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The decisive final quarter of Election 2006 begins with a gen-u-ine salacious scandal, and an avalanche of bad news for the majority so deep you hope voters can get through it all without suffering from a severe case of outrage fatigue.

No national polls today, and the Rasmussen national tracking survey, surprisingly shows a slight uptick for George W. Bush today, as he creeps up to 41% job approval. Meanwhile, there are new numbers in a total of 25 individual races today, with some good news to be found in places. Today, FTP includes a new feature, a momentum meter, which will tell you (the dear reader) whether or not the poll shows an improvement for the Democrats, a decline, or neutral momentum. Follow me below the fold for the numbers....

CA GOV (2 polls averaged): Gov. Schwarzenegger (R) 47.5%, Angelides 34.5% [Neutral]
Two new polls today, by Mason-Dixon and San Jose State University, show a basic flatline in the CA governors race, as incumbent Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger continues to lead Democrat Phil Angelides by 13 points. Slightly better than other recent polls, but not enough to call it momentum. Although, two small spurts of hope for Democrats: (a) Angelides should hit the air in earnest soon, and (b) Schwarzenegger is still not beloved, his job approval is STILL under 50%.

CA 11: McNerney (D) 48%, Rep. Pombo (R) 46% [Neutral]
This is a Democratic firm (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner), polling for an environmental interest group. An earlier poll by the same pollster had the race at four points for McNerney. This is a race that is BADLY needing a poll by a neutral agency.

CO-04: Rep. Musgrave (R) 42%, Paccione (D) 42% [Dems] Just diaried below, an internal poll for the Paccione campaign has the race tied. We'll see what the two independent pollsters in the race (MajorityWatch and SUSA) have to say on the topic.

CT-04: Rep. Shays (R) 46%, Farrell (D) 41% [Dem Momentum]
This is an independent poll, conducted by the University of Connecticut. A previous independent poll had the race at seven points (49-42). The farther from 50% Shays gets, the worse things get for Shays.

CT-05: Rep. Johnson (R) 42%, C. Murphy (D) 42% [Dems]
A new internal poll by Westhill takes longtime Rep. Nancy Johnson out of the lead for the first time. However, it IS an internal poll, so enjoy with your finest salt.

FL-SEN: Sen. Nelson (D) 58%, Harris (R) 31% [Dems]
Zogby, who yesterday gave Charlie Crist a 21-point lead, gives some love to the Democrats today, confirming the substantial hole that Katherine Harris finds herself in a month away from the election.

FL-16: Mahoney (D) 50%, Rep. Foley (R) 43% [Dems] The Majority Watch series decided to jump into this burgeoning race, and their first, independent, poll shows Democrat Tim Mahoney with a seven-point edge over Mark Foley/Joe Negron. No word on whether they apprised respondents of the switcheroo on the Republican side of the ballot.

GA-GOV: Gov. Perdue (R) 53%, Taylor (D) 34% [GOP]
A race many Democrats saw as a longshot is quickly degenerating into a no-shot. Taylor's campaign is destitute, and Perdue starts with a double-digit cushion, as confirmed by this latest poll by Mason-Dixon.

IA-04: Rep. Latham (R) 48%, Spencer (D) 37% [Dems]
This is considered Democratic momentum only because this is considerably closer than the 2004 race was here in the Iowa 4th. However, the usual cautionary note: this is an internal poll, conducted for the Spencer campaign (done by Momentum Analysis, for those who like to know thine pollster).

MD-GOV: O'Malley (D) 47%, Gov. Ehrlich (R) 43% [GOP]
A slight movement toward the incumbent in this latest poll by Mason-Dixon. However, any time an incumbent is down, and sitting on 43%, he ought not be considered a favorite, or even money, for that matter.

MD-SEN: Cardin (D) 47%, Steele (R) 41% [GOP]
In fairness, this is pretty close to neutral momentum, as the two previous polls had the race at 11 and 7 points, respectively. This Mason-Dixon poll confirms a solid, but not insurmountable, lead for Cardin. Interestingly, Steele has higher positives than Cardin, but also considerably higher negatives.

