After Thursday's plethora of national polling, there is a predictable calm on this Friday. Rasmussen tracking keeps the Bush approval at 40%, and no other national surveys have hit as of yet.
Meanwhile, Gallup gave us a delicious late-night treat late yesterday (after the Thursday FTP had already fallen away). So, we will include that in today's Following the Polls, for those who missed them. Also, we see numbers in a total of 19 individual races. Time to head below the fold....
As always, a reminder: the party indicator after the polling data that says [Dems], [GOP], or [Neutral] is meant to indicate who shows improvement from this poll relative to other, recent, polling data.
So...with that in mind, let us begin.....
AZ-GOV: Gov. Napolitano (D) 58%, Munsil (R) 24% [Dems]
Behavior Research, who gave us tightening numbers in the AZ Senate race yesterday, give us a gubernatorial blowout in today's poll. Napolitano has high job approval, and she is clearly drawing in significant Republican and Independent support. She is now a lock for re-election, barring some grand scandal in the waning hours.
FL-13: Jennings (D) 50%, Buchanan (R) 38% [Dems]
CAVEAT: This is an internal poll, done by Hamilton-Beattie for the Jennings campaign. That having been said, even internals are not usually off by double-digits. One has to really begin to wonder the damage that a contentious Republican primary must have done to the prohibitive front-runner here, GOP auto dealer Vern Buchanan. He should be up double digits in this district. Is there some Katherine Harris fatigue at work here as well??!!??
IA-GOV: Nussle (R) 45%, Culver (D) 44% [GOP]
A solitary poll of concern for the Democrats in an otherwise good polling day. Republican Congressman Jim Nussle is simply not going away, the best efforts of Iowa Democrats and Sec. of State Chet Culver to the contrary. This is a pure coin-flip at this point.
MA-GOV: Patrick (D) 49%, Healey (R) 28% [Neutral]
This poll out today from Suffolk University cannot be considered good news for GOP Lt. Governor Kerry Healey. Despite Democratic front-runner Deval Patrick being mired in the first mini-scandal of his campaign (over legal assistance he gave two decades ago to a convicted rapist), his advantage has only budged slightly from several recent polls placing his lead in the mid-20s. With independent candidates in the high-single digits, Patrick can win this election by merely holding on to the 49% of the vote he has right now. Curiously, though, Suffolk did two versions of the poll--one which prominent Indie candidate Christy Mihos in the race, and one without. Is there some rumor in the Commonwealth that Mihos is about to drop out. Oh, and for those who care, Patrick's lead gets cut to 17 with Mihos out of the race, but he moves above the 50% threshold
MD-GOV: O'Malley (D) 53%, Gov. Ehrlich (R) 41% [Dems]
This poll, part of the Gallup series released late Thursday evening, underscores a particular problem for the incumbent. He is not unpopular, but he belongs to the wrong party, in the wrong state, in the wrong year. In this strictest sense, he shares a fate not dissimilar from the late and beloved Texas Gov. Ann Richards, who had approval ratings well above the 50% danger zone, but still failed to earn re-election. It is increasingly looking like the same fight will befall Ehrlich, as Democrat Martin O'Malley might make the rare jump from the Baltimore mayors office to the governors mansion.
MD-SEN: Cardin (D) 54%, Steele (R) 39% [Dems]
Seeing this Gallup poll begins to make it obvious why Steele rushed out a poll yesterday showing him losing, albeit by only a four-point margin. Gallup has Steele getting crushed, which like Governor Ehrlich, is probably more a testament to how bad it is for Republicans this year in blue states than it is a tribute to the charisma of Democrat Ben Cardin.
MI-GOV: Gov. Granholm (D) 46%, DeVos (R) 40% [Neutral]
It seems indisputable at this point to say that Jennifer Granholm is once again a favorite, albeit a very slight one, to earn re-election. What's more, the same poll (by Epic-MRA) showed that Michigan voters who turned into their televised debate earlier this week thought the Granholm clearly won the debate. Of course, if debate champions were automatically elected, we'd have President Kerry. And President Gore....
MI-SEN: Sen. Stabenow (D) 48%, Bouchard (R) 35% [GOP]
This poll (also by Epic/MRA) gets the GOP momentum tag only because the two previous polls here had Bouchard getting trashed by 17 and 21 points, respectively. Nevertheless, Bouchard is way down, and it appears that his shot to make this a race has come and gone. Stabenow, having won this seat by virtue of an October surge, is unlikely to fall asleep on Bouchard. She is now a double-digit favorite to be re-elected to the US Senate.
