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Mason-Dixon has published all of its polling in the closely contested senate races, except for Connecticut.  A few were published yesterday.  Here's the complete list.

In MONTANA Democrat Jon Tester, a state senator, is leading Burns by a 47-40 percent margin, with 10 percent undecided and 3 percent favoring Libertarian candidate Stan Jones.

In MARYLAND Democrat Ben Cardin, a U.S. representative, is leading Republican Lt. Gov. Michael Steele by a 47-41 percent margin in the race for an open seat, currently held by retiring Democratic U.S. Sen. Paul Sarbanes.

In MISSOURI U.S. Sen. Jim Talent, a Republican, is neck-in-neck with Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill, Missouri's state auditor. Both had support from 43 percent of the voters in the poll.

In NEW JERSEY Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez has a 44-41 percent lead over Republican challenger Tom Kean Jr., a state senator.

In OHIO U.S. Rep. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, holds a slim 45-43 percent lead over Republican incumbent Sen. Mike DeWine.

In PENNSYLVANIA Democratic challenger Bob Casey Jr., the state treasurer of Pennsylvania, has a solid 49-40 percent lead of Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum.

In RHODE ISLAND Sheldon Whitehouse, a Democrat and former attorney general in Rhode Island, is locked in a virtual tie with U.S. Sen. Lincoln Chafee, a Republican, with a 42-41 percent edge in the poll.

In TENNESSEE U.S. Rep. Harold Ford Jr., a Democrat, holds a slender 43-42 percent lead over Republican Bob Corker in the race for the seat held by retiring Sen. Bill Frist, the current Republican majority leader in the U.S. Senate.

In VIRGINIA Incumbent Republican George Allen, a possible presidential candidate in 2008, is in a dead heat with Democratic challenger Jim Webb, with both at 43 percent in the poll.

In WASHINGTON Democratic incumbent Sen. Maria Cantwell, thought to be in a tough race, has a 50-40 percent lead over Republican challenger Mike McGavick.

Originally posted to Paleo on Mon Oct 02, 2006 at 03:47 AM PDT.


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Comment Preferences

  •  and it could be likely we pick up a house seat... (9+ / 0-)

    here in Florida.

    I can also be found here, rambling incoherently.

    by BullitNutz on Mon Oct 02, 2006 at 03:49:21 AM PDT

  •  You missed Connecticut (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    oceanview, kestrel9000, khereva

    Where one of the two Republicans in the race sadly remains ahead of the one Democrat.

    The Book of Revelation is not a foreign policy manual.

    by Dont Just Stand There on Mon Oct 02, 2006 at 04:03:05 AM PDT

  •  i hope the DNCC has enuf $$$ (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

     to help all these 10 races. netroots will help too of course. at this rate, i could be very very broke by election day - but very very happy.

  •  Pederson pushing back Kyl (4+ / 0-)

    Arizona isn't out of the running yet!

    Terror report brings Iraq to forefront for Kyl, Pederson

    Recent polls show Kyl with a double-digit lead over Pederson, but the Iraq issue and a campaign that becomes a referendum on Bush could put him on the defensive. Kyl has supported every aspect of Bush's national security strategy and characterizes public criticism of the war as "undercutting our soldiers and giving comfort to the enemy."

    Former Marine Capt. Chris Sheppard, who served two tours of duty in Iraq as a combat engineer, has watched the Kyl-Pederson race with increasing frustration. Sheppard lost four of his Marines in one day during the battle of Fallujah. He wants to know why it took until this week for the candidates to raise Iraq and terrorism as a campaign issue.

    "There's been a lot of political cowardice to even bring Iraq up because there's no good solution," said Sheppard, a registered independent. "I know Pederson might not want to talk about it because he has no military experience. But I know why Kyl doesn't want to talk about it, because it's been an utter and absolute failure to this point."

    Pederson, at least, is no longer tiptoeing around Iraq. He said he waited because he had to build name identification and credibility with voters by outlining his positions on other issues.

    "People are paying attention to this campaign now," Pederson said.

