For the second day, there is an eerie silence from Pollster-land, as a dearth of surveys makes for a truncated edition of following the polls. Over at MyDD,
Chris Bowers has his own take on the subject, which can be boiled down to a simple premise: pollsters are more eager when Bush is doing well, because that is their preferred narrative.
My take on his interesting hypothesis, plus new numbers in 20 individual races, below the fold.
First, on the Chris Bowers post in MyDD. I think his take is interesting on the whole, and has some relevancy. For sure, the news community (as well as the pundit class) practically reached the big "O" when that solitary Gallup poll came out two weeks ago, and then gave scant treatment to the polls that followed, all of which showed Democrats up between 9-14 points among likely voters. It is hard to read that as anything other than embracing an outlier.
However, the dearth of polls this particular week did not shock me. The MAF54 scandal is a game-changer, and I suspect that anybody that had polls in the field this weekend scrapped them, since they were pretty useless. My guess is that the nationals began to poll at the start of this week, and then continued onward. Ergo, we should see a good number of national polls toward the end of this week. If I am wrong, the "only poll when Bush is surging" narrative makes sense.
After all, you would do well over the next 34 days to remember the words of one of the better pundits in the game, Stuart Rothenberg.
"...Beware of all national surges. And remember: Journalists always want a horse race, not a blowout.
I've been doing this long enough to know that in pretty much every election cycle, there is talk, invariably sometime in October, that one party or the other is "surging." In 1994, for example, the last time a truly significant partisan wave hit, there were reports in October of a Democratic surge."
Useful words, because you have to know we have not seen the last of the "GOP Major Comeback" narrative.
For today, though, that narrative would be hard to come by. The big polling story is the Zogby tracking of 15 competitive GOP-held House seats. They make up the bulk of FTP today, and they bring fairly dire news to the GOP. They only lead in four of the fifteen, and one of their four leads contradicts every other public opinion poll conducted to date.
Remember, the indications of [Dems], [GOP], and [Neutral] refer to the relative momentum of the race, given how this poll compares to its contemporaries.
Batter up!!
AZ-05: Mitchell (D) 40%, Rep. Hayworth (R) 37% [Dems]
CAVEAT: This is an internal poll, taken last month by Grove Insight. Obviously, this was meant to contradict last week's GOP-internal poll which had Hayworth up by 14%. The truth in this one? Hayworth, but probably within the margin of error. This race ain't over...by a longshot.
AZ-08: Giffords (D) 45%, Graf (R) 37% [GOP]
Honestly, this first poll of the Zogby series is a little hard to believe, given that even Republican polls in the district have this race more lopsided. Either way, however, Giffords is well out in front, and looks to be a lock for November, especially given her fundraising edge.
CO-07: Perlmutter (D) 45%, O'Donnell (R) 34% [Neutral]
This Zogby poll gets tagged with neutral momentum because while it is six points closer than the most recent poll by SUSA, it is a wider margin than any other previous public poll. It also seems to solidify this race as a double-digit Perlmutter lead. Colorado could be the nail in the GOP coffin on Election Day.
CT-SEN: Sen. Lieberman (CfL) 50%, Lamont (D) 40% [Neutral]
In this case, neutral momentum is bad, bad news. Rasmussen had been one of the pollsters consistently identifying this as a close race. Now, they have the Lieberman lead at ten. Lamont needs something to change the dynamic, and with Lieberman's bizarre defense of Republican Speaker Dennis Hastert today, he might have just gotten it.
CT-02: Rep. Simmons (R) 44%, Courtney (D) 41% [GOP]
The last public polls in this race gave Courtney the slightest of edges. So this Zogby poll shows some movement in Simmons' direction. This one will be an absolute tossup. An incumbent under 50%, as we all know, cannot consider himself very secure.
CT-04: Farrell (D) 46%, Rep. Shays (R) 41% [Dems]
This one, part of the Zogby series, is something of a shocker. It is also the first public poll yet to give Farrell a lead. Shays is getting hit hard for his frequent trips to Iraq, a war he is steadfast in defending but his district is opposing in greater and greater numbers. Another election day coin-flip.
CT-05: Rep. Johnson 52%, C. Murphy (D) 42% [GOP]
CAVEAT: This American Viewpoint poll was conducted on behalf of Johnson and the NRCC. It is obviously out there to deflect yesterday's poll from Democrat Chris Murphy, who had the race even. Truth, again, lies somewhere in between.
