I posted an update of the pros' composite House ratings on Monday. In that diary, I combined the parties' seats, as the National Journal does. At the request of DavidNYC, I am now reposting the composites the way I normally do, with the GOP and Dem seats ranked separately. I also added three things: 1) I substituted in the latest National Journal ratings, which came out on Friday (before I posted but after I compiled); 2) I included poll numbers from
nonpartisan polls taken in
August or September; and 3) I included my thoughts on potential upset races to watch that did not make any of the pros' lists. Bottom line, the Dems are solidly positioned to make double-digit gains. These analysts tend to range the outcome from +10 to +20, with exactly the +15 needed for control as the "top of the bell curve" outcome. I tend to be more optimistic; from what I've seen, the most likely outcome is around +25.
Anyone who has read one of these before can skip to the ratings.
Of the handicappers, the Cook Report, CQ, Rothenberg, Sabato, Roll Call use a three-tier rating system ("tossup" or "no clear favorite"; "leans [party]"; and "likely [party]" or "[party] favored"), the New York Times has only a two-tiered rating system ("tossup" and "leans [party]"), and the National Journal and Cilizza rank the seats without providing a tiered rating. Thus, to combine the two methods, I created a numerical rubric. For Todd and Cilizza, I simply assigned a point score inverting the rankings (i.e. #1 in a top 50 list gets 50 points, #50 gets 1). FWIW, Todd produces a top 50 list, while Cilizza's is only top-20.
For the three-tiered rating services, I assigned 45 points for tossup races, 30 for lean races, and 15 points for likely races (this month, for the first time, some handicappers are putting some GOP seats in lean or even likely Dem. I used 53 for Rothenberg's tossup/lean Dem, 60 points for a pure lean Dem, and 75 for a likely Dem. I also used 37 for Rothenberg's tossup/lean GOP category). I assigned 40 points for a tossup and 20 for a lean rating under the Times' two-tier system.
I present the composites both in terms of tiered rating and ranked by total points. Last week's point totals are in parentheses for comparison. Incumbents are denoted with an asterisk. Here's what they say 41 days from Election Day:
GOP Seats
Lean Dem (370+)
1. Texas 22 (OPEN R) (397) (1-411) (Nick Lampson (D) vs. Shelly Sekula-Gibbs (R-write in))
2. Arizona 08 (OPEN R) (391) (3t-356) (Gabrielle Giffords (D) vs. Randy Graf (R)) Poll: Giffords 48, Graf 36 (Zimmerman, Sep. 18)
Tweener, Tossup to Lean Dem (350-369)
3. Iowa 01 (OPEN R) (374) (2-362) (Bruce Braley (D) vs. Mike Whalen (R)) Poll: Braley 54, Whalen 41 (RT Strategies, Aug. 29)
4. Colorado 07 (OPEN R) (357) (6-342) (Ed Perlmutter (D) vs. Rick O'Donnell (R)) Poll: Perlmutter 54, O'Donnell 37 (SurveyUSA, Sep. 25)
