Good morning, everyone.
I know some of you are true believers in the predictive ability of futures markets like the Iowa Electronic Markets and Tradesports. Some of you are skeptics. Whatever your feelings, the trends look good right now. Here's a brief summary.
Iowa is showing a large sell-off of GOP stocks. In the general Congressional category (will the GOP hold both houses), the stock plummeted from 59 cents to less than 40 cents. It cashes out at $1.00 if the prediction is true.
In the more specific categories of the Senate and House only, the news is similar but less dramatic.
In Senate predictions, the GOP is still strongly favored to hold the chamber. However, the "Senate/GOP Gain" stock has plummeted from 27 cents to pennies. ($1 cash-out if true) Bettors simply do not believe in a net pickup possibility. The "Senate/Dem Control" stock is still cheap at about 25 cents, but it has gained at least 10 cents this week.
In the House, a dramatic turnaround. There has been a total sell-off of the "House/GOP Gain" stock. And the "House/Dem Control" and "House/GOP Control" shares have traded places, with bettors now awarding Democrats control of the House (stock at 52 cents/37 cents last week) and bad news for the GOP (stock at 45 cents/57 cents last week). Previously, the trend lines had been going the Republican way for the last three weeks.
Over at Tradesports, the category of "GOP control of Congress" offers bettors "GOP control of the House" at a lackluster 44 cents and "GOP control of the Senate" at 72 cents. "GOP control of the House" was at 60 cents last week.
All stocks for both markets cash out at $1.00 if a correct prediction, and $0.00 if incorrect.
I DO NOT ENDORSE EITHER MARKET, NOR DO I ADVISE ANYONE TO PLACE MONEY OR BETS WITH EITHER ONE.