(granted, it is a Zogby interactive poll, so take with a grain of salt..or three)
2006 New York State Governor's race
likely voters 3.6% MOE
Overall - no suprises:
Clinton (D) 53/38%
Spencer (R) 28/24%
Hawkins (G) N.A./21%
Russell (L) N.A./5%
Attorney General (Overall/among independents)
Cuomo (D) 47/31%
Pirro (R) 31/25%
Rachel Treichler (G) N.A./17%
Chris Garvey (L) N.A./11%.
Some remarkable things here:
- The Unbeatable Elliot Spitzer barely polls 50% among independents
- Hillary polls only 53% overall, and just over 1/3rd of independents, with Green candidate Howie Hawkins closing in on the Republican in terms of independent voters
- there are no overall numbers for the 3rd party candidates for Senate and Att gen, but extarpolating from the Independent voter figures, Green candidates are polling 6-8% overall, which is 3-4 times the highest statewide total ever for a green candidate
- McCourt and Clifton, at 5% & 2%, are both in good shape to get the 50,000 votes necessary to get the Green and Libertarian parties on the ballot in NY state for the next 4 years (even in a bad turnout general election, 50,000 votes is only 1 to 1.5%.)
Dems in no danger in any race here - Spitzer more than doubles Faso, Hillary is up 25%, and Cuomo is ahead by 17%, but you've gotta wonder about Hillary's 2008 dreams if she can only garner 53% in her home state. I do wonder what will happen to the State Senate races down ticket, where the Dems need just 3 seats to take over both houses in addition to the Governor's mansion.
My prediction - turnout will be LOUSY - there are no real races here...
Sadly, it looks like McCourt will not be invited to debate Spitzer and Faso as he has missed the 10% LOWV cutoff - I think all New Yorkers would agree that a debate involving Malachy McCourt will be much more interesting than one that doesn't include him.