5. Indiana 08 (Hostettler (R)) (355) (3t-356) (Brad Ellsworth (D) vs. Jon Hostettler* (R)) Poll: Ellsworth 47, Hostettler 39 (composite of ISU Sept. 21, RT Strategies Sep. 10, and Research 2000 Sep. 8)
Tossups (250-349)
6. Pennsylvania 06 (Gerlach (R)) (341) (5-343) (Lois Murphy (D) vs. Jim Gerlach* (R)) Poll: Murphy 50, Gerlach 45 (RT Strategies, Aug. 29)
7. Indiana 09 (Sodrel (R)) (325) (7-325) (Baron Hill (D) vs. Mike Sodrel* (R)) Poll: Hill 50, Sodrel 41 (composite of RT Strategies Sep. 10 and Research 2000 Sep. 8)
8. Indiana 02 (Chocola (R)) (315) (14t-283) (Joe Donnelley (D) vs. Chris Chocola* (R)) Poll: Donnelly 51, Chocola 41 (composite of Research 2000 Sep. 17 and RT Strategies Sep. 10)
9. Connecticut 04 (Shays (R)) (304) (8-305) (Diane Farrell (D) vs. Chris Shays* (R)) Poll: Shays 49, Farrell 42 (RT Strategies, Aug. 29)
10t. New Mexico 01 (Wilson (R)) (302) (9-303) (Patricia Madrid (D) vs. Heather Wilson* (R)) Poll: Wilson 51, Madrid 46 (SurveyUSA, Sep. 20)
10t. North Carolina 11 (Taylor (R)) (302) (13-285) (Heath Shuler (D) vs. Charles Taylor* (R)) Poll: Shuler 50, Taylor 47 (RT Strategies, Aug. 29)
12. Connecticut 02 (Simmons (R)) (301) (10-302) (Joe Courtney (D) vs. Rob Simmons* (R)) Poll: Courtney 51, Simmons 45 (RT Strategies, Aug. 29)
13. Florida 22 (Shaw (R)) (298) (11-300) (Ron Klein (D) vs. Clay Shaw* (R)) Poll: Shaw 52, Klein 44 (RT Strategies, Aug. 29)
14. Illinois 06 (OPEN R) (287) (12-287) (Tammy Duckworth (D) vs. Peter Roskam (R)) Poll: Duckworth 47, Roskam 46 (RT Strategies, Aug. 29)
15. Ohio 18 (OPEN R) (286) (16-272) (Zack Space (D) vs. Joy Padgett (R))
16. Virginia 02 (Drake (R)) (282) (14t-283) (Phil Kellam (D) vs. Thelma Drake* (R)) Poll: Kellam 51, Drake 43 (RT Strategies, Aug. 29)
17. New York 24 (OPEN R) (271) (17-269) (Mike Arcuri (D) vs. Ray Meier (R))
18. Ohio 15 (Pryce (R)) (270) (18-267) (Mary Jo Kilroy (D) vs. Deborah Pryce (R))
19. Kentucky 04 (Davis (R)) (255) (261) (Ken Lucas (D) vs. Geoff Davis* (R)) Poll: Lucas 48, Davis 44 (SurveyUSA, Sep. 18)
Tweener, Tossup to Lean Rep (230-249)
20. Pennsylvania 07 (Weldon (R)) (239) (21-224) (Joe Sestak (D) vs. Curt Weldon* (R))
21. Washington 08 (Reichert (R)) (234) (22-219) (Darcy Burner (D) vs. Dave Reichert* (R)) Poll: Reichert 50, Burner 45 (composite of RT Strategies Aug. 29 and SurveyUSA Aug. 23)
22. Minnesota 06 (OPEN R) (231) (20-232) (Patty Wetterling (D) vs. Michelle Bachmann (R)) Poll: Bachmann 50, Wetterling 41 (SurveyUSA, Sep. 17)
Lean Rep (150-229)
23. Pennsylvania 10 (Sherwood (R)) (222) (26-207) (Chris Carney (D) vs. Don Sherwood* (R)) Poll: Carney 50, Sherwood 43 (RT Strategies, Aug. 29)
24. Ohio 01 (Chabot (R)) (215) (23-216) (John Cranley (D) vs. Steve Chabot* (R))
25. Pennsylvania 08 (Fitzpatrick (R)) (214) (24-214) (Patrick Murphy (D) vs. Mike Fitzpatrick* (R)) Poll: Fitzpatrick 53, Murphy 45 (RT Strategies, Aug. 29)
