The evenhanded Charlie Cook usually doesn't release his ratings changes more than once a week or two. However, Foleygate forced old Charlie and his associate, Amy Walter, to reevaluate the political landscape.
The Democrats gained substantially. On October 4, Cook had 18 Republican seats in the tossup category; today he's got 25 with no clear favorite.
RACES MOVING UP TO "TOSSUP":
FL-13 (Buchanan vs. Jennings): Normally one must take internal polls with more than a grain of salt, but Cook and Walter must see something in the numbers which show Jennings up twelve. Their conclusion is that the internal does not move the race all the way to our column, but to tossup because the polling firm, Hamilton and Beattie, is veritable. There were a couple of diaries mentioning FL-13 and how Buchanan lost ground after running an overly negative ad campaign. I'm still skeptical because if this seat goes our way, I could name about 40-45 others which are more easily in our column.
MN-6 (Bachmann vs. Wetterling): Along with FL-13, which is near the Foleygate mess geographically, Patty Wetterling gains a larger profile. On Saturday, she will give the Democratic response to the President's weekly address. Although no poll shows her in the lead, Cook must have some information which shows Wetterling tied or ahead to move the race in that fashion. Wetterling is using her vast experience as a child protection advocate to move into an even position at the minimum in this race.
NY-26 (Reynolds vs. Davis): This race moved all the way from the safe category to tossup. The penultimate poll taken in this race had Reynolds leading 45-43, with 8% going to the Green. With the Green off the ballot, Davis now leads 50-45. It will be interesting to see whether Foleygate actually affects Reynolds in future polls or the 45% he currently holds stays intact. For what it's worth, the press in upstate NY is grilling the NRCC chair.
PA-7 (Weldon vs. Sestak): The Franklin and Marshall poll showing a dead heat must have been enough evidence to move this race up. President Clinton recently visited Philadelphia and praised Sestak continuously. Although a lot of work will still need to be done to bump off the entrenched Weldon, the mo' is with Joe here. Rendell's machine in Philadelphia and Casey's coattails also couldn't hurt the old admiral.
PA-10 (Sherwood vs. Carney): I was surprised this wasn't considered a tossup three months ago. Sherwood only won 55% against a completely nonfunded opponent in the Republican primary after it was discovered he beat his mistress. Sherwood's unpopularity is confounded by the fact that a military man, Chris Carney, is an attractive choice making the sale to NE PA's conservative voters. Carney has held a lead ranging from 6-10 pts. Behind Gerlach's seat (PA-6), I consider this the second best pickup opportunity in Penn.
WA-8: (Reichert vs. Burner) Reichert's momentum in August, when he had a 13 pt. lead, is now lost. The RT Strategies poll showed Darcy leading by three, and another independent outfit had the race a virtual dead heat, with Reichert leading by two. A possible explanation for this could be found in Darcy's great fundraising and ad campaign and in the floundering Mike McGavick Senate campaign upticket. Our once endangered and oft criticized incumbent, Sen. Maria Cantwell, may turn out to have coattails in the end.
WI-8: (Gard vs. Kagen) Although Kagen survived a tough primary fight against Wall and Nusbaum on the Democratic side, polls in Cheesehead Country show him ahead of WI State Senate leader John Gard. Kagen can self-finance, and although this district leans conservative, expect this race to go down to the wire come Election Day. If we take this district, we're going to see a landslide (see FL-13 above).
RACES MOVING UP TO "LEANS REPUBLICAN":
CA-4: (Doolittle vs. Brown) A recent Dem internal poll showed Charlie Brown (not the cartoon character, but a real Fighting Dem) trailing corrupt incumbent John Doolittle 41-39. The Republican bigwigs, led by the President himself, needed to fly cross-country to raise funds for Doolittle. Although there is an R+11 PVI, moderate Republican Pete McCloskey has a little sway here and is actually campaigning for Brown.
CA-11: (Pombo vs. McNerney) The aforementioned McCloskey actually ran in the primary against incumbent Republican Richard Pombo to try and reclaim his old seat. Although he lost, he got a third of the vote and is persuading his supporters to cast their ballot for Jerry McNerney. The environment is a big issue here, and both McCloskey and McNerney have pounded Pombo on his abominable record. Two internal polls have been taken in this race, and McNerney leads both, but within the margin of error. My guess is that it's a deadlock, with maybe a tiny edge to the incumbent. Cook and Walter apparently see some momentum for McNerney.
CO-4: (Musgrave vs. Paccione) Musgrave won reelection with only 51% against Stan Matsunaka, with a Green on the ballot. This time, the Greens aren't as influential and a stronger candidate, Angie Paccione, emerged to take on the wingnut incumbent. Dem Internal polls show a dead heat, and the independent polls taken here show Musgrave with a slight lead. However, Bill Ritter is blowing out Bob Beauprez in the governor's race, and he might give Angie some needed coattails. A note of caution: I believe this race will get incredibly dirty before it's over because Musgrave is completely unscrupulous.
KY-2: (Lewis vs. Weaver) This race also comes all the way from the "safe category". Cook must have information we don't, because this district is HIGHLY conservative, with a PVI of R+13. I'd love it if any Kossack living in KY-2 can provide more info on this race. I know Gov. Fletcher is radioactive, but that can't be the only reason for the sudden change in rating.
NV-2: (Heller vs. Derby) I've noted before that Derby is a kick-ass candidate, and in this very Republican district, she's got money and competitiveness. Polls show Heller with only a slight lead. Maybe Derby can give some reverse-coattails to Jack Carter in the Senate race.
RACES MOVING TO "LIKELY REPUBLICAN":
NC-8: (Hayes vs. Kissell) You knew Kissell's gas giveaway for a dollar-twenty a gallon would work. Along with Hayes' cowardice on CAFTA which sent many of his constituents up a creek without a paddle, this race is now close. The latest Dem internal showed the race in a dead heat, which is closer than the six-point Hayes lead in the previous internal. Hayes is probably still ahead, but momentum lies with Kissell, who is coming off as an incredibly charismatic candidate.
PA-4: (Hart vs. Altmire) It was only a matter of time before Melissa Hart found herself in a difficult race in this Western PA swing district. Jason Altmire hasn't gone quietly into the night, and the latest Dem internal shows a four point lead for Hart. Money is a huge issue, as Altmire is being outspent 6 to 1, so he'll have to do it the old-fashioned way by pounding the pavement.
No Democratic races became more vulnerable in the interim.
This is an open thread for commentary on any House race.