First, here's the IEM trading level as I write:
Kerry .52
Edwards .22
Dean .15
Clark .08
For the first time this season, the IEM is pricing the candidates pretty closely to where I think fair value is.
Here what I think the percentage chances are for each guy to win the nomination (with changes from my last prediction on Tuesday), and briefly why:
Kerry .60 (+.15 since Tue)
It looks like he's headed to a big win in NH. If that indeed happens, why on Earth would a guy who won IA, won NH big, and has the lion's share of Party support not get the nomination? I can't see a reason.
Edwards .30 (-.05 since Tue)
With an anticipated 2nd place finish in NH, he becomes the only viable alternative to Kerry. I don't see how Kerry stumbles, but if he does, Edwards is the beneficiary.
Clark .05 (-.10 since Tue)
The Dean meltdown has destroyed the reason for his candidacy.
Dean .05 (+.00 since Tue)
I've been trying to figure out any scenario for him to get back in the game. Here's the only thing I could come up with: he survives NH and Feb 3rd, and somehow manages to win both MI and WA. I'd give him a 1 in 20 chance of doing that.