There are three polls on the Pennsylvania Senate race out in the ether
right now, all showing very different results. The good news: All three
firms agree that Casey is leading Santorum. But by how much?
1. The only publicly-available survey (as of today) is
the latest
Keystone poll, from Franklin & Marshall College.
604 RVs, about 4% MoE
Bob Casey, Jr. 45%
Rick Santorum 38%
Carl Romanelli 5%
That looks pretty good, huh? A seven-point lead is nothing to sneeze at.
But wait:
Are you currently registered as a Republican, Democrat, or as
something else?
Republican 46%
Democrat 43%
That's right - Casey has a seven-point lead among a GOP-heavy sample. And
it's been decades since more Republicans than Democrats have gone to the
polls in a statewide race in Pennsylvania.
And, as kossack looking italian noted, Keystone once again has a f***-ed
up geographical sample.
Region of the state
Philadelphia 6%
Northeast 12%
Allegheny 9%
Southwest 10%
Northwest 10%
Central 36%
Southeast 17%
Since at least 2000, the combined Southeast has averaged about 30-35% of the total statewide vote. I'm not toally sure (need to do some number-crunching) but the Allegheny (Pittsburgh) sample seems small as well.
2. Yesterday, diarist mhlinds01 noted that a new Rasmussen poll is available to subscribers.
Bob Casey 49%
Rick Santorum 39%
Sample information is unavailable; Romanelli was included, but no numbers as of yet.
Out of all three of the polls, my gut tells me that this one is the most accurate. Unfortunately, all of Rasmussen's internals are off-limits to non-subscribers like myself, so I can't take a deeper look. I will note that this lines up well with Pollster.com's rolling average, which has it at about 49-40 Casey-Santorum.
3. The last is known to me only by a blurb on PoliticsPA (scroll down the left-hand column). This one, by IssuesPA/Pew says that Casey leads by an incredible 21 pts.
1201 RVs MoE 3%
Bob Casey 52%
Rick Santorum 31%
Carl Romanelli 3%
The blurb notes that Casey actually leads by 23 among the 75% of RVs who say that they are certain to vote.
When I say "incredible," I mean it - I don't believe this poll for a second. Although most of the polls taken since the Casey campaign launched their air-game have shown improvement, this is just a ittle too much improvement. 52% for Casey seems reasonable - I think he's definitely pulling a majority right now - but every other poll has Santorum hovering somewhere around the 40% mark. His support is too low in this poll to trust it completely.
If we average the last four polls taken, the four since Casey's ads went up in heavy rotation, we get 50.5% for Casey, and 36.5% for Santorum. As I've said, I think the IssuesPA poll is dragging Santorum's average down, but even so, Casey has about a ten-point lead. With six weeks to go, a new "Broken promises" ad hitting Santorum to come soon, VoteVets knocking Santorum on the air-waves over body-armor, and Rendell's fundraisers pitching in, he's in good shape to close this one out as a Democratic victory.
P.S. Speaking of Rendell - he's thumping Lynn Swann.
Keystone Poll
Ed Rendell 52%
Lynn Swann 34%
Rasmussen
Ed Rendell 56%
Lynn Swann 36%
IssuesPA/Pew
Ed Rendell 61%
Lynn Swann 32%