26. Connecticut 05 (Johnson (R)) (213) (25-213) (Chris Murphy (D) vs. Nancy Johnson* (R))
27. Wisconsin 08 (OPEN R) (196) (27-190) (Steve Kagen (D) vs. John Gard (R))
28. New York 20 (Sweeney (R)) (186) (28-189) (Kirsten Gillibrand (D) vs. John Sweeney* (R)) Poll: Sweeney 53, Gillibrand 34 (Siena College, Aug. 23)
29. Arizona 05 (Hayworth (R)) (174) (29-172) (Harry Mitchell* (D) vs. J.D. Hayworth* (R)) Poll: Hayworth 52, Mitchell 40 (SurveyUSA, Sep. 17)
30. Texas 23 (162) (30-158) (Several Dems (D) vs. Henry Bonilla* (R))
31. New York 29 (Kuhl (R)) (153) (31-140) (Eric Massa (D) vs. Randy Kuhl* (R))
Tweeners, Lean Rep to Likely Rep (130-149)
32. Florida 13 (OPEN R) (133) (32-132) (Christine Jennings (D) vs. Vern Buchanan (R))
Likely Rep (51-129)
33. New Hampshire 02 (Bass (R)) (127) (33-118) (Paul Hodes (D) vs. Charles Bass* (R)) Poll: Bass 55, Hodes 30 (Research 2000, Sep. 14)
34. Kentucky 03 (Northup (R)) (120) (37-107) (John Yarmuth (D) vs. Anne Northup* (R))
35. Colorado 04 (Musgrave (R)) (117) (40-99) (Angie Paccione (D) vs. Marilyn Musgrave* (R)) Poll: Musgrave 46, Paccione 42 (SurveyUSA, Sep. 13)
36. Nevada 02 (OPEN R) (118) (34t-116) (Jill Derby (D) vs. Dean Heller (R)) Poll: Heller 45, Derby 42 (Mason-Dixon, Sep. 21)
37t. New Jersey 07 (Ferguson (R)) (110) (34t-110) (Linda Stender (D) vs. Mike Ferguson* (R))
37t. New York 19 (Kelly (R)) (110) (34t-110) (John Hall (D) vs. Sue Kelly* (R))
39. Nevada 03 (Porter (R)) (107) (105) (Tessa Hafen (D) vs. Jon Porter* (R)) Poll: Porter 47, Hafen 37 (Mason-Dixon, Sep. 21)
40. Wyoming at Large (Cubin (R)) (105) (42t-90) (Gary Trauner (D) vs. Barbara Cubin* (R))
41. New York 25 (Walsh (R)) (95) (39-100) (Dan Maffei (D) vs. Jim Walsh* (R))
42. California 11 (Pombo (R)) (86) (41-91) (Jerry McNerney (D) vs. Richard Pombo* (R))
43. Minnesota 01 (Gutknecht (R)) (85) (42t-90) (Tim Walz (D) vs. Gil Gutknecht* (R))
44. Florida 09 (OPEN R) (75) (46-75) (Phyllis Busansky (D) vs. Gus Bilirakis (R)) Poll: Bilirakis 61, Busansky 32 (SurveyUSA, Sep. 27)
45t. California 50 (Bilbray (R) (65) (44t-80) (Francine Busby (D) vs. Brian Bilbray* (R)) Poll: Bilbray 54, Busby 40 (SurveyUSA, Sep. 12)
45t. Kentucky 02 (Lewis (R) (65) (44t-80) (Mike Weaver (D) vs. Ron Lewis* (R))
47t. Arizona 01 (Renzi (R)) (60) (48t-60) (Ellen Simon (D) vs. Rick Renzi* (R)) Poll: Renzi 45, Simon 32 (Northern Arizona Univ., Sep. 17)
47t. Illinois 10 (Kirk (R)) (60) (48t-60) (Dan Seals (D) vs. Mark Kirk* (R))
47t. New York 03 (King (R)) (60) (47-66) (Dave Mejias (D) vs. Peter King* (R))
Tweeners, Likely to Safe Rep (31-49)
50t. Florida 08 (Keller (R)) (45) (51t-45) (Charlie Stuart (D) vs. Ric Keller* (R))
50t. Florida 16 (Foley (R)) (45) (51t-45) (Tim Mahoney (D) vs. Mark Foley* (R))
50t. Iowa 02 (Leach (R)) (45) (51t-45) (Dave Loebsack (D) vs. Jim Leach* (R))
50t. Minnesota 02 (Kline (R)) (45) (51t-45) (Colleen Rowley (D) vs. John Kline* (R))
