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The first part of my analysis of the Wisconsin Democratic AG primary race showed just how effective Kathleen Falk's TV ads were. I claimed that they determined the outcome of the race, but I didn't really back that up with real data. The map I presented showed how strongly each county went for one candidate or the other, but what it didn't show was how many actual votes came from each county. And some counties obviously have a heck of a lot more voters than others.

So I made a new map to show where the votes actually came from. Follow me down to see it.





Once again, Red is Falk, blue is Lautenschlager. But since this map reflects the margins in actual votes, rather than percentages, it looks quite a bit different. Dane and Milwaukee Counties really stand out. Almost one-third of the total votes in the primary came from these two counties alone. Lautenschlager won Dane County by about 10,100 votes, and Falk won Milwaukee County by almost 8,400 votes.

But Madison and Milwaukee pretty much canceled each other out. So just where did Falk's 20,000 vote margin of victory come from?

Turns out it came from the Wausau/Rhinelander and the La Crosse/Eau Claire media markets, as I claimed before. Despite the fact that there aren't a huge number of votes in any of these counties individually, which is why they're light pink in this map, Falk won all of them by healthy margins, totaling about 23,000 votes, more than enough to offset the fact that Lautenschlager actually won in the rest of the state.

For a little more detail, and a side-by-side comparison of the two maps, please check my blog, reform-dem.blogspot.com.

Originally posted to russw on Wed Sep 20, 2006 at 01:03 PM PDT.

Poll

Who did you vote for in the AG primary

48%13 votes
51%14 votes

| 27 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Interesting (0+ / 0-)

    to see the breakdown.  Falk outspent Lautenschlager by a wide margin, I heard on the local progessive radio show. Particularly in the Milwaukee area. Peg just didn't have much money.  And the drunk driving issue played, I believe, a very large role in some voter's minds.

    "If you're going through hell, keep going". -Winston Churchill

    by One bite at a time on Wed Sep 20, 2006 at 01:11:24 PM PDT

    •  Another view: (0+ / 0-)

      could this have been Milwaukee's evangelical conservatives coming out in force, crossing party lines, just to vote out Peg?

      When life gives you wingnuts, make wingnut butter!

      by antirove on Wed Sep 20, 2006 at 01:15:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  could be (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        EthrDemon

        but I think there was a huge motivation for dems to vote for the  candidate that would win...one without the albatross that the repubs would hang around her neck.  The exploitation of that arrest would be huge.

        "If you're going through hell, keep going". -Winston Churchill

        by One bite at a time on Wed Sep 20, 2006 at 01:22:59 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  That was at the front of my mind (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Mia Dolan

          when I checked the box for Falk

          •  Just a small bit on the side (0+ / 0-)

            I think that Falk would have been a good governor and is a good County Exec. Would the arrest have mattered? Maybe a little, but mostly to the self-righteous smug individuals who are going to vote for the Party of the Self-Righteous anyway.

            Democrats: Giving you a government that works.

            by freelunch on Wed Sep 20, 2006 at 03:39:09 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  You may be right (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Mia Dolan

              I really didn't research either as much as I probably should have, but I couldn't stop thinking how many under-informed voters might be thinking "Lautenschlager?  Oh yeah, the Attorney General with the DUI."  Maybe it wouldn't matter, but I made a judgement call and I stand by it.

        •  I agree (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Mia Dolan

          That's why I voted for Falk. Not that I have anything in particular against Lautenschlager, but I'm afraid her drunk driving arrest (in a state car, for crying out loud) was a politcally fatal mistake, if not, thankfully, a literal one.

          As for evangelicals in Milwaukee....well, they're more likely to be found in Waukesha county, just west of Milwaukee, which would explain the relatively small number of votes in that area, since it was a (sorry if this isn't the right term)partisan primary--you could only vote for one party or the other. At least that's the way it was in Waukesha county. Milwaukee county itself--well, I just don't know what the motivation was for choosing Falk so conclusively over Lautenschlager. I am wondering what Madison knows about Kathleen Falk, as county executive, that made them choose Lautenschlager over her.

          •  Re why Madison chose Falk: (0+ / 0-)

            Lots of factors, I'm sure.  But I do think Falk's lack of experience vs Peg's years of experience swayed a number of voters that I know.  The weather was bad that day, wonder what would have happened had it been sunny and 70? Primaries and crappy weather isn't the ideal.

            "If you're going through hell, keep going". -Winston Churchill

            by One bite at a time on Wed Sep 20, 2006 at 02:14:17 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Why would they bother (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Mia Dolan

        Falk will be no more sympathetic to their cause of a theocratic Wisconsin that Lautenschlager was, while either Rethug would be enthusiastically in favor of a theocratic fascist Wisconsin (and America).

  •  Drunk Driving arrest (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisVoter, EthrDemon

    Lautenschlager was arrested for drunk driving, and the arrest was filmed.  I have not seen the film, but I understand she does the roadside tests and asks the officer if he knows who she is - as in, I'm the AG so let me go.  I think most voters realized that having that tape run in Republican campaign commercials this fall would not be good for Lautenschlager or the Democrats in general.

