No national polls today, and the Rasmussen national tracking survey, surprisingly shows a slight uptick for George W. Bush today, as he creeps up to 41% job approval. Meanwhile, there are new numbers in a total of 25 individual races today, with some good news to be found in places. Today, FTP includes a new feature, a momentum meter, which will tell you (the dear reader) whether or not the poll shows an improvement for the Democrats, a decline, or neutral momentum. Follow me below the fold for the numbers....
Two new polls today, by Mason-Dixon and San Jose State University, show a basic flatline in the CA governors race, as incumbent Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger continues to lead Democrat Phil Angelides by 13 points. Slightly better than other recent polls, but not enough to call it momentum. Although, two small spurts of hope for Democrats: (a) Angelides should hit the air in earnest soon, and (b) Schwarzenegger is still not beloved, his job approval is STILL under 50%.
CA 11: McNerney (D) 48%, Rep. Pombo (R) 46% [Neutral]
This is a Democratic firm (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner), polling for an environmental interest group. An earlier poll by the same pollster had the race at four points for McNerney. This is a race that is BADLY needing a poll by a neutral agency.
CO-04: Rep. Musgrave (R) 42%, Paccione (D) 42% [Dems] Just diaried below, an internal poll for the Paccione campaign has the race tied. We'll see what the two independent pollsters in the race (MajorityWatch and SUSA) have to say on the topic.
CT-04: Rep. Shays (R) 46%, Farrell (D) 41% [Dem Momentum]
This is an independent poll, conducted by the University of Connecticut. A previous independent poll had the race at seven points (49-42). The farther from 50% Shays gets, the worse things get for Shays.
CT-05: Rep. Johnson (R) 42%, C. Murphy (D) 42% [Dems]
A new internal poll by Westhill takes longtime Rep. Nancy Johnson out of the lead for the first time. However, it IS an internal poll, so enjoy with your finest salt.
FL-SEN: Sen. Nelson (D) 58%, Harris (R) 31% [Dems]
Zogby, who yesterday gave Charlie Crist a 21-point lead, gives some love to the Democrats today, confirming the substantial hole that Katherine Harris finds herself in a month away from the election.
FL-16: Mahoney (D) 50%, Rep. Foley (R) 43% [Dems] The Majority Watch series decided to jump into this burgeoning race, and their first, independent, poll shows Democrat Tim Mahoney with a seven-point edge over Mark Foley/Joe Negron. No word on whether they apprised respondents of the switcheroo on the Republican side of the ballot.
GA-GOV: Gov. Perdue (R) 53%, Taylor (D) 34% [GOP]
A race many Democrats saw as a longshot is quickly degenerating into a no-shot. Taylor's campaign is destitute, and Perdue starts with a double-digit cushion, as confirmed by this latest poll by Mason-Dixon.
IA-04: Rep. Latham (R) 48%, Spencer (D) 37% [Dems]
This is considered Democratic momentum only because this is considerably closer than the 2004 race was here in the Iowa 4th. However, the usual cautionary note: this is an internal poll, conducted for the Spencer campaign (done by Momentum Analysis, for those who like to know thine pollster).
MD-GOV: O'Malley (D) 47%, Gov. Ehrlich (R) 43% [GOP]
A slight movement toward the incumbent in this latest poll by Mason-Dixon. However, any time an incumbent is down, and sitting on 43%, he ought not be considered a favorite, or even money, for that matter.
MD-SEN: Cardin (D) 47%, Steele (R) 41% [GOP]
In fairness, this is pretty close to neutral momentum, as the two previous polls had the race at 11 and 7 points, respectively. This Mason-Dixon poll confirms a solid, but not insurmountable, lead for Cardin. Interestingly, Steele has higher positives than Cardin, but also considerably higher negatives.
MO-SEN: Sen. Talent (R) 43%, McCaskill (D) 43% [Neutral]
I'll call it now--barring a major news event, this will be the closest Senate race in America this year. No poll has shown either candidate with a lead outside the margin of error, and this dead heat from Mason-Dixon is no exception. 13% undecideds, if traditional maxims hold, has to work in McCaskill's favor.
NJ-SEN: Sen. Menendez (D) 44%, Kean (R) 41% [Dems]
This is the second poll released in the past three days to show a Menendez lead, albeit a small one. Mason-Dixon gives us this one, and shows that Kean may be hurt by Bush's anemic job approval in the state (37%).
