The following is a brief update on the top races in the Oregon elections this fall. The following are my opinions and my opinions only and do not represent any campaign, interest group, etc.
Note: -i=incumbent. D=Democratic, R=Republican, C=Constitution, L=Libertarian, G=Green, I=Independent. Where an incumbent is present they are always listed first and if not the incumbent party is listed first.
Governor
Candidates: Ted Kulongoski(D-i), Ron Saxton (R), Mary Starrett (C), Richard Morley (L), Joe Keating (G).
Summary: The race has closed a bit in recent weeks after several waves of negative ads from Saxton. Still, even the partisan Moore Polling outfit hasn't been able to put Saxton above 38%. The winner may only need 45-47% this year and Saxton will have a hard time getting there. Kulongoski only recently started to run ads but it staying positive for now.
Read: Leans Kulongoski
Congress
None of the incumbents is in the least threatened. Erickson and Hooley are busy slining mud at each other in Dist. 5 but I doubt much will come of it. If Erickson is going to pull the upset, this is not the year.
Read: Dists. 1, 3, 4, 5 Likely/Safe D, 2 Safe R.
State Legislature
State Senate
Current Breakdown
D: 17
R: 11
I: 2 (Gordly, formerly D, Westlund, formerly R).
Safe/Likely Seats:
Dist 3-Bates (D-i).
Dist 4-Prozanksi (D-i).
Dist 5-Morisette (D-i).
Dist 8-Morse (R-i).
Dist 11-Courtney (D-i).
Dist 13-L. George (R-open).
Dist 16-Johnson (D-i).
Dist 17-Avakian (D-open).
Dist 19-Devlin (D-i).
Dist 20-Schrader (D-i).
Contested Races
District 7
Candidates: Vicki Walker (D-i), Jim Torrey (R)
Summary: Easily the best pickup opportunity for R's anywhere in the state. Walker has been holding her own but this one is going down to the wire.
Read: Tossup.
District 10
Candiates: Jackie Winters (R-i), Paul Evans (D)
Summary: Iraq War vet Paul Evans has been running a hell of a race here in this somewhat conservative Salem area district. Jackie Winters in turn has attempted to swiftboat Evans by challening his service. Still, too much of an R district to give Evans the edge for now.
Read: Tossup.
District 15
Candidates: Bruce Starr (R-i), John Napolitano (D)
Summary: Bruce has always been the more moderate of the two Starrs (one of whom was defeated this year in the Republican primary by Larry George, see above) and should probably win here but Hillsboro is changing and anything is possible.
Read: Leans Starr.
District 24
Candidates: Rod Monroe (D), TJ Reilly (R), Ron McCarty (I)
Summary: This shouldn't be too much of a race but with McCarty in there as a potential spoiler you never know.
Read: Likely Monroe.
District 26
Candidates: Rick Metsger (D-i), Carol York (R)
Summary: Metsger is in very good shape but this district does have a slight R bent to it, making it never out of the possibility for an upset.
Read: Leans Metsger.
State House
Current Breakdown
R: 33
D: 27
Safe/Likely Seats:
Dist 1-Krieger (R-i).
Dist 2-Morgan (R-i).
Dist 3-Maurer (R-Open).
Dist 4-Richardson (R-i).
Dist 5-Buckley (D-i).
Dist 7-Hanna (R-i).
Dist 8-Holvey (D-i).
Dist 11-Barnhart (D-i).
Dist 12-Beyer (D-i).
Dist 13-Nathanson (D-Open), listed here because of the late R replacement in a somewhat D leaning district.
Dist 15-Olson (R-i).
Dist 16-Gelser (D-i).
Dist 23-Boquist (R-i).
Dist 26-Krummel (R-i).
Dist 28-Barker (D-i).
Dist 31-Witt (D-i).
Dist 32-Boone (D-i).
Dist 33-Greenlick (D-i).
Dist 34-Bonamici (D-Open).
Dist 36-Nolan (D-i).
Dist 37-Bruun (R-i).
Dist 38-MacPherson (D-i).
Dist 40-Hunt (D-i).
Dist 41-Tomei (D-i).
Dist 42-Rosenbaum (D-i).
Dist 43-Shields (D-i).
Dist 44-Kotek (D-Open).
Dist 45-Dingfelder (D-i).
Dist 46-Cannon (D-Open).
Dist 47-Merkley (D-i).
Dist 48-Schaufler (D-i).
Dist 51-Flores (R-i).
Dist 52-P. Smith (R-i).
Dist 53-Whisnant (R-i).
Dist 55-Gilman (R-i).
Dist 56-Garrard (R-i).
Dist 57-G. Smith (R-i).
Dist 58-Jenson (R-i).
Dist 59-Dallum (R-i).
Dist 60-Butler (R-i).
Competitive Seats
District 6
Candidates: Sal Esquivel (R-i), Mike Moran (D).
Summary: Esquivel is a Medford native and a pretty moderate guy for the most conservative city in the state. He should win this one but I'm not taking it off the board yet.
Read: Likely Esquivel.
District 9
Candidates: Arnie Roblan (D-i), Al Pearn (R).
