MD Democrats biggest worry: Will black voters show up?
Sun Oct 01, 2006 at 07:34:59 AM PDT
That's the headline on the front page of the Baltimore Sun this morning. I think it is an excellent and fair look at all the potential issues.
Bottom line: Although Cardin and O'Malley have comfortable leads in the polls, they are based on assumptions that one in five Maryland voters will be black.
If black voter turnout drops by 10% or 15% it hurts democratic candidates. (For O'Malley even more than Cardin.) And it is probably the only way team rethug: ehrlich or steele can win.
http://www.baltimoresun.com/...
Blacks make up about 29 percent of Maryland's population, according to the U.S. Census - the fifth-highest proportion in the country. A recent Sun poll shows that African-American voters still overwhelmingly support Democrats, although Ehrlich and Steele have made inroads.
The poll showed that O'Malley is leading Ehrlich among black voters, 71 percent to 16 percent. The margin for Rep. Benjamin L. Cardin against Steele is smaller, 65 percent to 24 percent. Ehrlich and O'Malley are white, though the mayor's running mate, Del. Anthony G. Brown, is black.
But the question for Democrats is not whether blacks will support their candidates but how many of them will vote, said Keith Haller, the president of Potomac Inc., which conducted the poll for The Sun.
The poll found both O'Malley and Cardin in the lead, but that conclusion - particularly for the mayor - rests on the assumption that nearly one in five voters will be black, Haller said.
That's about the proportion in previous gubernatorial elections, but Haller doubts that the numbers will be that high this year.
"If African-American turnout drops by 10 or 15 percent, it has a dramatic effect on the Democrats' prospects," he said.
There is a very interesting graphic in the paper which unfortunately I can't find online. So I will re-create...
"Minority Voting Patterns
Voter turnout during gubernatorial elections in Maryland's two majority-minority jurisdictions, Baltimore City and Prince George's County, is consistantly lower than the state-wide average. The year in which turnout in those jurisdictions was highest was 1998, when Democrats made attacks on the racial sensitivity of the Republican nominee.
1990- total MD turnout about* 55%. Balt. City about 38%. PG about 49%
1994 - total MD turnout about 61%. BC about 47%. PG about 53%.
1998 - total MD turnout about 61%. BC about 55%. PG about 58%.
2002 - total MD turnout about 61%. BC about 55%. PG about 53%."
* I have to use about because I don't have the real numbers. I am reading the chart and giving you approximations.
Ehrlich and other party leaders have also made the diversity of their ticket a central part of their appeal. At a GOP dinner last month, Ehrlich said the diversity on his ticket is real, not the "phony inclusiveness" that Democrats practice. His running mate, Disabilities Secretary Kristen Cox, who is blind, said the Republican ticket "represents the face of Maryland in a way no other party in the history of Maryland has."
Many political observers in the state's black community say low African-American turnout is responsible for Ehrlich's 2002 victory. While Ehrlich picked Steele as his running mate, Democrat Kathleen Kennedy Townsend passed over qualified blacks to pick a white man.
It is no coincidence that O'Malley picked Brown for his running mate, pairing himself with an up-and-coming leader from Prince George's County, the majority-black jurisdiction that is home to both Steele and the state's largest concentration of Democrats.
Brown has the potential to motivate black voters in Prince George's - but only if the party realizes how much work needs to be done there, said Davis, the committee chairman from the county.
"Anthony is somebody who the community is definitely proud of, and I think if he's prominently featured and given a prominent role, not just for his own [contest] but really for the other statewide races as well, I think he can be very beneficial to the party," Davis said. "But he can't do it alone."
The Republican response is that a black lieutenant governor nominee is yesterday's news. Members of the GOP often gloss over Brown in calling the Democratic ticket "four white guys," meaning O'Malley, Cardin and the party's candidates for attorney general and comptroller, Montgomery County State's Attorney Douglas F. Gansler and Del. Peter Franchot.
Democrats - including Mfume - reject the notion that the presence of only one minority candidate on their statewide ticket indicates anything about the relative inclusiveness of the two parties. There are no black Republicans in the legislature or in prominent elected positions in local governments in Maryland, the Democrats point out.
"Let's look at the Republicans," said City Councilman Keiffer J. Mitchell Jr., who is African-American and a vice chairman of the state Democratic Party. "How many candidates do they have for state Senate who are African-American? How many candidates do they have for the House of Delegates that are African-American, or some of the other races across the state for sheriff and things like that? You've got to look at the big picture."
A bright spot for the Democrats on the diversity front came in Montgomery County, where Isiah "Ike" Leggett, who is black, won the party's nomination for county executive. He is heavily favored to be the first African-American to lead a majority-white jurisdiction in Maryland.
Still, black leaders say the party faces some steep obstacles.
In most African-American communities in the state, there are no competitive races for local and legislative offices for the general election, meaning there will be less incentive for bottom-of-the-ticket candidates to turn out their supporters.
Prince George's County was host to some bitter primary battles that left the party divided there
Because Maryland is so blue most races are decided in the primary--the GOP is not credible in many local or statewide races. It is one more reason that reduces the incentive to vote on Novemebr 7th.
Also the Maryland primary voting machine problems may discourage participation.
Turnout as always is key.
Permalink | 35 comments