Ensign! I know you can!

  •  SurveyUSA party ID numbers for their polls (0+ / 0-)

    Michigan Statewide: 32R/40D/21I

    Hayworth/Mitchell: 52R/28D/19I

    Salazar/Walcher: 47R/28D/23I

    Bachmann/Wetterling: 39R/35D/19I

    And the Voter registration split for Arizona's 5th is 44R/28D/27I

    The Hayworth lead is NOT 12 points. It's probably around 6 points if you actually sample the district accurately.

    "Our country right or wrong. When right, to be kept right; when wrong, to be put right" - Carl Schurz

    by RBH on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 12:20:21 PM PDT

    •  That's more like it (0+ / 0-)

      Harry Mitchell is probably our single strongest recruit this year.  He's massively popular even with Republicans, serving as mayor and state Senator.  Hayworth couldn't even hit 60% last time against a no-name, invisible candidate.

    •  You have got to be kidding me! (0+ / 0-)

      Who is doing this poll! That is a massive skew. I doubt AZ-05 could have changed that much in 2 years?

      Its good to know that Mitchell is probably closer than we think. I just wish I knew how close he is!

      All I want for election day is AZ-05 Harry Mitchell, AZ-Sen Jim Pederson, AZ-Gov Janet Napolitano (2nd term!) and for the Dems to control the House and Senate.

      by AstroCook on Sat Sep 30, 2006 at 11:44:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  What's most likely to change about TX-Gov? (0+ / 0-)

    a) The Republican block (Kinky, Perry, Carole) getting 71% of Hispanic votes, while Bell gets 26%?

    b) Bell leading the Republican block amongst African-Americans by a 55-41 margin?

    c) Bell getting just 55% of Democrats?

    Granted, SurveyUSA oversamples Republicans here too, going with a 50R/33D/14I sample in a state that had a R/D/I of 43/32/24 in 2004.

    "Our country right or wrong. When right, to be kept right; when wrong, to be put right" - Carl Schurz

    by RBH on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 12:36:42 PM PDT

  •  Beware SUSA! They robo-dial! (0+ / 0-)

    As the StarTribune's Eric Black notes, SUSA uses automated polling -- or "robo-dialing" -- to do their polls.  That explains a lot about SUSA's polls and why they tend to be all over the map.

    SUSA had a poll recently where they had Lieberman leading Lamont 51% to 38%, and Lieberman was crowing about that until the new Rasmussen poll came out showing Lamont down only by two, 45%-43% -- less than half of the poll's 4.5% margin of error.  (Bear in mind that Rasmussen is a GOP pollster, too.)

  •  Another one: IN-02 (0+ / 0-)

    According to a poll taken by Research 2000 for The South Bend Tribune and WSBT-TV, and taken 9/15-9/17, Democratic challenger Joe Donnelly is leading Republican incumbent Chris Chocola among likely voters by 50%-42%.  This is up from a lead of 5% in the same poll taken from 7/21-7/23.

  •  Friedman and Bell... (0+ / 0-)

    Damnit it...they add up to enough votes to beat Perry.  Gawd...I hate this year...Governor Good Hair will pull off a win with a "majority" lower than W's poll ratings!!

    No one can terrorize a whole nation, unless we are all his accomplices. - Edward R. Murrow

    by CrazyHorse on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 01:12:24 PM PDT

  •  OK-Gov (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    According to a REPUBLICAN poll taken by the Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates Sooner Survey, Democratic incumbent Brad Henry is leading Republican challenger Ernest Istook by a margin of 59%-30%.  Looks like maybe Istook should have held onto his Congressional seat.

  •  Looks good for the Republicans (0+ / 0-)


  •  CT, how do you vote to turn out Lieberman, but he (0+ / 0-)

    leads Lamont in a 3-way race?

    I'm hoping the first comment to this post is right about suspecting the results.

    I support the Cooperative Research site's 9/11 timeline efforts and 9/11 families.

    by davidwparker on Tue Sep 19, 2006 at 04:47:58 PM PDT

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