Summary: Roblan's win here two years ago was one of the bigger triumphs for the Oregon Democratic party. He has done a good job of staying moderate in this Coos Bay area district and certainly has a slight edge for now.
Read: Leans Roblan.
District 10
Candidates: Alan Brown (R-i), Jean Cowan (D).
Summary: In this reprise of one of the closest races from two years ago Jean Cowan is campaigning very agressively and seems to be making inroads. In a district that was decided by 500 votes last time, whichever side does better GOTV will win this.
Read: Tossup.
District 14
Candidates: Debi Farr (R-i), Chris Edwards (D).
Summary: This is going to be another close race. The Ds have a slight registration advantage here but Farr is the incumbent and so this one is level for now.
Read: Tossup.
District 17
Candidates: Fred Girod (R-Open), Dan Thackaberry (D).
Summary: If you had told me this race would be competitive a few months ago I would have laughed at you. However, with Jeff Kropf dropping out to pursue his talk radio career, this race is now competitive but one has to believe the Rs have a slight edge here.
Read: Leans Girod.
District 18
Candidates: Mac Sumner (R-i), Jim Gilbert (D), Roger Shipman (C).
Summary: Sumner certainly has the edge in this Mollalla District but given Gilbert's suprisingly close showing here two years ago it is too early to put this one in the bag.
Read: Leans Sumner.
District 19
Candidates: Kevin Cameron (R-i), Brian Grisham (D)
Summary: Cameron, who replaced disgraced former Rep. Dan Doyle early duirng the '05 Legislative Session, has to hope the voters in this district don't blame that on him. Grisham ran a good race last time against Doyle and should do again against Cameron.
Read: Leans Cameron.
District 20
Canidates: Vicki Berger (R-i), Connie Garcia (D).
Summary: Vicki Berger is one of those lovable middle of the road moderate Rs that Oregon used to be famous for. Too bad she is far from her leadership's positions now but she's too well known to lose this one, probably.
Read: Leans Berger.
District 21
Candidates: Billy Dalto (R-i), Brian Clem (D).
Summary: How Dalto won in this district is still a mystery to many people. This campaign, which has gone negative on both sides, is going to be a real war between two good candidates.
Read: Tossup.
District 22
Candidates: Betty Komp (D-i), Carl Wieneke (R), Michael Marsh (C).
Summary: Komp won a close one here two years ago but with the burgeoning Hispanic population in Woodburn should be able to win pretty solidly again. However, this district is close enough that one can never be certain.
Read: Leans Komp.
District 24
Candidates: Donna Nelson (R-i), Sal Peralta (D), David Terry (L).
Summary: Nelson is one of the more mediocre members of the legislature and has not been running a real campaign so far. DKos regular Sal Peralta has a chance here but certainly faces an uphill battle.
Read: Leans Nelson.
District 25
Candidates: Kim Thatcher (R-i), Charles Lee (D).
Summary: Thatcher should have the edge here but her recent legal troubles provide pause for concern.
Read: Leans Thatcher.
District 27
Candidates: Tobias Read (D-Open), Dominic Biggi (R).
Summary: Biggi's entire camapign strategy is to paint himself as a lifelong district resident and Read as some crusader who just moved in. I don't think that'll play here, in a district where most of the residents have moved here in recent years and one with a 5% D Registration Edge.
Read: Leans Read.
District 29
Candidates: Chuck Riley (D-i), Terry Rilling (R), Scott Harwood (L).
Summary: Riley is a good candidate, Rilling is not but this is Hillsboro and nothing is ever safe for D's out there.
Read: Leans Riley.
District 30
Candidates: Everett Curry (R-Open), David Edwards (D), Ken Cunningham (C).
Summary: This race has degenerated into mudslinging from both sides recently, although mostly from the Curry camp. Edwards has been running a smart campaign and in a Democratic year has a real shot here in this close battle.
Read: Tossup.
District 35
Candidates: Larry Galizio (D-i), Shelly Parsons (R).
Summary: Galizio won a close one here two years ago but Parsons is not as strong an opponent as the one he beat then and Galizio will beat on every door in the district to win if needs to.
Read: Leans Galizio.
District 39
Candidates: Wayne Scott (R-i), Mike Caudle (D).
Summary: DKos Regular Caudle is running a very strong race in this Canby area district and may well pull ths upset if not this year certainly two years from now once he is better known.
Read: Leans Scott.
District 49
Candidates: Karen Minnis (R-i), Rob Brading (D).
Summary: This extremely contentious race will certainly be the most expensive legislative race in OR history when all is said and done. This race may well determine control of the State House this year and anyone's guess as to who will win is as good as mine.
Read: Tossup.
District 50
Candidates: John Lim (R-i), Jill Selman-Ringer (D), Brian Lowery (L).
Summary: Lim has not done a great job in the last few terms but this Gresham area district gives him a slight edge. Still, Ds have held this seat as recently as 2002.
Read: Leans Lim.
District 54
Candidates: Chuck Burley (R-i), Phil Philiben (D)
Summary: Burley won a close one two years ago and although historically conservative, Bend is changing. It will be an uphill battle, but Philiben has a slight chance for the upset here.
Read: Leans Burley.