    His ad released Thursday calls the conflict "another Vietnam," and accuses Kyl of shortchanging National Guard pay and veterans hospitals.

  •  Republicans are screwed (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    myrealname, khereva

    Schumer has raised enough money to purchase a small island.  Dole raised next to nothing.  RNC may need to divert big-time resources to Senate seats.  Will be interesting

    "We forfeit three-fourths of ourselves in order to be like other people." Arthur Schopenhauer

    by givemhellHarryR on Mon Oct 02, 2006 at 04:14:22 AM PDT

    •  The minute we say that, WE are screwed. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ablington, Marcus Graly

      The trend is our friend, I agree -- these latest polls look great!  But as I said elsewhere, we're not there yet. Half these races are in statistical ties, whereas we need to win 6 of them just to gain a 51-seat majority in the Senate. Take a minute to be happy. Then let's keep going!

      •  Never stop fighting till the fight is finished. (0+ / 0-)

        No retreat, no surrender, no mercy.

        Bring the Troops Home. Restore Constitutional Government. Take Back Your Nation.
        Justice Holmes: "When you strike at a King, you must kill him."

        by khereva on Mon Oct 02, 2006 at 05:58:32 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Sadly (5+ / 0-)

    many are still within the Diebold margin of error.

  •  This is great news (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Let's keep up the momentum for the next 37(?) days!
    I think we could do it, but we do need bigger margins to offset the chance of vote counting fraud.

    George Bush - the Torture President

    by myrealname on Mon Oct 02, 2006 at 04:39:14 AM PDT

  •  Why does this website have us falling behind? (0+ / 0-)

    I used to think that was pretty accurate, but lately their map of the projected Senate has been getting worse even as so many good poll numbers have been coming out. The publisher is a known Democrat. Does anyone know? It's frustrating.

    •  I know why... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Marcus Graly

      The races in MO, NJ, TN and VA are virtual ties.  Every time a new poll comes out in one of those races, the lead switches.  So, on any given day that website might show the Dems gaining 3 seats, 4 seats, 5 seat, 6 seat or 7 seats.  Right now to win the senate we have to win the equivolent of 3 out of 4 coin tosses.  If one of those races becomes a solid lead then we only have to win 2 out of 3 toss-ups.  How that map at "" looks depends on when it gets updated and what the last set of polls looked like.  A couple of days ago it showed Dems taking the Senate.

      If faced with a stark choice between security and freedom, doesn't it seem like the choice of a courageous, patriotic American should be obvious?

      by Ken in Tex on Mon Oct 02, 2006 at 05:53:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The site is accurate (0+ / 0-)

      He just averges polls for the last week.  The diary is about Mason - Dixon polls, which show us leading all close races, however, there are other polls out there that show us trailing some of them.  These races are very close and will need a fight to the finish.  

  •  "Contested" not the correct word for your meaning (0+ / 0-)

    "Contested" means that there is more than one serious candidate. This is true of every Senate race that I am aware of.

  •  The best news here is the NJ race-- (0+ / 0-)

    it seems that's been nothing but bad news for Dems with Kean consistantly ahead, so its great to see a poll that actually shows Menendez leading!   Any garden staters want to comment-- how do you think your Senate race is going?

    •  I'm in NY but follow the NJ race closely (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Phoenix Woman

      The problem with Kean of course is that his dad was very popular and the son comes across a pretty nice guy. (Not to mention that Menendez is under ethics investigation.)

      But Bush is not very popular in NJ these days at all. The Arab Ports Deal (remember that) is something that upset a lot of New Jersey voters of all stripes (the New York-New Jersey Port Authority is huge around here).

      My personal opinion based on nothing but guessing is that branding the word B-U-S-H on Kean's face could be very helpful in reducing his support. That's the approach that Menendez seems to be taking in commercials, but I haven't seen very many of them. It's extremely expensive to advertise both in the NYC market and in the Phillie market; NJ has no big TV market of its own.

      Menendez needs more money, and we as a community need to help him get his message out through channels other than television.