IL-06: Duckworth (D) 43%, Roskam (R) 38% [Dems]
This Zogby poll, to me, is among the most interesting. Even Duckworth's own polling had her tied a few weeks back. However, this is the first poll since Roskam made the outrageous assertion about Duckworth (an amputee, courtesy of the Iraqi War) wanting to "cut and run" from Iraq. Perhaps that abhorrent lack of sensitivity can account for this mini-surge for Duckworth.
IN-02: Donnelly (D) 48.5%, Chocola (R) 39% [Dems]
I think it can be said now, with four public polls in the books: Chris Chocola is now the underdog in his re-election campaign. We now have four polls (this Zogby poll being the most recent) with Donnelly leading by six or more points. Anti-GOP sentiment is evidently strong in the Hoosier state.
IN-09: Hill (D) 46%, Rep. Sodrel (R) 38% [Neutral]
See Indiana 02. The anti-Republican sentiment in Indiana is palpable, and Zogby confirms it. Hill narrowly lost in a good GOP year. Thus, him losing in THIS year would have to be considered an upset.
IA-01: Whalen (R) 47%, Braley (D) 34% [GOP]
Well, we know that one-in-20 polls are simply off. This Zogby poll would seem to be the one, absent a supporting survey. Two other independent polls had this pretty solidly in Braley's favor. Perhaps they reversed the numbers inadvertently??
KY 04: Rep. Davis (R) 42%, Lucas (D) 36% [GOP]
This Zogby poll is believable, given the GOP lean of the district, but strange. How is it possible that the race with the two most recognizable names (current and former Rep.) has the most undecideds? Peculiar.
MN 06: Bachmann (R) 46%, Wetterling (D) 43% [Dems]
This Zogby poll is actually fairly good news for Wetterling, as previous public polls had this race out beyond 6 points. And, with the child abuse scandal in the capital, Wetterling becomes a front-line player: she will apparently give the Dem response to the presidential address this weekend.
MO-SEN: McCaskill (D) 47%, Sen. Talent (D) 46% [Dems]
This race in the Show-Me State shows no sign of relinquishing its crown as the closest Senate race in the nation, as confirmed by this Rasmussen poll.
NM-01: Madrid (D) 50%, Rep. Wilson (R) 40% [Dems]
This race has been a coinflip for months, so this Zogby poll strikes me as a bit of an outlier as well. However, Wilson is a "page board" member, so perhaps MAF54-gate has had a special effect on her numbers. Need another poll to confirm.
NY-GOV: Spitzer (D) 73%, Faso (R) 21% [Dems]
This Quinnipiac poll confirms what we already knew: Spitzer is pretty much unbeatable here. Might this have an effect on upstate turnout. Mssrs. Maffei, Davis, Arcuri, Hall, and Massa hope so!!
NC-11: Shuler (D) 51%, Rep. Taylor (R) 40% [Dems]
The sheer margin of this Zogby poll is a little hard to believe, but it is worth noting that we have not seen a poll with a Taylor lead all year long. Is Taylor now the underdog in this district he has held with relative ease for eight terms??
OH-SEN: Brown (D) 49%, Sen. DeWine (R) 41% [Dems]
The trend lines for this Rasmussen poll are just awful for the incumbent. He has been inexorably losing ground all summer and fall, a few more points with each poll. Apparently, in the Ohio River Valley, all is not well for the GOP.
OH-18: Space (D) 45%, Padgett (R) 35.5% [Dems]
So much for the theory that not having Bob Ney to kick around was going to end any hope of a Zack Space win here in the Ohio-18th. It is hard to start a major-league House campaign from scratch, and Padgett is being forced to play catchup with a national party apparatus being forced to play defense everywhere. A few more polls like this one by Zogby, and they may cut her loose like they did to Randy Graf out west.
PA 06: Murphy (D) 43%, Gerlach (R) 41% [Dems]
If my eyes do not deceive me, this would appear to be another Public Opinion Strategies poll getting discredited. Last week's POS poll (which gave Gerlach a twelve point edge) is contradicted, and hard, by today's Zogby poll.
VA 02: Kellam (D) 46%, Rep. Drake (R) 42% [Dems]
This one should not be overlooked. Zogby is quick to note that the bulk of this polling was at the break of the Foley scandal, but it was also in the midst of a mini-scandal in this district, where Democrat Phil Kellam revealed an assault conviction 28 years ago, when he had a physical altercation with a woman after a traffic dispute. Republicans licked their chops, but this Zogby poll shows that this is not the death blow the Drake camp was praying for.
Well, that closes the book on another FTP. Same time tomorrow (maybe earlier)...and hopefully, with a raft of new numbers. Happy Wednesday, and as always, "rec it if you liked it!"