MN-GOV: Hatch (D) 50%, Gov. Pawlenty (R) 46% [Dems]
These numbers, from Rasmussen, only concern me for one reason--I was under the impression that there were independent candidates that were going to do quite well here. Clearly, Rasmussen did not include them in the polling. If they split the anti-incumbent vote, Pawlenty can possibly limp home with 46-48% of the vote.
MN-SEN: Klobuchar (D) 56%, Kennedy (R) 40% [Dems]
Wow. Remember when Mark Kennedy was seen as a lead-pipe cinch to pick up this seat from the disgraced Democrat Mark Dayton? Remember when people (me included, natch) kvetched about being left with a county prosecutor as our nominee? Whoops. Rasmussen confirms what pundits already knew--Democrat Amy Klobuchar is a solid favorite to hold this seat for the Dems over GOP Congressman Mark Kennedy.
MO-SEN: McCaskill (D) 48%, Sen. Talent (R) 45% [Dems]
Republicans in the Show-Me-State have to be very worried at this point that it has been awhile, a long while, since there was a poll in the field showing Talent leading in this race. You have to go back to the LAST Gallup poll in early September to find one. Gallup shows this one to be a toss-up, but one that ever-so-slightly edges to the challenger.
NJ-SEN: Sen. Menendez (D) 46%, Kean Jr (R) 43% [Neutral]
Several independent, nonpartisan polls have confirmed that the Kean surge in this race has abated, and that the incumbent Democrat has regained a small, but noticeable, edge in this race. Most pundits agree that three races are likely to decide the control of the US Senate: Missouri, New Jersey, and Tennessee. If the Democrats sweep, and this Gallup poll series says they might, they will be in the Senate majority.
RI-GOV: Gov. Carcieri (R) 47%, Fogarty (D) 46% [Dems]
Democrats would like to believe this one, but several other recent polls had Carcieri pulling away here, and so this one-point margin looks a touch sketchy. Sadly for Dems, this Gallup result might call into question the other Gallup poll in Rhode Island, which would be....
RI-SEN: Whitehouse (D) 50%, Sen. Chafee (R) 39% [Dems]
I think most political observers concede that Whitehouse probably has a lead on Chafee at this point. But...eleven points?? That seems a bit optimistic for the Democrats, as did the gubernatorial poll.
TN-GOV: Gov. Bredesen (D) 66%, Bryson (R) 26% [Dems]
Wow, I don't think anyone would be surprised by Bredesen dominating this race. But the margin (as we see here in this Gallup poll) is starting to become pretty heady. A Democrat leading by 40...in a red state like Tennessee? Impressive. Can Bredesen pull Harold Ford Jr across the finish line?
TN-SEN: Ford (D) 50%, Corker (R) 45% [Dems]
I am so ambivalent about this race. Ford seems to be surging, his ads are nothing short of terrific, and the polls (such as this Gallup poll) look very promising. But I remember that Gantt looked good against Helms, and I remember that Kirk looked good against Cornyn...is a state in the American South really prepared to elect an African-American man to statewide office? I hope so, but polls do not give me the comfort that they give me in other races.
VA-SEN: Sen. Allen (R) 48%, Webb (D) 45% [Dems]
This race is so volatile that the polls have been essentially a "yo-yo" for the past three weeks. This spin of the yo-yo, courtesy of Gallup, is in the direction of the Democrats, as James Webb moves back within the margin of error on Senator Allen.
WA-02: Rep. Larsen (D) 60%, Roulstone (R) 35% [Dems]
Gee, there was a time when the NRCC told us that this was one of their most prized recruits of the 2006 election, and that this race was one of their potential dark horses. This poll, the second from SurveyUSA showing the Democrat with a big lead, should dispel that notion. Roulstone has raised some money, but Larsen looks pretty bulletproof in turning this formerly red district (long held by Rep. Jack Metcalf) into a blue district.
WI-GOV: Gov. Doyle (D) 48%, Green (R) 42% [Neutral]
Democrats ought to be a little more nervous about this race than they are. Republican Congressman Mark Green is not going away, and he is staying right around 3-6 points behind. This Research 2000 poll is a couple of points closer than the last R2000 survey, but it is a slightly larger margin than we have seen recently here. This might be a rare GOP Election Day Upset, if Doyle does not put Green to bed...and fast.
SO...that will do it for today's round of tasty public-opinion goodness. Look for the weekend edition on Sunday. Tomorrow is all about family, fun, and football (and...in these parts...the Dodgers hoping Greg Maddux can keep them from circling the drain).
Happy Friday, all...see you in a couple of days. And as always: "rec it if you liked it."