MO-SEN: Sen. Talent (R) 43%, McCaskill (D) 43% [Neutral]
I'll call it now--barring a major news event, this will be the closest Senate race in America this year. No poll has shown either candidate with a lead outside the margin of error, and this dead heat from Mason-Dixon is no exception. 13% undecideds, if traditional maxims hold, has to work in McCaskill's favor.

NJ-SEN: Sen. Menendez (D) 44%, Kean (R) 41% [Dems]
This is the second poll released in the past three days to show a Menendez lead, albeit a small one. Mason-Dixon gives us this one, and shows that Kean may be hurt by Bush's anemic job approval in the state (37%).

NM-GOV: Gov. Richardson (D) 60%, Dendahl (R) 28% [Dems]
YAAAWN....STRETTTCH....Bill Richardson is poised to not only win this gubernatorial race, he is poised to dominate it. This latest Albuquerque Journal poll gives him a 32-point edge. Is Des Moines the next stop for Governor Richardson?

PA-GOV: Gov. Rendell (D) 54%, Swann (R) 37% [Neutral]
There was a time where this really seemed like it would be a race. Swann's campaign has never really caught fire, and Rendell has enjoyed a renaissance of sorts (his job approval was surprisingly high in this Mason-Dixon poll). A series of double-digit leads have rendered this race nearly decided.

PA-SEN: Casey (D) 49%, Sen. Santorum (R) 40% [GOP]
Some GOP spinners are spinning this as a shift. The only reason I have it listed as GOP momentum is that this Mason-Dixon survey is slightly less optimistic for the Democrat than last week's polls. That having been said, a butt-kicking is still a butt-kicking, and this race seems to have solidified with the incumbent trailing by 8-14 points.

PA-10: Carney (D) 47%, Rep. Sherwood (R) 39% [Dems] Just caught this one off MyDD, and I don't have any further information. All I have is that topline result. If I can get the pollster, I'll let you know. Bowers is saying that this is an independent poll, not an internal.

RI-GOV: Gov. Carcieri (R) 50%, Fogarty (D) 34% [GOP]
This might be the most disappointing poll of the day. Late summer polling showed this race as a toss-up, but three polls in a row have shown this race heading in the direction of the incumbent. As a state official instead of a federal one, it will be tougher to link Carcieri with Bush, whose job approval is under 30% here, according to this Mason-Dixon poll.

RI-SEN: Whitehouse (D) 42%, Sen. Chafee (R) 41% [Neutral]
Bush, however, can and will be hung around the neck of liberal Republican Lincoln Chafee, which is probably why the fairly popular Chafee is trailing state AG Sheldon Whitehouse in this Mason-Dixon poll. This is still perilous territory for Chafee, and a Whitehouse win would no longer be classified as a major upset.

TN-GOV: Gov. Bredesen (D) 63%, Bryson (R) 28% [Neutral]
With so much attention being paid to the Senate race here, there is scant attention paid on the governor's race. The race may not deserve much attention, if this Rasmussen poll is to be believed. Bredesen is on cruise control, and the question now is whether he will try to help Harold Ford Jr across the finish line.

TN-SEN: Ford Jr (D) 48%, Corker (R) 43% [Dem]
This is quickly becoming 2006's biggest upset in the making. For the fourth or fifth straight poll, Ford gains ground as Corker continues to struggle, according to Rasmussen. If Ford can close the deal, he will be the first African-American senator in the South since the 1870s.

UT-01: Rep. Bishop (R) 62%, Olsen (D) 20% [Neutral]
Jones and Associates polls the state again, and finds 1st district Republican Rep. Rob Bishop in total control of this race.

UT-02: Rep. Matheson (D) 60%, Christensen (R) 24% [Neutral]
Remember when Jim Matheson was perpetually endangered? If this poll by Jones and Associates is legit, those days appear to be over. Matheson goes into the final month with a commanding lead over state Rep. LeVar Christensen.

VA-SEN: Sen. Allen (R) 49%, Webb (D) 43% [Neutral]
This Rasmussen poll establishes some interesting subtext to this election. According to Rasmussen, Allen is struggling, but the attention on his racial history might actually be spawning a backlash. According to Rasmussen (caveat: A GOP pollster at one point), Virginia voters think there is too much attention being devoted to the story.