NM-GOV: Gov. Richardson (D) 60%, Dendahl (R) 28% [Dems]
YAAAWN....STRETTTCH....Bill Richardson is poised to not only win this gubernatorial race, he is poised to dominate it. This latest Albuquerque Journal poll gives him a 32-point edge. Is Des Moines the next stop for Governor Richardson?
PA-GOV: Gov. Rendell (D) 54%, Swann (R) 37% [Neutral]
There was a time where this really seemed like it would be a race. Swann's campaign has never really caught fire, and Rendell has enjoyed a renaissance of sorts (his job approval was surprisingly high in this Mason-Dixon poll). A series of double-digit leads have rendered this race nearly decided.
PA-SEN: Casey (D) 49%, Sen. Santorum (R) 40% [GOP]
Some GOP spinners are spinning this as a shift. The only reason I have it listed as GOP momentum is that this Mason-Dixon survey is slightly less optimistic for the Democrat than last week's polls. That having been said, a butt-kicking is still a butt-kicking, and this race seems to have solidified with the incumbent trailing by 8-14 points.
PA-10: Carney (D) 47%, Rep. Sherwood (R) 39% [Dems] Just caught this one off MyDD, and I don't have any further information. All I have is that topline result. If I can get the pollster, I'll let you know. Bowers is saying that this is an independent poll, not an internal.
RI-GOV: Gov. Carcieri (R) 50%, Fogarty (D) 34% [GOP]
This might be the most disappointing poll of the day. Late summer polling showed this race as a toss-up, but three polls in a row have shown this race heading in the direction of the incumbent. As a state official instead of a federal one, it will be tougher to link Carcieri with Bush, whose job approval is under 30% here, according to this Mason-Dixon poll.
RI-SEN: Whitehouse (D) 42%, Sen. Chafee (R) 41% [Neutral]
Bush, however, can and will be hung around the neck of liberal Republican Lincoln Chafee, which is probably why the fairly popular Chafee is trailing state AG Sheldon Whitehouse in this Mason-Dixon poll. This is still perilous territory for Chafee, and a Whitehouse win would no longer be classified as a major upset.
TN-GOV: Gov. Bredesen (D) 63%, Bryson (R) 28% [Neutral]
With so much attention being paid to the Senate race here, there is scant attention paid on the governor's race. The race may not deserve much attention, if this Rasmussen poll is to be believed. Bredesen is on cruise control, and the question now is whether he will try to help Harold Ford Jr across the finish line.
TN-SEN: Ford Jr (D) 48%, Corker (R) 43% [Dem]
This is quickly becoming 2006's biggest upset in the making. For the fourth or fifth straight poll, Ford gains ground as Corker continues to struggle, according to Rasmussen. If Ford can close the deal, he will be the first African-American senator in the South since the 1870s.
UT-01: Rep. Bishop (R) 62%, Olsen (D) 20% [Neutral]
Jones and Associates polls the state again, and finds 1st district Republican Rep. Rob Bishop in total control of this race.
UT-02: Rep. Matheson (D) 60%, Christensen (R) 24% [Neutral]
Remember when Jim Matheson was perpetually endangered? If this poll by Jones and Associates is legit, those days appear to be over. Matheson goes into the final month with a commanding lead over state Rep. LeVar Christensen.
VA-SEN: Sen. Allen (R) 49%, Webb (D) 43% [Neutral]
This Rasmussen poll establishes some interesting subtext to this election. According to Rasmussen, Allen is struggling, but the attention on his racial history might actually be spawning a backlash. According to Rasmussen (caveat: A GOP pollster at one point), Virginia voters think there is too much attention being devoted to the story.
WA-SEN: Sen. Cantwell (D) 50%, McGavick (R) 40% [Neutral]
This race, after tightening and then retreating, has settled into a very predictable pattern, with the Democratic incumbent hanging on to a lead of 9-10 points. Mike McGavick cannot seem to close, and time is beginning to run out.
It is fair to say that more numbers will be coming to us as the election draws near. Tomorrow we should see our first sets of numbers in the post-Predatorgate era. Look forward to bringing those here tomorrow. Same time, same station.....and, as always, rec it if you liked it!!