Just for fun, an alternate history that asks what if Ronald Reagan had picked Donald Rumsfeld as his running mate in 1980?
James Mann's Rise of the Vulcans has an interesting passage describing the maneuverings for the Vice Presidential nomination at the 1980 Republican National Convention. Ronald Reagan spent a lot of energy trying to work a deal with former president Gerald Ford whereby Ford would accept the Vice Presidency in return for near autonomy on foreign policy, a deal that ultimately foundered on the realization that a co-presidency was both unworkable and unconstitutional.
Reagan had his heart set on Ford, and hadn't thought about a Plan B candidate. Since Reagan didn't much care, future National Security Advisor Richard Allen picked up the phone and called George Bush, who happily accepted the offer.
However, also trolling for the Vice Presidency that night was another ambitious national figure named Donald Rumsfeld. Rumsfeld and Bush boasted similar resumes - stints in Congress followed by high level appointive positions.
Rumsfeld: four term Illinois congressman, cabinet-rank Nixon aide, NATO Ambassador, White House Chief of Staff for Ford, Secretary of Defense
Bush: two term Texas congressman, UN Ambassador, RNC Chairman, China envoy, CIA Director
Rumsfeld and Bush both had the moderate establishment credentials needed to balance Reagan's radical image. From the Reaganite perspective, Rumsfeld would actually have been more attractive, since he had waged and won bitter bureaucratic turf fights with the hated champion of detente, Henry Kissinger, who was an ally of the realist Bush. In fact, Allen later told Rumsfeld that the only reason Bush got the phone call that night was that Allen had Bush's number but couldn't find Rumsfeld's!
So what if Allen had called Rumsfeld that night? Rumsfeld would certainly have accepted and Reagan would still have won. As Vice President, the consummate infighter might have carved out a significant foreign policy niche in a White House culture that encouraged NSC freelancing. It's easy to picture Rumsfeld jumping into Iran-Contra with both hands and becoming the second Vice President in fifteen years to resign in disgrace. But it's just as easy to imagine Rumsfeld replicating Bush's ticket-punching record, spending eight years dispensing patronage to buy support for the 1988 presidential election, which he would probably win as readily as Bush did.
What does a Rumsfeld presidency look like? Probably a lot like Bush I. Rumsfeld doesn't suffer from a stature problem, so his Vice President is some prominent establishment figure like Bob Dole (or even a Texas Senator George Bush!). Dick Cheney gets tapped as White House Chief of Staff, clearing the road for Newt Gingrich to become House Minority Leader. President Rumsfeld developed an impatience for European-style consensus building during his tenure as NATO ambassador, and he's a stronger hawk than Bush, so he might push a little harder during the unravelling of the USSR. But he still favors Iraq as a counterweight to Iran, so his
administration sends the same signals to Saddam that trigger the Persian Gulf War. And the
economy still tanks and deficits still balloon and Rumsfeld is still prone to verbal gaffes ("Oh my goodness no, no new taxes!"), so he still gets swept out in 1992 by the man from Hope.
So in the end, the only changes are in the cast of characters. George Bush is not a former President, so his sons do not inherit gubernatorial nominations. But the cultural conservative movement is on the rise and pushing hard for its chosen candidate, the seasoned advocate for family values on the public airwaves, Indiana Senator J. Danforth Quayle...