New Democrat Network (PDF). 5/19-26. MoE 2.5% for overall sample, 3.3% for battleground states.
Presidential, national
Kerry 47
Bush 46
Battleground states
Kerry 51
Bush 43
Congressional Ballot
Democrat 46
Republican 38
State Legislature
Democrat 44
Republican 37
The pollster says:
At this stage of the election, the President is being judged for his leadership skills more than for his performance in office. Even though just 35 percent say the country is headed in the right direction, 51 percent say they give the President a positive rating for the job he is doing overall. Even though just 40 percent say the economy is headed in the right direction, 46 percent give the President a positive rating for the job he is doing on the economy. The Republican Party's appeal is based on the personal attributes of one person - not its issue positions or record; the Democratic Party's appeal is based on issues and record while its leader has yet to be defined in the eyes of the electorate.
Indeed, one of the most interesting aspects of this poll is that the Republican party is dramatically underpolling president Bush, both at the congressional level and the state legislative level. The resurgence of the Democratic Party is confirmed as well in the party favorable/unfavorable numbers.
Democratic Party
Favorable 57
Unfavorable 38
Republican Party
Favorable 51
Unfavorable 44
What about Nader?:
Without Nader on the ballot, Kerry has a tiny lead, 47 percent to 46 percent. With Nader on the ballot, Kerry is losing 43 percent to 45 percent (with Nader drawing 6 percent). Nader is drawing his votes from independents and Democrats, the majority of whom would otherwise be voting for Kerry. Without Nader on the ballot, Nader voters prefer Kerry over Bush 58 percent to 22 percent.
Lots to chew on in this poll.
(Battleground states are Arkansas, Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.)
Update: Fox has new poll out as well, and it looks good for our side. Mattb25 has a diary with the details. The bottom line?
June 8-9, 900 RV, +-3%
Kerry 45 (42)
Bush 43 (42)
Kerry 42 (40)
Bush 42 (40)
Nader 3 (3)
Battleground states:
Kerry 46 (39)
Bush 41 (44)
Kerry 43 (37)
Bush 40 (43)
Nader 4 (2)
These numbers come amidsts the Reagan lovefest. It doesn't look like Bush is getting any bump at all.