What criteria will the Iowan voters use for their decision? And how does the projected record turnout factor into this?
It's about halfway to dinner time in Iowa, and people are preparing to go to the caucuses, many of them for the first time. I grew up in Iowa, and I can never remember so much attention devoted to this race. One could say it's the press, looking for a story in a four-way race. Or perhaps it's the sheer organization of the Dean campaign, ferrying in campaign workers from out of state on a massive scale.
Regardless, at the end of the evening a lot of Iowans are going to go to their local precinct and talk about who to vote for. And talk some more. What criteria are they using?
So far most of what I've heard in my conversations with folks back home (I live in Portland, OR now) is that they want to know one thing: Who is going to beat Bush? This may be why there are so many undecided voters, even now--it can go any of a number of ways.
I think the main story missing so far in the press is that there are a lot of people in the heartland thinking long and hard, and in large numbers, on who has the best shot at removing Bush from office. Not just who has the best ads or who looks the nicest or who they'd like to drink a beer with; who has the best combination of domestic and international experience to defeat Bush come November.
As the economy continues its jobless "recovery" and the war keeps getting worse, a lot of people are going to ask themselves this question. Bob Dole may look like William the Conqueror next to Bush in the fall.