NPR's Political Junkie, Ken Rudin, has Selden Spencer's campaign button on
display in this week's column. Calling
Spencer a "long shot," Rudin says: "Latham has never shown any signs of vulnerability in the past, but an internal Spencer poll had him trailing by 11 points -- with Latham under 50 percent."
Latham is more vulnerable than Rudin's brief analysis suggests.
Based on 2000 and 2004 Presidential voting, the district has a PVI of +0.4 D, making the Fourth District a slightly Democratic district with a GOP congressman. A Momentum Analysis poll conducted September 15-18, in the middle of the Bush security offensive, found that only 35% said they would vote to re-elect Latham, 21% would replace him, and 17% were undecided. His approval rating is only 40%, which is into vulnerable territory for an incumbent.
Spencer is on the offensive over the GOP leadership/sex scandal, and will soon debate Latham. Although he has been hampered by lack of attention from the national party and the money that goes with it, this district may vote for change in November. A purple district like this, with a GOP incumbent, is a good measure of the relative strengths of the parties in this election.