WA-SEN: Sen. Cantwell (D) 50%, McGavick (R) 40% [Neutral]
This race, after tightening and then retreating, has settled into a very predictable pattern, with the Democratic incumbent hanging on to a lead of 9-10 points. Mike McGavick cannot seem to close, and time is beginning to run out.

It is fair to say that more numbers will be coming to us as the election draws near. Tomorrow we should see our first sets of numbers in the post-Predatorgate era. Look forward to bringing those here tomorrow. Same time, same station.....and, as always, rec it if you liked it!!

Originally posted to Steve Singiser on Mon Oct 02, 2006 at 05:58 PM PDT.


The Most Important State For Democratic Majorities In November Is....

6%7 votes
17%18 votes
0%1 votes
11%12 votes
3%4 votes
27%28 votes
27%28 votes
4%5 votes

| 103 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tips, Recs, Comments, Love, Hate.... (29+ / 0-)

    Happy Monday, All!!!

    I'll be around in between dinner, the kids, and Monday Night Football...see ya soon.

    "It. Is. About. Winning."

    by Steve Singiser on Mon Oct 02, 2006 at 05:57:57 PM PDT

  •  I think IL, IN, and PA are all three (7+ / 0-)

    pretty important...if we can sweep those and take Wilson's seat, Foley's seat, and DeLay's old seat, that should be our 15...I think (check my math...I'm notoriously bad at it).

    Good summary of the polls though, thanks.

  •  CA-11 Pombo v. McNerney (5+ / 0-)

    The poll in CA-11 is extremely good news, not just a "neutral."  The earlier poll was taken in early May, long before the primary.  Not a real fair gauge for a look at momentum.

    As of 6/30, Pombo had raised 2.4 million and had 939,000 cash on hand.  As of 6/30, McNerney had raised 450,000 and had 151,000 cash on hand.  Since 6/30, the RNCC has spent over $400,000 on the race while the DCCC has spent zero.

    This is not only a "lean R" district, but all of those who rate the race, give Pombo an edge.  Sabato and Cook each rate it as "likely Rep" and the Hotline has it in the 40's.   On this site, superribbie combined all ratings by others and put CA-11 as #54 in likelihood of changing parties.

    And the poll has McNerney leading Pombo.  Not only that, but McNerney raised at least $650,000 in the last three months alone.  This is VERY GOOD news for the whole country.  

    •  Hilltopper... (0+ / 0-)

      It is neutral, because the only polling in the race had yielded a comparable result. This is why I said this is a race just begging for an independent poll. A lot of people in the political community have a tendency to ignore sponsored polls, with good reason (they are almost always far too complimentary of the sponsoring candidate).

      A skeptic could argue, for example, that GQR has polled this race 15 times since May, and had Pombo leading easily until this poll.

      I want to see an independent poll.

      "It. Is. About. Winning."

      by Steve Singiser on Mon Oct 02, 2006 at 06:58:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Pombo's camp has done a poll or 2 of their own (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Steve Singiser

        but haven't released results publicly. Instead, the RNCC has suddenly infused this money, as hilltopper says, to a 'safe' or 'lean Republican' district. I think this speaks to the accuracy of this Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund sponsored poll - even if DWAF IS friendly to McNerney. After all, even they want to know if they are spending their money wisely. Which, turns out, they are!

        The key to world peace is not that we protect ourselves from them, but that we protect them... from ourselves.

        by JohnMac on Mon Oct 02, 2006 at 08:39:44 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  CA-11 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Steve Singiser

        I understand that it is "neutral" under your methodology, but I think it is not fair to compare such an out of date poll and ignore all else.  

        I would love to see an independent poll too, but we won't.  

  •  great job (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RunawayRose, Steve Singiser

    thanks for the work!

  •  Happy days are almost here again? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    Great diary.  Good news all over, especially in CA-11.  And, at the risk of sounding Edgar Allen Poe-ish, if there's one person on earth who really deserves to be buried alive, it's Katherine Harris!

  •  Control of the House looking pretty good (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    I count 3 seats that are pretty safe pickups:

    TX-22, where Nick Lampson (D) will dominate an underfunded write-in candidate.

