There are at least
9 Bush polls, polling at least into October, all of them under 40%.
NYT/CBS:
Mr. Bush's job approval has slipped to 34 percent, one of the lowest levels of his presidency, posing a complication for the White House as it seeks to send him out on the road to rally base voters. Mr. Bush's job approval rating has even slipped with his base: 75 percent of conservative Republicans approve of the way he has handled his job, compared with 96 percent in November 2004.
Bush was 37% mid September in the NYT/CBS poll, a 3 point drop. This makes Newsweek at 33% seem not such an outlier. And, in the WaPo/ABC poll, Bush is at 39 (was 42%). More choice bits, first ABC/WaPo:
Bush's approval ratings on Iraq are among the lowest of his presidency, with 35 percent approving and 64 percent disapproving; 54 percent strongly disapprove. On terrorism, long the president's strongest issue, a majority (53 percent) in the new poll said they disapprove of his performance. That is the worst rating Bush has received on his signature issue.
On the question of whether the war in Iraq has been worth fighting, 63 percent said no, the highest recorded during Bush's presidency. Only 51 percent agreed with the president's argument that Iraq is the central front in the global campaign against terrorism, the lowest of his presidency. Fifty percent of those surveyed said that, compared to Sept. 11, 2001, the country is safer today, but 42 percent, a new high, said the country is less safe.
Still, there is no significant support for withdrawing U.S. forces immediately. Half of those surveyed -- about the same percentage it has been throughout the year -- said they would like to see troop levels decrease. Despite the high casualties, only a fifth said they supported immediate withdrawal.
On Iraq, the Times is more blunt:
Mr. Bush clearly faces constraints as he seeks to address the public concerns about Iraq that have shrouded this midterm election: 83 percent of respondents thought that Mr. Bush was either hiding something or mostly lying when he discussed how the war in Iraq was going.
And here's the verdict in the TNT (taxes and terra) campaign that the RNC is spending millions on:
So far it appears that - at least nationally - Republicans have had little traction in pressing what have been their two biggest lines of attack against Democratic challengers this fall: taxes and terrorism. The poll found that 41 percent of respondents thought Republicans were stronger on handling terrorism, compared to 40 percent who named Democrats, a statistically insignificant difference. Before Labor Day, Republicans had a 42 percent to 34 percent edge on handling terrorism.
And in a month in which Republicans have sought to discredit Democratic challengers as advocates of big spending and high taxes, 52 percent of respondents said that Democrats will make the right decisions on how to spend taxpayers money.
Not much bang for the buck. Back to the WaPo for the Foley effect, very interesting results:
The Foley scandal has dominated the news over the past 10 days and the poll shows that Americans are reading and watching. Seven out of 10 said they are following the story "very" or "somewhat" closely. But only about two in 10 said the issue will be very important in their vote in November.
The political fallout is mixed. Almost two thirds say Republican leaders tried to cover up the scandal, but about the same percentage say they think Democratic leaders would have done the same. More than three of five say Democrats are criticizing Republican leaders for political advantage. Voters are evenly split over whether Speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) should step down from his post.
Understand that if 20% say it will be important for their vote, that's huge (and likely in one direction). And for those who wanted the election to be about something else, don't worry. It is. These polls tell us about the current political climate and not individual races. But they suggest Republicans are losing on the merits of the issues, and taxes and terra won't save them.