50t. Nebraska 01 (Fortenberry (R)) (45) (51t-30) (Maxine Moul (D) vs. Jeff Fortenberry* (R))
50t. Ohio 02 (Schmidt (R)) (45) (51t-45) (Victoria Wulsin (D) vs. Jean Schmidt* (R) Poll: Schmidt 45, Wulsin 42 (SurveyUSA, Sep. 17)
Other races that two of the handicappers listed
56t. California 04 (Doolittle (R)) (30) (57t-30) (Charlie Brown (D) vs. John Doolittle* (R))
56t. Idaho 01 (OPEN R) (30) (57t-30) (Larry Grant (D) vs. Bill Sali (R))
56t. New Hampshire 01 (Bradley (R)) (30) (57t-49) (Carol Shea-Porter (D) vs. Jeb Bradley* (R)) Poll: Bradley 56, Shea-Porter 31 (Research 2000, Sep. 14)
56t. North Carolina 08 (Hayes (R)) (30) (56-31) (Larry Kissell (D) vs. Robin Hayes* (R))
Other races that one of the handicappers listed
60t. Louisiana 07 (Boustany (R)) (15) (61t-15) (Mike Stagg (D) vs. Charles Boustany* (R))
60t. Michigan 08 (Rogers (R)) (15) (61t-15) (Jim Marcinkowski (D) vs. Mike Rogers* (R))
60t. New Jersey 05 (Garrett (R)) (15) (61t-15) (Paul Aronsohn (D) vs. Scott Garrett* (R))
60t. New York 26 (Reynolds (R)) (15) (nr-0) (Jack Davis (D) vs. Tom Reynolds* (R))
60t. Pennsylvania 04 (Hart (R)) (15) (57t-30) (Jason Altmire (D) vs. Melissa Hart* (R))
60t. Virginia 10 (Wolf (R)) (15) (nr-0) (Judy Feder (D) vs. Frank Wolf* (R))
60t. Washington 05 (McMorris (R)) (15) (61t-15) (Peter Goldmark (D) vs. Cathy McMorris* (R))
60t. West Virginia 02 (Capito (R)) (15) (57t-30) (Mike Callaghan (D) vs. Shelley Capito* (R))
68. Colorado 05 (OPEN R) (1) (nr-0) (Jay Fawcett (D) vs. Doug Lamborn (R))
Other races unranked by the pros but with independent polling putting the challenger within 20 points
California 26 (Dreier (R)) (Cynthia Matthews (D) vs. David Dreier* (R)) Poll: Dreier 48, Matthews 35 (SurveyUSA, Aug. 16)
Florida 05 (Brown-Waite (R)) (John Russell (D) vs. Ginny Brown-Waite* (R)) Poll: Brown-Waite 56, Russell 40 (SurveyUSA, Sep. 19)
Other races unranked by the pros that nonetheless are worth watching (says me, roughly in this order)
Kansas 02 (Ryun (R)) (Nancy Boyda (D) vs. Jim Ryun* (R))
Ohio 12 (Tiberi (R)) (Bob Shamansky (D) vs. Pat Tiberi* (R))
Colorado 06 (Tancredo (R)) (Bill Winter (D) vs. Tom Tancredo* (R))
Virginia 05 (Goode (R)) (Al Weed (D) vs. Virgil Goode* (R))
Montana at Large (Rehberg (R)) (Monica Lindeen (D) vs. Dennis Rehberg* (R))
Indiana 03 (Souder (R)) (Tom Hayhurst (D) vs. Mark Souder* (R))
Nebraska 03 (OPEN R) (Scott Kleeb (D) vs. Adrian Smith (R))
Iowa 04 (Latham (R)) (Selden Spencer (D) vs. Tom Latham* (R))
Ohio 03 (Turner (R)) (Dick Chema (D) vs. Mike Turner* (R))
Michigan 09 (Knollenberg (R)) (Nancy Skinner (D) vs. Joe Knollenberg* (R))
Texas 14 (Paul (R)) (Shane Sklar (D) vs. Ron Paul* (R))
California 45 (Bono (R)) (David Roth (D) vs. Mary Bono* (R))
Illinois 15 (Johnson (R)) (David Gill (D) vs. Tim Johnson* (R))
Dem Seats
Tossups (250-349)
None
Tweeners, Tossup to Lean Dem (230-249)
None
Lean Dem (150-229)