    •  Several recent polls have shown Menendez (0+ / 0-)

      reversing his slide downward in the polls.  His five poll running average at is only down by 1 point right now.  He has been gaining back ground for the last week or so.  If his momentum holds, he will take the lead back this week.

      Senate Roundup

      If faced with a stark choice between security and freedom, doesn't it seem like the choice of a courageous, patriotic American should be obvious?

      by Ken in Tex on Mon Oct 02, 2006 at 06:04:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  New (0+ / 0-)

      Kean's campaign was using felons for info to smear Menendez.  Two positives:  this could muddy or destroy Kean's claim to being "ethical" plus the indictments were several years ago and prosecutors obviously found nothing against Menendez.  

    •  Article Shows Kean's Partisanship (0+ / 0-)

      Voting record belies Kean's 'independent' claim
      e-mail print The Record

      Article in -- link does not work
      Monday, October 2, 2006


      Republican U.S. Senate candidate Tom Kean Jr. says bipartisan cooperation is the key to solving problems in Washington.

      Ask about the deficit, Social Security and many other issues and Kean's answer usually hits on the same two themes: New Jersey needs an "independent fighter" who is more committed to finding solutions than scoring political points, and Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez is too partisan to be effective.

      But Kean's record as a legislator shows he may not be the independent fighter he says he is. Not only does he serve in the Republican leadership in Trenton, a database analysis by The Record found that Kean voted the same way most of his GOP colleagues did at least 93 percent of the time.

  •  We're not there yet. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    A lot of these races are statistically tied, at best, and we're all aware of the ability of Rove and his minions to turn out votes (even possibly including a few "extra" votes) on election days. I love the trends, but this is not the time to rest on our laurels -- actually, to me these polls just say that now is the time to double our efforts and fast.

  •  I wish they weren't so close (0+ / 0-)

    Election fraud is only doable when the race is close.

    And how ironic that Cantwell has the biggest lead, and she's the one everyone was worried about.

    Help Maryland's Ben Cardin Defeat Bush's Homeboy, Michael Steele

    by Naturegal on Mon Oct 02, 2006 at 05:00:44 AM PDT

  •  the most important one (0+ / 0-)
    is Connecticut, since that's the one that establishes once and for all that Democrats are different from Republicans.  
    •  No, the most important one (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JDPITALIA, katchen, Marcus Graly

      is the one that gives us the Senate. I don't want a symbolic victory -- I want us to get control of the Senate.

      No more Supreme Court wingnuts!

      Help Maryland's Ben Cardin Defeat Bush's Homeboy, Michael Steele

      by Naturegal on Mon Oct 02, 2006 at 05:02:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's not a symbolic victory (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        First of all I don't believe for one minute that Lieberman will keep organizing with the Democrats if the Senate is 50-50.

        Second, "control of the Senate" is near-meaningless if the two parties are the same.  Look at the torture bill, which passed, through Dem complicity, with a large enough majority that one more vote could have passed it out of the Senate as a Constitutional amendment.  That can happen in a political environment that accepts Democrats like Lieberman.  It will happen again if Lieberman survives, since it tells all the other spineless Dems that they can continue their Republican and corporate suck-up behavior.  It will never happen again in the current political generation, if Lieberman is booted.  

        It's not enough to control the Senate by throwing out GOP bastards and installing our own bastards.  If we want to have a respectable country, we need non-bastards representing us.  So we have to clean house on our own side.

        •  correct - we need 7 seats (0+ / 0-)

          in the Senate because Lieberman, without a shadow of a doubt, will caucus R when all is said and done. Go ahead and bank on it, it's a done deal.

          •  I agree (0+ / 0-)

            Actually, I think he will take Rumsfeld's job and the Repub Govenor will get to appoint a new Repub Senator.

            If faced with a stark choice between security and freedom, doesn't it seem like the choice of a courageous, patriotic American should be obvious?

            by Ken in Tex on Mon Oct 02, 2006 at 06:06:59 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

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