    FL-16, where wealthy Tim Mahoney (D) will step up his campaign now that the seat is his for the taking.

    AZ-08, where the NRCC has abandoned divisive, underfunded candidate Randy Graf (R), and state senator Gabrielle Giffords (D) holds leads of over 20% in some polls.

    I would also rate 5 seats as strongly leaning our way, although the deal isn't done yet:

    CO-07, where former state senator Ed Perlmutter (D) has a large lead over Rick O'Donnell (R) for Bob Beauprez's open seat, which already leans Democratic.  Beauprez's campaign is imploding statewide and in a year like this the seat should be ours.

    IN-08, where Brad Ellsworth (D) has had leads in every poll, and much more money than John Hostettler (R).

    IN-09, where Baron Hill (D) will probably take back the seat that Mike Sodrel (R) barely took from him.  Polls show a large Hill lead.

    IA-01, where Bruce Braley (D) leads Mike Whalen (R) for the open, Dem-leaning seat of Jim Nussle.

    PA-06, where Lois Murphy (D) is back for a rematch with Jim Gerlach (R), who she almost beat in 2004.  With the district moving even further to the left, and given Murphy's better fundraising, this is hers to lose.

    There are also 6 seats where we have a slim advantage (CT-02, CT-04, KY-04, NM-01, NY-24, NC-11) and at least 10 more that are pure tossups...and if the wave is huge, another 20-30 seats that are in play.

    And not one of our House incumbents seems to be in any real danger.

    •  Nicely Analyzed, Skaje... (0+ / 0-)

      I would add PA-10 as a seat where we hold a narrow advantage, as well as IN-02, as multiple independent polls have confirmed the GOP incumbent trailing.

      I do quibble with "not one of our House incumbents seems to be in any real danger." Melissa Bean (IL-08) is only up three in the only independent survey out of this district, and I still have big fears about Charlie Melancon in Louisiana-03. I just don't know how you can read a district that has been changed as fundamentally as that one has.....

      "It. Is. About. Winning."

      by Steve Singiser on Mon Oct 02, 2006 at 07:34:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  FL-Gov Davis Riding the Wave (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    of the perfect storm in Florida Politics.
    There has been bad news on the polls for Dem Governor candidate Jim Davis, but that "perfect storm" has just formed in Florida.

    Jim Davis is launching his first two general elction TV spots today.  The innovative 15 second spots will be airing twice as often as 30 second spots.  They are clear, concise and to the point.  They paint a stark contrast between Davis and Crist on the issues most important to Floridians.  And Jim Davis is on the side of the majority of voters on the issues.

    I'll be posting a diary today to go into more detail, but the Foley scandal keeps rolling like an avalanche down the hill that is getting ready to bury R candidate Charlie Crist.  I'd love to see an independent poll that is done say over Thursday and Friday this week and published in major newspapers in Florida on Sunday.

    That double digit lead of Good Time Charlie Crist is going to go up in a puff of smoke from the lightning bolt that is about to strike.

    You can't govern if you can't win.

    by gatordem on Tue Oct 03, 2006 at 04:01:06 AM PDT

  •  IA-04 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    I know this district is a long-shot but Dr. Spencer seems to be a pretty good candidate. My Mom lives in Ames and she and her friends have been working for Spencer. She recounted to me recently that some younger operatives with campaign experience (for losing races, of course) have been brought in and were ruffling feathers among the volunteers. She said that supporters in former blue collar large town/small cities like Fort Dodge and Marshaltown were not receiving basic campaign info, signs, door hangers so it fell to her 80+ year-old friend to drive some of this stuff up.

    Just a tip the kids with West Wing dreams in their heads: don't write off your core supporters because a) they are old (in a state with one of the highest proportions of seniors) b) they are quiet, a.k.a. keeping their own counsel and not shooting their mouths off, and c) they have a few ideas of their own -- they've been working on campaigns since before you were born. I dare say they are probably 100 times better at organization as well.

  •  PA-04 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    This is a race we can win.  Hart is a Rubber Stamp friend of Santorum and Delay, and there are 55,000 more dems than rethugs in the district.   Here's more info

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