Front paged over at the European Tribune
Le Canard Enchainé, the independent French investigative weekly, reports information gathered by French secret services in their conversations with their counterparts in US and Israel. Amongst the big points to note:
- Iran becoming nuclear appears inevitable. The only thing that can be done is to delay the process and hope for some other leadership in Iran;
- the military option is not off the table, but appears unlikely in the short term because the necessay weapons are not available
Le Canard Enchainé reports that French spooks have had access to a secret Israeli strategy paper which states that there are now two kinds of wars: "supra-conventional", and "sub-conventional" (I am translating from French, so these may not be the exact words initially used).
- supra-conventional wars would be those where WMDs might be used. They refer to conflicts with countries, like North Korea and Iran, which have or might have access to such weapons. The main strategy with these countries is to try to negotiate for time, because there is no acceptable military solution
- sub-conventional wars are those led by terrorist organsiations. In that case, the answer is to strike militarily and early enough, like in Irak, Afghanistan or Lebanon (Note: I am just translating Le Canard stating what's in that report)
The point which is not discussed by Le Canard, and which may thus be or not be in the initial report is that it is thus important to know in which situation you are in order to know whether to strike or not. Le Canard Enchainé reports that a change in tone amongst Israeli and US strategists is noted by their French counterparts, and thus I strongly suspect that there has been a determination by some people in the intelligence community that Iran is now firmly in the first category, and thus not "attackable" with a military strike.
Le Canard Enchainé states that US, Israeli and French satellites have identified more than 70 sites in Iran where bits of the nuclear program is being conducted (heavy water production in Arak, uranium enrichment in Naranz, light water reactor in Bushehr, various uranium purification sites), several of which buried 30-100 meters below ground.
20 of these sites could only be destroyed by using a bomb called Blu-122, manufactured by General Dynamics, but apparently the required number of bombs will not be available for a while, thus preventing any attack from being conducted.
(Note: I am just reporting what Le Canard Enchainé writes. They are a highly credible source and have excellent sources within the French intelligence community, but this is obviously second or third hand information, so take it with the requisite care).
While it's hard to know exactly what's true in such instances, it seems highly credible to me, as we have seen a real change in the diplomatic process in recent weeks. The tone during the summer was a lot more bellicose on both sides, but now diplomacy is in full bloom again.
The failure for Israel of the Lebanon war has certainly played a role in weakening the hand of all those that are proponents of the "attack first, discuss later" school of thought in Washington and Israel. I am less sure what has changed Iran's defiant stance. Domestic in-fighting? Promises by the Europeans? Fear of an 'October surprise'? Or certainty that they have the bomb? I certainly cannot guess.
Maybe credible intelligence came through that Iran's nuclear programme is both more advanced and more scattered around than thought. The theory I have is that people started realizing during the summer, when oil was edging towards $80 per barrel, that Iran effectively has a working WMD already: its ability to block maritime traffic through the Hormuz Straits and brutally cut more than 20% of world oil supply from the markets, which would trigger a financial meltdown in the West and cause a major economic crisis.
We'll see what happens next year, but the smart money today is that Iran will not be this year's October surprise.