    That map is really intersting.  Since Falk is the Dane County exec, I thought she would have done well there instead of Lautenschlager.  

    I grew up on Lautenschlager's home turf in the blue Fox Valley area.

    Chuck Norris and Mr. T walked into a bar. The bar was instantly destroyed, as that level of awesome cannot be contained in one building.

    by Mia Dolan on Wed Sep 20, 2006 at 01:25:40 PM PDT

    •  The cop who busted Lautenschlager endorsed her... (0+ / 0-)

      specifically because she handled herself so well and was so respectful to him, unlike many other VIP's he's arrested. This was reported in an article in the Cap Times last July 11.

      So I wonder who's been spreading the rumor you heard. I've seen the films of Peg's arrest, and she doesn't act or even look drunk, just really tired. She's very cooperative and polite, and doesn't pull rank or behave inappropriately in any way. The films really didn't give the Republicans much to use against her, other than the fact that they existed.

      •  OK (0+ / 0-)

        Well, like I said, I haven't seen the tape so I apologize if I am spreading disinformation.  Nonetheless, its still not a tape of Lautenschlager with puppies and children -- its a tape of the Attorney General of the state getting arrested for driving dunk.

        Chuck Norris and Mr. T walked into a bar. The bar was instantly destroyed, as that level of awesome cannot be contained in one building.

        by Mia Dolan on Wed Sep 20, 2006 at 06:55:05 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  How did Madison vote n/t? (0+ / 0-)
    •  Dane County went for Peg (0+ / 0-)

      I don't think that Madison was much different from the other half of Dane County. Half of the Peg vote was a finger in the eye for Doyle who set Falk up for this, the other half voted for her because she is a good AG.

      Democrats: Giving you a government that works.

      by freelunch on Wed Sep 20, 2006 at 03:34:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Madison and Dane County (0+ / 0-)

    went strongly for Lautenschlager.  And Falk was certainly very well known around here.  Says something, doesn't it?

    And then there's Doyle's grudge against Peg.  Really thrilled about his re-election.

    Not sure I can bring myself to vote for Falk in the general election.  I may write in Peg.

    "But I do think one thing we can all agree on is that this country is overdue for a cheesehead president. We've never had one." --Russ Feingold

    by kkshedevil on Wed Sep 20, 2006 at 02:13:25 PM PDT

    •  You need to look at the big picture (0+ / 0-)

      The Rethug will be much worse than Falk could ever be.

      The Rethug probably will harass family planning groups, while helping out the anti-choice, bigoted theocratic fascists, for example.

    •  Well (0+ / 0-)

      Why wouldn't you vote for Falk?  She only ran because Lautenschlager couldn't figure out that her political career ended on the side of Wisconsin highway.  And if Doyle loses, I am sure that after a year or two of Green the thought of a Doyle re-election would be thrilling in comparison.  

      Chuck Norris and Mr. T walked into a bar. The bar was instantly destroyed, as that level of awesome cannot be contained in one building.

      by Mia Dolan on Wed Sep 20, 2006 at 02:21:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I gotta disagree. (0+ / 0-)

        Peg was taken down because Doyle had a vendetta for her. If you actually look at the polls it's not at all clear that Falk is a stronger candidate against the Republicans. The drunk driving thing probably hurt Lautenschlager a lot more in the primary than it would have in a general election.

        In my opinion the primary was really about Doyle solidifying his control over the Democratic Party of Wisconsin by eliminating the only prominent Dem left in the state who was willing to challenge him. I don't believe this is good for the party in the long run.

        Falk has two major weaknesses, her lack of prosecutorial experience and being seen as a "liberal" Democrat from Dane County. The Republicans will hammer her hard on both. All we can do is work hard and hope Falk pulls it off. If she doesn't it's going to be a heck of a mess.

        •  Well (0+ / 0-)

          Jim Doyle IS the Democratic Party of Wisconsin.  He is all that stopping the  Republicans there from turning Wisconsin into Mississippi.  If Doyle and Lautenschlager have a problem between them, that is Lautenschlager's problem, not Doyle's.  We need to not be worried about "challenging" Doyle or worrying about him solidifying power over what's left of the Wisconsin Democratic party.  We need to be thankful he is the governor and that he probably still will be after November.  

          Doyle certainly signed off on Falk running and is not sad to see Lautenschlager go.  But he did not "take her down" or destroy her.  Lautenschlager gave him the opening by pulling an spectacularly bone-headed move.   She should have dropped out - she is the AG for Christ's sake.  When I heard about the DUI, I called my folks (who live in Wisconsin) and asked who was going to replace her.  When I heard it was a quality candidate like Falk, I was very happy.  

          Chuck Norris and Mr. T walked into a bar. The bar was instantly destroyed, as that level of awesome cannot be contained in one building.

          by Mia Dolan on Wed Sep 20, 2006 at 06:52:44 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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