With the testing of a nuclear weapon by North Korea how will its neighbors react. Is Japan now going to pursue the development of nuclear weapons? Will South Korea? Would Taiwan? Let's return to Japan and its new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who came to power 2 weeks ago with the retirement of Junichiro Koizumi. If you thought Koizumi was a conservative then here is a surprise: Shinzo Abe is even more conservative than he is. What are his policies concerning Japan's Self-Defense Forces and what will his reaction be to North Korea's nuclear weapons test?
After World War II and the defeat of Japan the Americans decided that the constitution of Japan would reflect not its military and imperial past but one of peace. All of Japans military forces have the words Self-Defense in front of them. Article nine of the constitution for example prohibits the deployment of its forces outside of the country. In fact one of its main missions as written into law is help is help the people in times of natural disaster or other civil emergency. After the invasion and occupation of Iraq President Bush asked if Japan would commit military forces to help in its reconstruction. In order to do this the Diet had to pass a special law which spelled out exactly what their mission was. This meant that those forces deployed to Iraq could only engage in rebuilding efforts thus by passing the restrictions of article nine because the involvement didn't include any kind of armed military engagements. But how things change when there is a change of leadership. Mr. Abe envisions a very different Japan one which he feels will have more influence on the worlds stage. How does he plan to do this? Prime Minister Abe formulated a set of policies that could change the political and military dynamic "North Korea not withstanding with its nuclear weapons test" of East Asia. What he wants to do is amend the Japanese Constitution. The changes he wants include dropping the Name Self-Defense from the names of its various military arms. Remove the restrictions of article nine which would allow Japan to become involved in say UN Peace Keeping efforts or other military operations such as the first Gulf War. .
As for the Japanese populace they are sharply divided on this issue. They divides seem to be generational with those over fifty more inclined towards these policy changes while people of my generation oppose them.
But the most important question still remains unanswered. Would Japan develop nuclear arms? Probably not considering it's the only country to ever have nuclear weapons used against it in a time of war. Japanese society at large would be so strongly against such a development that even if it were proposed pressure not only through public opinion but from Washington as well would preclude any such development from taking place.
Japan's reaction to North Korea's testing of a nuclear weapon will be to increase further the economic sanctions already in place stemming from July's missile launches and the abduction of its citizens in the late 1970's and early 1980's. Will they have any effect probably not as North Korea doesn't have a large volume of trade with Japan and the other countries in East Asia except for China and South Korea.