1. Illinois 08 (Bean (D)) (205) (2-206) (Melissa Bean* (D) vs. David McSweeney (R)) Poll: Bean 48, McSweeney 45 (RT Strategies, Aug. 29)
2. Georgia 12 (Barrow (D)) (197) (3-197) (John Barrow* (D) vs. Max Burns (R))
3. Iowa 03 (Boswell (D)) (196) (1-209) (Leonard Boswell* (D) vs. Jeff Lamberti (R)) Poll: Boswell 54, Lamberti 43 (RT Strategies, Aug. 29)
4. Vermont at Large (OPEN D) (177) (4-178) (Peter Welch (D) vs. Martha Rainville (R)) Poll: Welch 48, Rainville 42 (composite of Rasmussen Sep. 24, Research 2000 Sep. 19, and ARG Sep. 15)
5. Georgia 08 (Marshall (D)) (174) (5-174) (Jim Marshall* (D) vs. Mac Collins (R))
6. Texas 17 (Edwards (D)) (169) (6-170) (Chet Edwards* (D) vs. Van Taylor (R))
7. West Virginia 01 (Mollohan (D)) (166) (7-168) (Alan Mollohan* (D) vs. Chris Wakim (R)) Poll: Mollohan 52, Wakim 42 (RT Strategies, Aug. 29)
8. Ohio 06 (OPEN D) (155) (9-155) (Charlie Wilson (D) vs. Chuck Blasdel (R)) Poll: Wilson 56, Blasdel 40 (RT Strategies, Aug. 29)
Tweeners, Lean to Likely Dem (130-149)
9. Louisiana 03 (Melancon (D)) (149) (8-166) (Charlie Melancon* (D) vs. Craig Romero (R))
10. South Carolina 05 (Spratt (D)) (135) (10-139) (John Spratt* (D) vs. Ralph Norman (R))
Likely Dem (51-129)
11t. Colorado 03 (Salazar (D)) (95) (11t-90) (John Salazar* (D) vs. Scott Tipton (R)) Poll: Salazar 52, Tipton 41 (SurveyUSA, Sep. 17)
11t. Ohio 13 (OPEN D) (95) (11t-90) (Betty Sutton (D) vs. Craig Foltin (R))
13. Illinois 17 (OPEN D) (78) (13-78) (Phil Hare (D) vs. Andrea Zinga (R))
14. Washington 02 (Larsen (D)) (60) (14t-60) (Rick Larsen* (D) vs. Doug Roulstone (R)) Poll: Larsen 58, Roulstone 35 (SurveyUSA, Aug. 30)
Tweener, Likely to Safe Rep (31-50)
15. South Dakota at Large (Herseth (D)) (50) (17-50) (Stephanie Herseth* (D) vs. Bruce Whalen (R))
16t. Kansas 03 (Moore (D)) (45) (14t-60) (Dennis Moore* (D) vs. Chuck Ahner (R))
16t. Utah 02 (Matheson (D)) (45) (14t-60) (Jim Matheson* (D) vs. LaVar Christensen (R))
18. Indiana 07 (Carson (D)) (35) (19-35) (Julia Carson* (D) vs. Eric Dickerson (R)) Poll: Carson 55, Dickerson 35 (Research 2000, Sep. 8)
Other races listed by two handicappers
19t. North Dakota at Large (Pomeroy (D)) (30) (18-45) (Earl Pomeroy* (D) vs. Matt Mechtel (R))
19t. Oregon 05 (Hooley (D)) (30) (20t-30) (Darlene Hooley* (D) vs. Mike Erickson (R))
Other races that one handicapper listed
21t. Louisiana 02 (Jefferson (D)) (15) (20t-30) (Jefferson*/K. Carter/T. Carter/Shepherd (D) vs. Joe Lavigne (R))
21t. Maryland 03 (OPEN D) (15) (22t-15) (John Sarbanes (D) vs. John White (R))
Other races not listed but with independent polling putting the Dem's lead under 20 points
Arkansas 02 (Snyder) (Vic Snyder* (D) vs. Andy Mayberry (R)) Poll: Snyder 56, Mayberry 42 (SurveyUSA, Sep. 20)
Other races to watch (says me)
Hawaii 02 (OPEN D) (Mazie Hirono (D) vs. Bob Hogue (R))
North Carolina 13 (Miller (D)) (Brad Miller (D) vs. Vernon Robinson (R))